By NIKOLA MIKOVIC.The era of frozen conflicts is coming to an end..Recent clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh – Azerbaijan’s region that has been under control of ethnic Armenian forces for 26 years – as well as in Western Sahara – a disputed territory on the northwest coast in the Maghreb region of North and West Africa – suggest that some decades old disputes could soon be resolved through bloodshed..Is Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria another point of confrontation between Russia and the West?.Transnistria – the tiny Eastern European self-proclaimed country, officially called the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), does not formally exist.. Transnistrie-RegionMap of area. Courtesy Wikipedia .It is unrecognized as a nation by any member of the UN despite declaring its independence in 1990..The only three states that recognize Transnistria are also disputed territories – Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh, also known as the Republic of Artsakh..PMR is sandwiched between Moldova in the West and Ukraine in the East. Although it is often described as a communist rule, this entity has more similarities with modern Russia than with the former Soviet Union..Its economy is dominated by oligarchs, and despite tense relations with Moldova, Transnistria preserved strong economic ties with the Eastern European country. .After Maia Sandu, a former Moldovan Prime Minister who is backed by the European Union, won the presidential election on November 15, Transistrian leaders warned that a peaceful outcome of the frozen conflict remains uncertain..During the Soviet ere, Transnistria was the richest region of Moldova..Nowadays, Moldova is the poorest European country, and the breakaway region is facing serious economic hardships. The average monthly salary is only about $200, which is why many PMR citizens immigrated to Russia. .According to local analysts, there have been attempts from Chisinau to pressure Transnistrian banks, which is why some PMR residents, primarily pensioners, have to cross the border and go to Moldova to withdraw their money. The COVID-19 pandemic is making their travel even more difficult, and Moldovan authorities reportedly blocked the import of certain goods into the territory of the PMR..In spite of that, there are no food shortages in Transnistria, and the unrecognized republic de facto gets free gas from Russia. According to the Russian energy giant Gazprom, Moldova owes $7 billion to the Russian company, even though $6.9 billion is a debt for gas supplies to PMR. That is why the Sandu recently announced that her country will not pay off the debts of Transnistria to Gazprom..“The local authorities in Transnistria did not ask Chisinau if it was interested in gas supplies from Russia. They should pay off the debts themselves”, said Sandu.. Transnistria-traffic .Ministry of State Security of the PMR recently conducted combat training of the Cossacks-border guards..Such a measure could mean that the breakaway region of Moldova is preparing for a potential conflict with Chisinau..Transnistrian army has a force of 4,500. Moldova, on the other hand, has 5,000-7,500 active personnel..Reportedly, 70 per cent of Transnistria’s budget is funded by Russia, which provides subsidized gas and worker pensions..Russia has roughly 1,500 military personnel stationed in the PMR. The peacekeeping operation in the region started in 1992 after Transnistrian and Moldovan authorities, on the initiative of then Russian president Boris Yeltsin, signed a ceasefire agreement which ended a short war that resulted in the PMR’s victory..Ever since, the truce has been holding and is being monitored by a joint peacekeeping force, which includes 402 Russian military personnel, 492 Transnistrian, 355 Moldovan and ten military observers from Ukraine..Although previous Moldovan President Igor Dodon was often portrayed as a pro-Russian leader, unlike Sandu who is seen as a politician that is pushing for stronger ties with the West, including neighbouring Romania, there is no fundamental difference between them when it comes to the presence of the Russian peacekeepers in Transnistira. They both agree that the Russians must go, although Sandu emphasizes that more often. On the other hand, the head of the unrecognized Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic Vadim Krasnoselsky said that the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers was out of the question.. POLL: Many Albertans say they will ignore Christmas COVID lockdown .“The problem remains, the Transnistrian-Moldovan issue is still open, therefore there can be no talk of the withdrawal of Russian peacekeeping forces,” Krasnoselsky stressed..Russian troops in the breakaway region are stationed on a permanent basis, even in two forms – as the remnants of the 14th Army, now the Operational Group of Russian Forces in Transnistria, and also as the peacekeeping forces of the Russian Federation. Participants in the political format of the conflict regulation are the PMR and Moldova as parties to the dispute, Russia and Ukraine as mediators and guarantors, OSCE as a mediator, while the United States and the European Union are observers..Prior to presidential election in Moldova, Russia accused the U.S. of plotting a “color revolution” in the Eastern European country. However, the voting process went smoothly and the transfer of power will almost certainly be peaceful..On the other hand, the U.S. Ambassador to Chisinau, Dereck Hogan, recently criticized the conduct of the last parliamentary elections in Moldova in February 2019 over what he called “the organized vote and transportation of voters from the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria.” This year such an action was reportedly prevented, which could be the mean reason why allegedly pro-Russian Dodon was defeated..It is worth noting that several years ago Sandu announced that she would vote for the unification of Moldova with Romania, which is something that worries Russian and Ukrainian population of Transnistira..Dodon, on the other hand, pushed stronger ties with Moscow, but unlike Transnistria that is a de facto presidential republic, Moldova has a parliamentary political system, which means that the government and the parliament have the final say on such important questions..Still, both Igor Dodon and Maia Sandu firmly reject not only the possibility of recognizing the independence of Transnistria, but even the very settlement of the conflict on the Dniester River through the confederation or federation. Also, the two politicians agree that the section of the Transnistrian-Ukrainian border should be controlled by Chisinau, rather than by the PMR forces. . Maia-SanduMaia Sandu .After the 2013/2014 violent protests in Ukraine, which resulted in the overthrow of allegedly pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine’s border policy regarding Transnistria has reportedly become more aggressive, apparently in an attempt to prevent smuggling activities. Some authors from the PMR believe that Ukraine will soon join Washington, Brussels and Bucharest in an attempt to put a strong pressure on Transnistria. Such an action could eventually result in the elimination of the PMR’s de facto statehood, and could also weaken Russian influence in the region. .“Squeezing Russia out of Transnistria is an integral part of the U.S. and the EU plans to create a ‘cordon sanitaire’ around the Russian Federation”, wrote Andrey Safonov, Transnistrian political analyst. .However, it is highly uncertain if Moscow still intends to keep this small portion of Moldova in its geopolitical orbit. On Sept. 2, the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic celebrated its 30th anniversary, but it was never recognized by Russia. Also, a referendum in 2006 expressing popular desire for Transnistria to become part of Russia was quietly rebuffed by the Kremlin..Still, if relations between the West and Russia decline further, in the foreseeable future the frozen conflict in Transnistria’s could turn into another hot war. . 404C980F-C591-4CD7-96E6-BE728D32449FNIKOLA MIKOVIC .Mikovic is a geopolitical analyst and freelance journalist specializing in Russia/Belarus/Ukraine issues.
By NIKOLA MIKOVIC.The era of frozen conflicts is coming to an end..Recent clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh – Azerbaijan’s region that has been under control of ethnic Armenian forces for 26 years – as well as in Western Sahara – a disputed territory on the northwest coast in the Maghreb region of North and West Africa – suggest that some decades old disputes could soon be resolved through bloodshed..Is Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria another point of confrontation between Russia and the West?.Transnistria – the tiny Eastern European self-proclaimed country, officially called the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), does not formally exist.. Transnistrie-RegionMap of area. Courtesy Wikipedia .It is unrecognized as a nation by any member of the UN despite declaring its independence in 1990..The only three states that recognize Transnistria are also disputed territories – Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh, also known as the Republic of Artsakh..PMR is sandwiched between Moldova in the West and Ukraine in the East. Although it is often described as a communist rule, this entity has more similarities with modern Russia than with the former Soviet Union..Its economy is dominated by oligarchs, and despite tense relations with Moldova, Transnistria preserved strong economic ties with the Eastern European country. .After Maia Sandu, a former Moldovan Prime Minister who is backed by the European Union, won the presidential election on November 15, Transistrian leaders warned that a peaceful outcome of the frozen conflict remains uncertain..During the Soviet ere, Transnistria was the richest region of Moldova..Nowadays, Moldova is the poorest European country, and the breakaway region is facing serious economic hardships. The average monthly salary is only about $200, which is why many PMR citizens immigrated to Russia. .According to local analysts, there have been attempts from Chisinau to pressure Transnistrian banks, which is why some PMR residents, primarily pensioners, have to cross the border and go to Moldova to withdraw their money. The COVID-19 pandemic is making their travel even more difficult, and Moldovan authorities reportedly blocked the import of certain goods into the territory of the PMR..In spite of that, there are no food shortages in Transnistria, and the unrecognized republic de facto gets free gas from Russia. According to the Russian energy giant Gazprom, Moldova owes $7 billion to the Russian company, even though $6.9 billion is a debt for gas supplies to PMR. That is why the Sandu recently announced that her country will not pay off the debts of Transnistria to Gazprom..“The local authorities in Transnistria did not ask Chisinau if it was interested in gas supplies from Russia. They should pay off the debts themselves”, said Sandu.. Transnistria-traffic .Ministry of State Security of the PMR recently conducted combat training of the Cossacks-border guards..Such a measure could mean that the breakaway region of Moldova is preparing for a potential conflict with Chisinau..Transnistrian army has a force of 4,500. Moldova, on the other hand, has 5,000-7,500 active personnel..Reportedly, 70 per cent of Transnistria’s budget is funded by Russia, which provides subsidized gas and worker pensions..Russia has roughly 1,500 military personnel stationed in the PMR. The peacekeeping operation in the region started in 1992 after Transnistrian and Moldovan authorities, on the initiative of then Russian president Boris Yeltsin, signed a ceasefire agreement which ended a short war that resulted in the PMR’s victory..Ever since, the truce has been holding and is being monitored by a joint peacekeeping force, which includes 402 Russian military personnel, 492 Transnistrian, 355 Moldovan and ten military observers from Ukraine..Although previous Moldovan President Igor Dodon was often portrayed as a pro-Russian leader, unlike Sandu who is seen as a politician that is pushing for stronger ties with the West, including neighbouring Romania, there is no fundamental difference between them when it comes to the presence of the Russian peacekeepers in Transnistira. They both agree that the Russians must go, although Sandu emphasizes that more often. On the other hand, the head of the unrecognized Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic Vadim Krasnoselsky said that the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers was out of the question.. POLL: Many Albertans say they will ignore Christmas COVID lockdown .“The problem remains, the Transnistrian-Moldovan issue is still open, therefore there can be no talk of the withdrawal of Russian peacekeeping forces,” Krasnoselsky stressed..Russian troops in the breakaway region are stationed on a permanent basis, even in two forms – as the remnants of the 14th Army, now the Operational Group of Russian Forces in Transnistria, and also as the peacekeeping forces of the Russian Federation. Participants in the political format of the conflict regulation are the PMR and Moldova as parties to the dispute, Russia and Ukraine as mediators and guarantors, OSCE as a mediator, while the United States and the European Union are observers..Prior to presidential election in Moldova, Russia accused the U.S. of plotting a “color revolution” in the Eastern European country. However, the voting process went smoothly and the transfer of power will almost certainly be peaceful..On the other hand, the U.S. Ambassador to Chisinau, Dereck Hogan, recently criticized the conduct of the last parliamentary elections in Moldova in February 2019 over what he called “the organized vote and transportation of voters from the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria.” This year such an action was reportedly prevented, which could be the mean reason why allegedly pro-Russian Dodon was defeated..It is worth noting that several years ago Sandu announced that she would vote for the unification of Moldova with Romania, which is something that worries Russian and Ukrainian population of Transnistira..Dodon, on the other hand, pushed stronger ties with Moscow, but unlike Transnistria that is a de facto presidential republic, Moldova has a parliamentary political system, which means that the government and the parliament have the final say on such important questions..Still, both Igor Dodon and Maia Sandu firmly reject not only the possibility of recognizing the independence of Transnistria, but even the very settlement of the conflict on the Dniester River through the confederation or federation. Also, the two politicians agree that the section of the Transnistrian-Ukrainian border should be controlled by Chisinau, rather than by the PMR forces. . Maia-SanduMaia Sandu .After the 2013/2014 violent protests in Ukraine, which resulted in the overthrow of allegedly pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine’s border policy regarding Transnistria has reportedly become more aggressive, apparently in an attempt to prevent smuggling activities. Some authors from the PMR believe that Ukraine will soon join Washington, Brussels and Bucharest in an attempt to put a strong pressure on Transnistria. Such an action could eventually result in the elimination of the PMR’s de facto statehood, and could also weaken Russian influence in the region. .“Squeezing Russia out of Transnistria is an integral part of the U.S. and the EU plans to create a ‘cordon sanitaire’ around the Russian Federation”, wrote Andrey Safonov, Transnistrian political analyst. .However, it is highly uncertain if Moscow still intends to keep this small portion of Moldova in its geopolitical orbit. On Sept. 2, the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic celebrated its 30th anniversary, but it was never recognized by Russia. Also, a referendum in 2006 expressing popular desire for Transnistria to become part of Russia was quietly rebuffed by the Kremlin..Still, if relations between the West and Russia decline further, in the foreseeable future the frozen conflict in Transnistria’s could turn into another hot war. . 404C980F-C591-4CD7-96E6-BE728D32449FNIKOLA MIKOVIC .Mikovic is a geopolitical analyst and freelance journalist specializing in Russia/Belarus/Ukraine issues.
