Compared to the Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto Areas, the Calgary housing market should come in for a soft landing in 2023..Signs of turbulence in the early months will be evident. .Because of the record setting pace of sales early last year, year-over-year comparisons will show large declines, but by April, the size of year-over-year declines should decrease noticeably..So says the 2023 housing forecast from the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB)..Elevated lending rates are expected to weigh on sales, the primary factor in seeing lower sales, says Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist at CREB..“Higher commodity prices, job growth, record high migration and relative affordability should help offset some of the impacts higher lending rates are having,” says Lurie. “We are entering the year with low supply levels which are expected to prevent significant price declines in our market” .Lurie is expecting sales to reach 25,921 this year, down from the record-breaking 29,672 sales last year..Housing supply will be an oft repeated topic over the course of the year, says Lurie..“Calgary has not faced supply challenges for some time, but resale inventories ended in 2022 at the lowest levels seen since the pre-financial crisis in 2005. While some of the supply challenges are expected to be addressed by the new home sector, there is no indication that current construction levels will create a scenario where we will see too much supply come onto the market,” she says..“This is especially the case with apartment-style products, where nearly half of the total starts this year are intended for the rental market. At the same time, new supply in the single-family home market tends to be at a higher price point providing limited supply relief for lower priced detached homes.”.“The larger concern is that the supply levels remain exceptionally low relative to demand, which could prevent home prices from stabilizing this year.”.The shift between supply and sales by price ranges is expected to create divergent trends in prices depending on property type and price range. Overall, price declines in the upper end of the market are expected to offset gains reported in the lower ranges, causing an annual decline of less than one per cent. .The benchmark price for all types in 2022 was $518,800 an 8% increase over 2021..“This year reflects more of an adjustment into more typical conditions and a pause on price gains following 12% growth in 2022,” says Lurie..Forecasts by home type.Single-family.“We anticipate supply levels will remain relatively low for affordable product as higher lending rates will prevent more move-up opportunities and prevent sales growth in this category,” says Lurie. “Much of the new construction tends to be targeted at the higher price ranges, limiting the options for consumers in the lower price ranges. .“Overall, single-family home prices are expected to ease by less than 2%.”.Benchmark prices at the end of 2022, by areas of the city: North $578,650, Northeast $473,675, East $381,308, Southeast $614,817, South $604,308, West $805,833, Northwest $649,633, City Centre $803,067.Semi-detached.“Sales are expected to ease relative to the past two years but remain stronger than activity reported before the pandemic as purchasers continue to seek out more affordable options in the market,” says Lurie..“Additional supply options coming from the new home market will add choice to the market. Supply gains are expected to help support more balanced conditions and take some of the pressure off prices, which are expected to stabilize in 2023.”.Benchmark prices at the end of 2022 by areas of the city: North $447,042, Northeast $335,958, East $283,642, Southeast $430,542, South $436,400, West $674,250, Northwest $539,808, City Centre $794,783.Row/townhomes.“With a shift toward more affordable housing, row sales activity hit a new record high in 2022,” says Lurie. “Like other property types, pullbacks in new listings occurred in the later part of the year, causing inventory levels to drop to some of the lowest levels seen in nearly a decade.” .“The persistently tight market conditions supported an annual price gain of nearly 15%.” .“Supply will remain relatively low in 2023 compared to sales, preventing any significant adjustment in prices.”.Benchmark prices at the end of 2022 by areas of the city: North $337,725, Northeast $247,692, East $198,725, Southeast $360,150, South $291,850, West $368,650, Northwest $352,675, City Centre $497,983.Apartments.This sector had one of its most successful years ever in 2022. .“Sales activity was higher than the previous year in every month, contributing to a new record-high, driven by those looking for affordable options in the housing market,” says Lurie. “Rising rental rates are also thought to have increased condominium ownership demand from investors.”.Activity in the sector will cool in 2023.."The affordability of apartment condominiums and rising rental rates are expected to keep ownership sales above long-term trends. Overall benchmark prices are expected to stabilize this year, with a modest annual growth of one per cent.”.Benchmark prices at the end of 2022 by areas of the city: North $240,908, Northeast $211,433, East $171,608, Southeast $275,925, South $235,775, West $282,292, Northwest $240,833, City Centre $300,242
Compared to the Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto Areas, the Calgary housing market should come in for a soft landing in 2023..Signs of turbulence in the early months will be evident. .Because of the record setting pace of sales early last year, year-over-year comparisons will show large declines, but by April, the size of year-over-year declines should decrease noticeably..So says the 2023 housing forecast from the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB)..Elevated lending rates are expected to weigh on sales, the primary factor in seeing lower sales, says Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist at CREB..“Higher commodity prices, job growth, record high migration and relative affordability should help offset some of the impacts higher lending rates are having,” says Lurie. “We are entering the year with low supply levels which are expected to prevent significant price declines in our market” .Lurie is expecting sales to reach 25,921 this year, down from the record-breaking 29,672 sales last year..Housing supply will be an oft repeated topic over the course of the year, says Lurie..“Calgary has not faced supply challenges for some time, but resale inventories ended in 2022 at the lowest levels seen since the pre-financial crisis in 2005. While some of the supply challenges are expected to be addressed by the new home sector, there is no indication that current construction levels will create a scenario where we will see too much supply come onto the market,” she says..“This is especially the case with apartment-style products, where nearly half of the total starts this year are intended for the rental market. At the same time, new supply in the single-family home market tends to be at a higher price point providing limited supply relief for lower priced detached homes.”.“The larger concern is that the supply levels remain exceptionally low relative to demand, which could prevent home prices from stabilizing this year.”.The shift between supply and sales by price ranges is expected to create divergent trends in prices depending on property type and price range. Overall, price declines in the upper end of the market are expected to offset gains reported in the lower ranges, causing an annual decline of less than one per cent. .The benchmark price for all types in 2022 was $518,800 an 8% increase over 2021..“This year reflects more of an adjustment into more typical conditions and a pause on price gains following 12% growth in 2022,” says Lurie..Forecasts by home type.Single-family.“We anticipate supply levels will remain relatively low for affordable product as higher lending rates will prevent more move-up opportunities and prevent sales growth in this category,” says Lurie. “Much of the new construction tends to be targeted at the higher price ranges, limiting the options for consumers in the lower price ranges. .“Overall, single-family home prices are expected to ease by less than 2%.”.Benchmark prices at the end of 2022, by areas of the city: North $578,650, Northeast $473,675, East $381,308, Southeast $614,817, South $604,308, West $805,833, Northwest $649,633, City Centre $803,067.Semi-detached.“Sales are expected to ease relative to the past two years but remain stronger than activity reported before the pandemic as purchasers continue to seek out more affordable options in the market,” says Lurie..“Additional supply options coming from the new home market will add choice to the market. Supply gains are expected to help support more balanced conditions and take some of the pressure off prices, which are expected to stabilize in 2023.”.Benchmark prices at the end of 2022 by areas of the city: North $447,042, Northeast $335,958, East $283,642, Southeast $430,542, South $436,400, West $674,250, Northwest $539,808, City Centre $794,783.Row/townhomes.“With a shift toward more affordable housing, row sales activity hit a new record high in 2022,” says Lurie. “Like other property types, pullbacks in new listings occurred in the later part of the year, causing inventory levels to drop to some of the lowest levels seen in nearly a decade.” .“The persistently tight market conditions supported an annual price gain of nearly 15%.” .“Supply will remain relatively low in 2023 compared to sales, preventing any significant adjustment in prices.”.Benchmark prices at the end of 2022 by areas of the city: North $337,725, Northeast $247,692, East $198,725, Southeast $360,150, South $291,850, West $368,650, Northwest $352,675, City Centre $497,983.Apartments.This sector had one of its most successful years ever in 2022. .“Sales activity was higher than the previous year in every month, contributing to a new record-high, driven by those looking for affordable options in the housing market,” says Lurie. “Rising rental rates are also thought to have increased condominium ownership demand from investors.”.Activity in the sector will cool in 2023.."The affordability of apartment condominiums and rising rental rates are expected to keep ownership sales above long-term trends. Overall benchmark prices are expected to stabilize this year, with a modest annual growth of one per cent.”.Benchmark prices at the end of 2022 by areas of the city: North $240,908, Northeast $211,433, East $171,608, Southeast $275,925, South $235,775, West $282,292, Northwest $240,833, City Centre $300,242
