Exclusive Poll: Support for Alberta independence hits new high

Graphic by Melanie Risdon/the Western Standard

Support for making Alberta an independent country now sits at a whopping 40% in the province, a new poll commissioned exclusively for the Western Standard shows.

Conducted by Mainstreet Research, the poll shows support for independence is now only five percentage points behind the support for staying within Canada, which now sits at 45%.

A total of 15% of people asked said they weren’t sure when asked: “Would you support Alberta independence, either on its own or along with other Western Provinces?”

With the undecided removed from the counting, a total of 53% of Albertans want to stay while 47% want to strike out on their own.

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Courtesy Mainstreet Research

 Support for independence is strongest in rural Northern Alberta where it sits at 51%

Residents of the two big cities were most opposed to independence. In Edmonton, only 31% support the idea with 56% saying no. In Calgary, 39% agreed with 48% opposed.

Support and opposition for independence also broke down largely along partisan lines.

Not surprisingly, supporters of the Wildrose Independence Party back the move with 82% in favour. For UCP voters, 65% are in favour, the Alberta Party at 80%, Liberals at 21% and the NDP at 9%.

Subsamples for the Alberta Party and Liberals contain a larger margin of error due to their smaller vote-share.

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Courtesy Mainstreet Research

How respondents to the poll felt toward mandatory vaccination also correlated with support for independence, with 90% of those saying they will not get a COVID-19 jab in support of independence. Those who had received their two doses were 55% against independence.

Mainstreet President and CEO Quito Maggi described the number of people supporting independence as “really high”.

“It speaks to the mood of the electorate right now after going through tough economic times, COVID and low energy prices,” said Maggi.

“Everyone thought things would return to being 100% perfect when Jason Kenney was elected and people have become disillusioned.”

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Courtesy Mainstreet Research

The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on October 12-13, 2021 among a sample of 935 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Alberta. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population in Alberta. 

The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.2% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding. 

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