Sales on MLS Systems across Canada in February were up 4.6% from January, says a new report from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA)..The bigger story is the number of new listings that came to market last month, says Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist..“New supply bounced way up in February, which is similar to what we saw play out in 2020 and again in 2021,” says Cathcart..“The real question is what comes next? In the short term, expect at least one more month of stronger sales as the majority of those new listings came onto the market near the end of the month, so many of the associated sales likely won’t happen until early March.” .New listings increased 23.7% from January, led by large gains in Calgary and the Fraser Valley. In Calgary, 4,652 new listings came to market, a 63% increase from February 2021. Up-to-date data from the Calgary Real Estate Board show, from March 1 to March 14, 2,595 new listings have come to market, a year-over-year increase of 26%..“Ideally, listings will continue to come out in big numbers in the months ahead,” says Cathcart..“Combined with higher interest rates and higher prices, we could be at a turning point where price growth begins to slow down and inventories finally begin to recover after seven years of declines. Still, in order to turn this market back towards balance long-term, building more new homes across the spectrum remains the key.”.Over half of markets saw sales increases in February, led by big jumps in Calgary and Edmonton, with the GTA reporting sales increases above the national average..While not matching the record number of sales in February 2021, sales last month were the second highest on record for the month of February..“As expected, after a bit of a lull in January, we saw the first batch of spring 2022 listings come to market in February, and they were quickly scooped up by buyers,” says Cliff Stevenson, chair of CREA..“It’s unclear if this is the beginning of a re-emergence of some of the many would-be sellers who have been dormant for the last two years, or if the supply will fade towards the summer like it did in 2021.”.With fewer sales against increased listings, the sales-to-new-listings ratio fell back to 75.3% from 89% in January. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new-listings ratio is 55.1%..Sellers controlled about two-thirds of markets, receiving multiple offers, many over asking prices and in some cases, bidding wars..Even with increased listings, there were just 1.6 months of inventory (MOI) nationally at the end of February 2022, comparable to January 2022 and December 2021 for the lowest level ever recorded. The long-term average for MOI is a little over five months..Nationally, prices increased in February..“In line with some of the tightest market conditions ever recorded, the Aggregate Composite MLS Home Price Index* was up a record 3.5% on a month-over-month basis in February 2022,” says Cathcart. “The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS HPI was up by a record 29.2% on a year-over-year basis in February.”.The national average home sales price was a record $816,720 in February, up 20.6% from the same month last year. The national average price is heavily influenced by sales in Greater Vancouver and the GTA, Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from the calculation cuts almost $178,000 from the national average price..*The MLS HPI provides the best way to gauge price trends because averages are strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next..Myke Thomas is a Western Standard contributor
Sales on MLS Systems across Canada in February were up 4.6% from January, says a new report from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA)..The bigger story is the number of new listings that came to market last month, says Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist..“New supply bounced way up in February, which is similar to what we saw play out in 2020 and again in 2021,” says Cathcart..“The real question is what comes next? In the short term, expect at least one more month of stronger sales as the majority of those new listings came onto the market near the end of the month, so many of the associated sales likely won’t happen until early March.” .New listings increased 23.7% from January, led by large gains in Calgary and the Fraser Valley. In Calgary, 4,652 new listings came to market, a 63% increase from February 2021. Up-to-date data from the Calgary Real Estate Board show, from March 1 to March 14, 2,595 new listings have come to market, a year-over-year increase of 26%..“Ideally, listings will continue to come out in big numbers in the months ahead,” says Cathcart..“Combined with higher interest rates and higher prices, we could be at a turning point where price growth begins to slow down and inventories finally begin to recover after seven years of declines. Still, in order to turn this market back towards balance long-term, building more new homes across the spectrum remains the key.”.Over half of markets saw sales increases in February, led by big jumps in Calgary and Edmonton, with the GTA reporting sales increases above the national average..While not matching the record number of sales in February 2021, sales last month were the second highest on record for the month of February..“As expected, after a bit of a lull in January, we saw the first batch of spring 2022 listings come to market in February, and they were quickly scooped up by buyers,” says Cliff Stevenson, chair of CREA..“It’s unclear if this is the beginning of a re-emergence of some of the many would-be sellers who have been dormant for the last two years, or if the supply will fade towards the summer like it did in 2021.”.With fewer sales against increased listings, the sales-to-new-listings ratio fell back to 75.3% from 89% in January. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new-listings ratio is 55.1%..Sellers controlled about two-thirds of markets, receiving multiple offers, many over asking prices and in some cases, bidding wars..Even with increased listings, there were just 1.6 months of inventory (MOI) nationally at the end of February 2022, comparable to January 2022 and December 2021 for the lowest level ever recorded. The long-term average for MOI is a little over five months..Nationally, prices increased in February..“In line with some of the tightest market conditions ever recorded, the Aggregate Composite MLS Home Price Index* was up a record 3.5% on a month-over-month basis in February 2022,” says Cathcart. “The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS HPI was up by a record 29.2% on a year-over-year basis in February.”.The national average home sales price was a record $816,720 in February, up 20.6% from the same month last year. The national average price is heavily influenced by sales in Greater Vancouver and the GTA, Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from the calculation cuts almost $178,000 from the national average price..*The MLS HPI provides the best way to gauge price trends because averages are strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next..Myke Thomas is a Western Standard contributor