The change in American presidential leadership may influence Canadian foreign relations and its treatment of Huawei, experts say..Canada arrested Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou on December 1, 2018 following an extradition request from U.S. officials who alleged she violated sanctions on doing business with Iran. Canadians Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig were detained in China days later and were charged with espionage in 2020..Wanzhou remains under house arrest in Vancouver, but Donald Trump no longer remains in office. Ian Lee, professor at Carleton University, said that makes the release of Wanzhou at least possible..“Trump was the one who was really, really pushing back against China. And as a consequence, it’s been speculated, and I don’t think it’s far-fetched, that Biden could advise Canada that they have dropped the charges asking for her extradition,” Lee said in an interview..“They’ve publicly talked about resetting the relationship with China and with Iran and elsewhere, so there is a mood of change, if I can call it that in the Biden White House, that we want to do things differently from what Trump did.”.Lee said Canada was “derivative actor” in the arrest and detention of Wanzhou, which occurred on request of the Trump administration..“We are holding her at the request of our ally and partner the United States and because we have a treaty with the States,” Lee said..“But if the United States says to Canada we have decided to withdraw or drop the charges…that would solve the Meng issue and it would also remove one of the biggest irritants in US-China relations,” said Lee, who said he expects the issue will be resolved this year..Rob Huebert, professor of political science at the University of Calgary, said “we will have to wait and see” what Biden does..“For all of Trump’s bluster about anti-China and all the rest, remember the Trump administration refused to help Canada get its two Michaels released,” Huebert said in an interview. “There wasn’t a lot of help that we got on the China file from Trump, so anything Biden is going to do is going to be better.”.Huebert believes Canada will remain hard-pressed to grant Huawei permission to put up 5G networks in the country because the other Allies in the ‘five eyes’ of intelligence sharing — the US, New Zealand, Australia, and the U.K., are still opposed..“The New Zealands are in lockstep with the Australians, and now subsequently the Brits, on their evaluation of the danger of Huawei for the 5G system, so I think that this pressure is eventually going to bear on Canada. It’s just, how do you buck that?” Huebert asks..The larger context of Canada’s engagement with China may change indirectly due to a different American stance towards NATO. Huebert believes Trump’s call for NATO allies to increase military spending was fine, but his lukewarm stance towards the alliance was a “real danger.”.In May of 2017, Trump backed away from NATO’s Article 5 which says that an attack on one Ally will be considered an attack on all. One month later, he supported the idea in an impromptu comment at a press conference, but in July of that year said he would only aid NATO allies if they would “fulfill their obligations.”.Threats from the Pacific have also increased as both China and Russia have substantially increased military spending over the past 20 years..“There are those factions that want to see the western alliance system disrupted, weakened, and I think that there is plenty of evidence to point to both the Russians and Chinese on this issue,” Huebert said.
The change in American presidential leadership may influence Canadian foreign relations and its treatment of Huawei, experts say..Canada arrested Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou on December 1, 2018 following an extradition request from U.S. officials who alleged she violated sanctions on doing business with Iran. Canadians Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig were detained in China days later and were charged with espionage in 2020..Wanzhou remains under house arrest in Vancouver, but Donald Trump no longer remains in office. Ian Lee, professor at Carleton University, said that makes the release of Wanzhou at least possible..“Trump was the one who was really, really pushing back against China. And as a consequence, it’s been speculated, and I don’t think it’s far-fetched, that Biden could advise Canada that they have dropped the charges asking for her extradition,” Lee said in an interview..“They’ve publicly talked about resetting the relationship with China and with Iran and elsewhere, so there is a mood of change, if I can call it that in the Biden White House, that we want to do things differently from what Trump did.”.Lee said Canada was “derivative actor” in the arrest and detention of Wanzhou, which occurred on request of the Trump administration..“We are holding her at the request of our ally and partner the United States and because we have a treaty with the States,” Lee said..“But if the United States says to Canada we have decided to withdraw or drop the charges…that would solve the Meng issue and it would also remove one of the biggest irritants in US-China relations,” said Lee, who said he expects the issue will be resolved this year..Rob Huebert, professor of political science at the University of Calgary, said “we will have to wait and see” what Biden does..“For all of Trump’s bluster about anti-China and all the rest, remember the Trump administration refused to help Canada get its two Michaels released,” Huebert said in an interview. “There wasn’t a lot of help that we got on the China file from Trump, so anything Biden is going to do is going to be better.”.Huebert believes Canada will remain hard-pressed to grant Huawei permission to put up 5G networks in the country because the other Allies in the ‘five eyes’ of intelligence sharing — the US, New Zealand, Australia, and the U.K., are still opposed..“The New Zealands are in lockstep with the Australians, and now subsequently the Brits, on their evaluation of the danger of Huawei for the 5G system, so I think that this pressure is eventually going to bear on Canada. It’s just, how do you buck that?” Huebert asks..The larger context of Canada’s engagement with China may change indirectly due to a different American stance towards NATO. Huebert believes Trump’s call for NATO allies to increase military spending was fine, but his lukewarm stance towards the alliance was a “real danger.”.In May of 2017, Trump backed away from NATO’s Article 5 which says that an attack on one Ally will be considered an attack on all. One month later, he supported the idea in an impromptu comment at a press conference, but in July of that year said he would only aid NATO allies if they would “fulfill their obligations.”.Threats from the Pacific have also increased as both China and Russia have substantially increased military spending over the past 20 years..“There are those factions that want to see the western alliance system disrupted, weakened, and I think that there is plenty of evidence to point to both the Russians and Chinese on this issue,” Huebert said.
