The Calgary Real Estate Board’s (CREB) report covering the first quarter of 2023 shows Calgary’s housing market performed as expected, recording 5,372 sales, compared to 4,709 sales in the fourth quarter of 2022..Year-over-year, sales were down a dramatic 43%, which again was expected, as buyers got into the market ahead of the Bank of Canada’s rate hikes, setting a record of 4,104 sales last March, compared to 2,433 in March this year..“Despite the decline, sales activity has remained well above pre-pandemic levels thanks to recent gains in migration coupled with a stronger employment market,” says Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB’s chief economist..Alberta had a net population gain of 145,500 migrants, including 99,974 international migrants in 2022. Of the 45,526 inter-provincial migrants, 50.3% came from Ontario and 22.9% came from BC. There were 711,300 people employed full time in Alberta in the first quarter of 2023 and 152,967 part-time employees..A problem in the market, as in markets across the country, is the supply of homes for sale, putting downward pressures on sales and upward pressures on prices..“With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 71% and a months-of-supply of under two months in the first quarter, conditions continue to favour the seller,” says Lurie..“Further tightening in the supply-demand balance in the first quarter was enough to stop the downward price trend as the quarterly benchmark price rose over 2% in the fourth quarter to $531,200.”.“Some of the fluctuations in price were expected this year, given what happened last year, however, price growth to date has been stronger than expected. Given the limited supply currently on the market, we could expect to see some stronger price growth through spring, potentially supporting a modest annual gain in 2023.”.Lurie is expecting a “short, mild national recession over the next several quarters as higher prices weigh on consumer spending and investment activity.”.“While households and businesses in Alberta will feel the impact of inflation and higher lending rates, a stronger energy sector and migration growth will help to offset some of the effects,” she says. “As a result, while Alberta’s economic growth is expected to slow, most forecasters expect Alberta’s growth to outperform most other provinces.”.Here are Lurie’s observations by housing type and benchmark prices around the city in Q1 2023..Single-family homes.“The biggest challenge in the single-family market has been available supply in the lower price ranges. This is the only market segment where inventory has improved for homes over $700,000. Based on the first quarter benchmark price, the typical detached home is now priced at $636,167. This is a significant shift from a few years ago when detached benchmark prices were $550,000. This is causing a shift in sales toward more affordable property types like semi-detached, row and apartment condominiums. As of the first quarter, detached sales accounted for 47% of all sales activity.”.Benchmark prices around Calgary: North $590,333; Northwest $661,333; West $812,867; South $615,800; Southeast $620,600; East $397,733; City centre $791,233; Northeast $488,100..Detached homes.“Like the detached sector, limited supply has weighed on activity in this market segment. As a result, inventory levels slowed in the first quarter compared to the end of 2022 and levels reported in the first quarter of last year.”.Benchmark prices around Calgary: North $454,367; Northwest $545,467; West $685,100; South $446,500; Southeast $434,767; East $298,767; City centre $794,733; Northeast $346,967..Townhomes.“Relative affordability has drawn many purchasers to seek row/townhouse style properties. However, like the other property types, the supply levels have remained low compared to sales keeping conditions exceptionally tight, causing prices to rise to a new quarterly record high of $369,733.”.Benchmark prices around Calgary: North $353,535; Northwest $362,433; West $372,233; South $310,567; Southeast $383,000; East $208,267; City centre $519,753; Northeast $265,500..Apartments.“Sales have remained slightly lower than the high levels seen last year., as the pullback in new listings has been lower for apartment-style properties. Nonetheless, the strength in sales still prevents any significant shift in inventory levels which remain at levels not seen since 2014. In addition, the recent shift to seller’s market conditions has driven up prices.”.Benchmark prices around Calgary: North $256,900; Northwest $253,733; West $295,000; South $251,700; Southeast $297,333; East $184,667; City centre $312,667; Northeast $230,567.
The Calgary Real Estate Board’s (CREB) report covering the first quarter of 2023 shows Calgary’s housing market performed as expected, recording 5,372 sales, compared to 4,709 sales in the fourth quarter of 2022..Year-over-year, sales were down a dramatic 43%, which again was expected, as buyers got into the market ahead of the Bank of Canada’s rate hikes, setting a record of 4,104 sales last March, compared to 2,433 in March this year..“Despite the decline, sales activity has remained well above pre-pandemic levels thanks to recent gains in migration coupled with a stronger employment market,” says Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB’s chief economist..Alberta had a net population gain of 145,500 migrants, including 99,974 international migrants in 2022. Of the 45,526 inter-provincial migrants, 50.3% came from Ontario and 22.9% came from BC. There were 711,300 people employed full time in Alberta in the first quarter of 2023 and 152,967 part-time employees..A problem in the market, as in markets across the country, is the supply of homes for sale, putting downward pressures on sales and upward pressures on prices..“With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 71% and a months-of-supply of under two months in the first quarter, conditions continue to favour the seller,” says Lurie..“Further tightening in the supply-demand balance in the first quarter was enough to stop the downward price trend as the quarterly benchmark price rose over 2% in the fourth quarter to $531,200.”.“Some of the fluctuations in price were expected this year, given what happened last year, however, price growth to date has been stronger than expected. Given the limited supply currently on the market, we could expect to see some stronger price growth through spring, potentially supporting a modest annual gain in 2023.”.Lurie is expecting a “short, mild national recession over the next several quarters as higher prices weigh on consumer spending and investment activity.”.“While households and businesses in Alberta will feel the impact of inflation and higher lending rates, a stronger energy sector and migration growth will help to offset some of the effects,” she says. “As a result, while Alberta’s economic growth is expected to slow, most forecasters expect Alberta’s growth to outperform most other provinces.”.Here are Lurie’s observations by housing type and benchmark prices around the city in Q1 2023..Single-family homes.“The biggest challenge in the single-family market has been available supply in the lower price ranges. This is the only market segment where inventory has improved for homes over $700,000. Based on the first quarter benchmark price, the typical detached home is now priced at $636,167. This is a significant shift from a few years ago when detached benchmark prices were $550,000. This is causing a shift in sales toward more affordable property types like semi-detached, row and apartment condominiums. As of the first quarter, detached sales accounted for 47% of all sales activity.”.Benchmark prices around Calgary: North $590,333; Northwest $661,333; West $812,867; South $615,800; Southeast $620,600; East $397,733; City centre $791,233; Northeast $488,100..Detached homes.“Like the detached sector, limited supply has weighed on activity in this market segment. As a result, inventory levels slowed in the first quarter compared to the end of 2022 and levels reported in the first quarter of last year.”.Benchmark prices around Calgary: North $454,367; Northwest $545,467; West $685,100; South $446,500; Southeast $434,767; East $298,767; City centre $794,733; Northeast $346,967..Townhomes.“Relative affordability has drawn many purchasers to seek row/townhouse style properties. However, like the other property types, the supply levels have remained low compared to sales keeping conditions exceptionally tight, causing prices to rise to a new quarterly record high of $369,733.”.Benchmark prices around Calgary: North $353,535; Northwest $362,433; West $372,233; South $310,567; Southeast $383,000; East $208,267; City centre $519,753; Northeast $265,500..Apartments.“Sales have remained slightly lower than the high levels seen last year., as the pullback in new listings has been lower for apartment-style properties. Nonetheless, the strength in sales still prevents any significant shift in inventory levels which remain at levels not seen since 2014. In addition, the recent shift to seller’s market conditions has driven up prices.”.Benchmark prices around Calgary: North $256,900; Northwest $253,733; West $295,000; South $251,700; Southeast $297,333; East $184,667; City centre $312,667; Northeast $230,567.
