The Conservatives would receive 39% of the vote if an election were held today, dropping one percentage point since October 15, according to a poll conducted by Abacus Data. “These results suggest that the political opinion environment has solidified to some extent,” said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto in a Monday press release. “After more than four years of a fairly competitive environment between the Liberals and Conservatives, we have clearly entered a new phase where the Conservatives have and sustain a sizeable lead over the Liberals.”Abacus Data said the Liberals would finish in second place (26%), staying the same since October 15. After the Liberals would be the NDP (18%), followed by the Bloc Quebecois (7%), the Greens (5%), and the People’s Party of Canada (4%). Regionally, Abacus Data said the Conservatives are well ahead in Western Canada. It added it leads by 8% in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, it found the Bloc Quebecois ahead by 8%, but the Conservatives (26%) would beat the Liberals (24%). This is the first time it has measured the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals in Quebec. The one regional brightspot for the Liberals is Ontario, where it trails the Conservatives by 4%. Demographically, the Conservatives lead across all age groups. It leads by 2% among 18 to 29 year olds, 12% among 30 to 44 year olds, 9% among 45 to 59 year olds, and 13% among those aged 60 and up. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh had a slight bound in his positive views. It said 37% have a positive impression of Singh compared to 32% with a negative view for a net favourable of +5. Two-fifths of Canadians said they have a positive view of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre compared with 32% who have a negative view for a net favourable rating of +8. Poilievre is now the most popular leader in Canada. For Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, impressions remain negative, although somewhat less so than one month ago. Three-tenths of Canadians have a positive view of Trudeau compared with 53% who have a negative view for a net favourable impression of -24. Trudeau’s image is about the same among men and women, and he is viewed more positively among younger Canadians. Regionally, his net favourable ratings are better in Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Quebec than they are in Western Canada. For the first time since the last election, Abacus Data asked Canadians who they thought would win the next election. By a significant margin, it said Canadians were far more likely to think the Conservatives will win than the Liberals (43% to 20%).Among Conservative supporters, 87% said they think their party will win, while a majority of Liberal supporters (59%) think their party will win. Another 14% of Liberal and 16% of NDP supporters admitted the Conservatives are most likely to win.One-tenth said they think the NDP will win, with 28% saying they are undecided.Coletto said this lead is “built on widespread dissatisfaction with the Liberal government, a broad and deep desire for change and fairly negative impressions of the Prime Minister along with improving impressions of Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre.”He acknowledged most people who support the Conservatives expect it to win, but that view is not shared among Liberal, NDP or undecided voters. This factor is important in trying to understand how voters might react and behave if that outcome feels more and more likely to them.While a path back for the Liberals is there, he called it “incredibly narrow.” Once people have a negative impression of a political party, Coletto said it is hard to change that view. Once they decide they are tired of it, he said they are less likely to listen to what they say and might discount their arguments because they have lost interest, respect or affection.“This is where the Liberals and Justin Trudeau find themselves right now,” he said. This poll comes after Trudeau said on October 26 there will be changes to the carbon tax to help people in rural areas and those who use heating oil to heat their homes. READ MORE: Trudeau drops carbon tax on heating oil, increases rebate for Atlantic Canadians“Today’s announcement is good news for Atlantic Canadians, rural Canadians and people across the country,” he said. “We are putting more money back into your pocket and making it easier for you to find affordable, long-term solutions to heat your home.”The poll was conducted through Abacus Data’s partner panels with Lucid with 2,200 Canadian adults from October 27 to November 1. It has a margin of error of +/- 12.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The Conservatives would receive 39% of the vote if an election were held today, dropping one percentage point since October 15, according to a poll conducted by Abacus Data. “These results suggest that the political opinion environment has solidified to some extent,” said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto in a Monday press release. “After more than four years of a fairly competitive environment between the Liberals and Conservatives, we have clearly entered a new phase where the Conservatives have and sustain a sizeable lead over the Liberals.”Abacus Data said the Liberals would finish in second place (26%), staying the same since October 15. After the Liberals would be the NDP (18%), followed by the Bloc Quebecois (7%), the Greens (5%), and the People’s Party of Canada (4%). Regionally, Abacus Data said the Conservatives are well ahead in Western Canada. It added it leads by 8% in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, it found the Bloc Quebecois ahead by 8%, but the Conservatives (26%) would beat the Liberals (24%). This is the first time it has measured the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals in Quebec. The one regional brightspot for the Liberals is Ontario, where it trails the Conservatives by 4%. Demographically, the Conservatives lead across all age groups. It leads by 2% among 18 to 29 year olds, 12% among 30 to 44 year olds, 9% among 45 to 59 year olds, and 13% among those aged 60 and up. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh had a slight bound in his positive views. It said 37% have a positive impression of Singh compared to 32% with a negative view for a net favourable of +5. Two-fifths of Canadians said they have a positive view of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre compared with 32% who have a negative view for a net favourable rating of +8. Poilievre is now the most popular leader in Canada. For Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, impressions remain negative, although somewhat less so than one month ago. Three-tenths of Canadians have a positive view of Trudeau compared with 53% who have a negative view for a net favourable impression of -24. Trudeau’s image is about the same among men and women, and he is viewed more positively among younger Canadians. Regionally, his net favourable ratings are better in Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Quebec than they are in Western Canada. For the first time since the last election, Abacus Data asked Canadians who they thought would win the next election. By a significant margin, it said Canadians were far more likely to think the Conservatives will win than the Liberals (43% to 20%).Among Conservative supporters, 87% said they think their party will win, while a majority of Liberal supporters (59%) think their party will win. Another 14% of Liberal and 16% of NDP supporters admitted the Conservatives are most likely to win.One-tenth said they think the NDP will win, with 28% saying they are undecided.Coletto said this lead is “built on widespread dissatisfaction with the Liberal government, a broad and deep desire for change and fairly negative impressions of the Prime Minister along with improving impressions of Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre.”He acknowledged most people who support the Conservatives expect it to win, but that view is not shared among Liberal, NDP or undecided voters. This factor is important in trying to understand how voters might react and behave if that outcome feels more and more likely to them.While a path back for the Liberals is there, he called it “incredibly narrow.” Once people have a negative impression of a political party, Coletto said it is hard to change that view. Once they decide they are tired of it, he said they are less likely to listen to what they say and might discount their arguments because they have lost interest, respect or affection.“This is where the Liberals and Justin Trudeau find themselves right now,” he said. This poll comes after Trudeau said on October 26 there will be changes to the carbon tax to help people in rural areas and those who use heating oil to heat their homes. READ MORE: Trudeau drops carbon tax on heating oil, increases rebate for Atlantic Canadians“Today’s announcement is good news for Atlantic Canadians, rural Canadians and people across the country,” he said. “We are putting more money back into your pocket and making it easier for you to find affordable, long-term solutions to heat your home.”The poll was conducted through Abacus Data’s partner panels with Lucid with 2,200 Canadian adults from October 27 to November 1. It has a margin of error of +/- 12.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
