Home sales across Canada had a modest decrease from October to November, says the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), erasing a small month-over-month increase from September to October and returning to a moderating sales trend that began back in February..“About 60% of markets saw lower sales in November, led by Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, Edmonton, the Greater Toronto Area and Montreal,” says Jill Oudil, chair of CREA..On a year-over-year basis, sales in November were 38.9% below sales in November last year, which was a near-record for the month of November..Expect the same type of reports from CREA for home sales from December through March 2023 with year-over-year sales declines in the area of 35% to 40%, perhaps higher. .Sales in December 2021 were at levels housing markets had never seen before for the month, with sales in the fourth quarter of last year 61% higher than the 1988–2019 Q4 average, and second only to the fourth quarter of 2020..In the first three months 2022, sales were second only to the record number of sales in the first three months of 2021, and in the area of 45% higher than the 2000–2019 January average..As such, November's numbers were expected, says Oudil..“There were no big surprises in the November housing numbers, with the data showing the same trends of lower sales and moderating prices we’ve been seeing for a number of months now,” she says. “That said, while the interest rate situation facing buyers is unlikely to improve over the first half of 2023, it is more likely to remain the same.”.“However, it may also be the first spring market in a number of years where buyers have a shot at not having to compete for properties that catch their eye.” .“November was pretty quiet and that is unlikely to improve this winter with the Bank of Canada raising rates again last week,” says Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist. “It will be interesting to see what buyers do when listings start to come out in big numbers in the spring, and even more interesting to see what happens a little later then the Bank of Canada, now widely thought to be at or very near the top of its tightening cycle, starts to eventually cut rates.”.“All the other fundamental factors needed for the market to take off again are still out there.”.The Aggregate Composite MLS Home Price Index edged down 1.4% on a month-over-month basis in November 2022, continuing the trend that began back in the spring, says Cathcart..“The aggregate composite now sits about 11.5% below its peak level,” he says. “Breaking that down regionally, the general trend is prices are down somewhat more than they are nationally in Ontario and parts of B.C., and down by less elsewhere. While prices have softened to some degree almost everywhere, Calgary, Regina and Saskatoon stand out as markets where home prices are barely off their peaks at all.”.The national average home price was $632,802 in November, down 12% from the same month last year. .The national average price is heavily influenced by sales in Greater Vancouver and the GTA, Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from the calculation cuts more than $123,000 from the national average price..Supporting stronger prices is a lack of supply, with the number of newly listed homes edging down 1.3% on a month-over-month basis in November. New listings fell in slightly more than half of local markets. Among the larger markets in Canada month-over-month movements in new supply were generally small, the only exception being some larger declines in the B.C. Lower Mainland and Okanagan regions, says Oudil..“In terms of monthly new supply, the bigger picture is listings are not flooding the market. With the one exception of 2019, November 2022 saw the fewest new listings for that month in 17 years,” she says..“Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, about 70% of local markets are currently in balanced market territory."
Home sales across Canada had a modest decrease from October to November, says the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), erasing a small month-over-month increase from September to October and returning to a moderating sales trend that began back in February..“About 60% of markets saw lower sales in November, led by Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, Edmonton, the Greater Toronto Area and Montreal,” says Jill Oudil, chair of CREA..On a year-over-year basis, sales in November were 38.9% below sales in November last year, which was a near-record for the month of November..Expect the same type of reports from CREA for home sales from December through March 2023 with year-over-year sales declines in the area of 35% to 40%, perhaps higher. .Sales in December 2021 were at levels housing markets had never seen before for the month, with sales in the fourth quarter of last year 61% higher than the 1988–2019 Q4 average, and second only to the fourth quarter of 2020..In the first three months 2022, sales were second only to the record number of sales in the first three months of 2021, and in the area of 45% higher than the 2000–2019 January average..As such, November's numbers were expected, says Oudil..“There were no big surprises in the November housing numbers, with the data showing the same trends of lower sales and moderating prices we’ve been seeing for a number of months now,” she says. “That said, while the interest rate situation facing buyers is unlikely to improve over the first half of 2023, it is more likely to remain the same.”.“However, it may also be the first spring market in a number of years where buyers have a shot at not having to compete for properties that catch their eye.” .“November was pretty quiet and that is unlikely to improve this winter with the Bank of Canada raising rates again last week,” says Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist. “It will be interesting to see what buyers do when listings start to come out in big numbers in the spring, and even more interesting to see what happens a little later then the Bank of Canada, now widely thought to be at or very near the top of its tightening cycle, starts to eventually cut rates.”.“All the other fundamental factors needed for the market to take off again are still out there.”.The Aggregate Composite MLS Home Price Index edged down 1.4% on a month-over-month basis in November 2022, continuing the trend that began back in the spring, says Cathcart..“The aggregate composite now sits about 11.5% below its peak level,” he says. “Breaking that down regionally, the general trend is prices are down somewhat more than they are nationally in Ontario and parts of B.C., and down by less elsewhere. While prices have softened to some degree almost everywhere, Calgary, Regina and Saskatoon stand out as markets where home prices are barely off their peaks at all.”.The national average home price was $632,802 in November, down 12% from the same month last year. .The national average price is heavily influenced by sales in Greater Vancouver and the GTA, Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from the calculation cuts more than $123,000 from the national average price..Supporting stronger prices is a lack of supply, with the number of newly listed homes edging down 1.3% on a month-over-month basis in November. New listings fell in slightly more than half of local markets. Among the larger markets in Canada month-over-month movements in new supply were generally small, the only exception being some larger declines in the B.C. Lower Mainland and Okanagan regions, says Oudil..“In terms of monthly new supply, the bigger picture is listings are not flooding the market. With the one exception of 2019, November 2022 saw the fewest new listings for that month in 17 years,” she says..“Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, about 70% of local markets are currently in balanced market territory."
