It’s been long known, but never said aloud by the man himself: Alberta Premier Jason Kenney has a problem with his base..During a tense caucus meeting Sunday, a UCP MLA questioned if the leader of the party should so publicly and derisively attack the attendees of the ‘End the Lockdown Rodeo’ in Bowden, Alberta, since these people were the party’s core base..“If they are our base, I want a new base” said Kenney..Three UCP MLAs confirmed that the premier said this to the Western Standard’s Dave Naylor..It’s a frank and sobering admission from the man that fired up that party’s base when he led the effort to fuse together the Wildrose and Progressive Conservative parties..The UCP base is dominantly former Wildrose voters, concentrated in rural Alberta and the suburban neighbourhoods of Calgary. They are largely populist, anti-Ottawa, sometimes sovereigntist, and overwhelmingly anti-lockdown..Long before Kenney put Alberta back under a third lockdown, this base has been increasingly unhappy with their man..The man who railed against the Laurentian elites on his way to the Premier’s Office, hired Laurentian elites by the busload to staff said office..A poll last month showed an incredible 75% of Albertans disapprove of how Kenney has handled the COVID-19 pandemic, down from an 80% approval the year before. Those 75% disagreeing with him are made up of left-leaning voters who want to see ever-harsher lockdowns and restrictions, and even more-so of right-leaning voters who believe that he has been far too harsh..In fact, a clear majority of UCP voters oppose the UCP’s lockdown policies. Those numbers do not include the roughly 10% of voters who have already decamped the big blue tent for the upstart Wildrose Independence Party..Kenney has admitted that he has a problem with his base, but the base has increasingly had a problem with him, spurred on by, but preceding COVID-19..The re-election of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in October 2019 saw an outburst of support for independence in the province, which Mainstreet Research pegged at 35% in January of 2021. This 35% may not be a majority of Albertans, but it does make up the majority of the UCP voter base..Kenney’s response to this movement amongst his base was to strike the ‘Fair Deal Panel’. He did talk tough and promise serious consideration of a series of firewall measures to keep Ottawa at bay, while remaining in confederation..The traveling Fair Deal roadshow did much to work sovereignties up into a lather, but delivered relatively little in its final report..This comes to the crux of Jason Kenney’s problem with his base..For Kenney’s nearly 20 years in Ottawa, “the base” has mostly been made up of social conservatives. Canadian social conservatives are the democratic world’s most easy electorate to manage for a conservative party. With a few exceptions, most Canadian social conservatives do not demand action on their policy objectives in exchange for support; only respect and the right to be heard within the larger Conservative tent..Learning at the feet of Stephen Harper, Kenney learned that by just listening to their frustrations, they would vote, donate, and volunteer in massive numbers, in exchange for relatively little..This is “the base” that Jason Kenney believed he was coming to lead in Alberta. As he is learning now, it is not..“The base” in Alberta provincial politics does contain social conservative elements, but overlaps in a Venn diagram with anti-Ottawa/sovereigntist, anti-establishment populists, agriculture and energy interests, libertarians, and landowners..The former Wildrose Party was less a ‘party’, than a movement of largely independent-minded individuals who shared a common enemy: the Progressive Conservatives. This is why the Wildrose was always so difficult a task for Danielle Smith and Brian Jean to lead. It is not the low-maintenance monolith that Jason Kenney believed it to be..Kenney is now appalled that “the base” in Alberta demands more than the lip service that normally did the trick in federal politics. They are not content with mere respect..Now, even that respect appears to be gone. As the rogue rodeo in Bowden went forward despite his government’s best efforts, he blasted the attendees. The event itself was “disturbing”. The people there were “selfish”. The people there don’t care for the vulnerable..Kenney’s declaration that he wants a “new base” – while not intended to ever be heard by the base – is an admission that he can no longer dance with the lady that brung’ em’. It is increasingly hostile to his policies and leadership..Try as they might, “the base” is unlikely to succeed in pushing Kenney out of the party’s leadership. He is just too strong a political operative to allow that to happen. A leadership review vote demanded by angry UCP members will – come hell or high water – in all probability fail to dislodge him. And a potential caucus effort to remove him directly from the premiership could be met by his wild threat to them of an early election..In the end, Kenney isn’t likely going anywhere until he faces voters in 2023..The base will have to make a decision: hold their noses and support their perceived lesser evil, or leave the party and join a new conservative civil war..The base has had a growing problem with Jason Kenney for some time. Now Kenney has a problem with the base..Derek Fildebrandt is the Publisher of the Western Standard
It’s been long known, but never said aloud by the man himself: Alberta Premier Jason Kenney has a problem with his base..During a tense caucus meeting Sunday, a UCP MLA questioned if the leader of the party should so publicly and derisively attack the attendees of the ‘End the Lockdown Rodeo’ in Bowden, Alberta, since these people were the party’s core base..“If they are our base, I want a new base” said Kenney..Three UCP MLAs confirmed that the premier said this to the Western Standard’s Dave Naylor..It’s a frank and sobering admission from the man that fired up that party’s base when he led the effort to fuse together the Wildrose and Progressive Conservative parties..The UCP base is dominantly former Wildrose voters, concentrated in rural Alberta and the suburban neighbourhoods of Calgary. They are largely populist, anti-Ottawa, sometimes sovereigntist, and overwhelmingly anti-lockdown..Long before Kenney put Alberta back under a third lockdown, this base has been increasingly unhappy with their man..The man who railed against the Laurentian elites on his way to the Premier’s Office, hired Laurentian elites by the busload to staff said office..A poll last month showed an incredible 75% of Albertans disapprove of how Kenney has handled the COVID-19 pandemic, down from an 80% approval the year before. Those 75% disagreeing with him are made up of left-leaning voters who want to see ever-harsher lockdowns and restrictions, and even more-so of right-leaning voters who believe that he has been far too harsh..In fact, a clear majority of UCP voters oppose the UCP’s lockdown policies. Those numbers do not include the roughly 10% of voters who have already decamped the big blue tent for the upstart Wildrose Independence Party..Kenney has admitted that he has a problem with his base, but the base has increasingly had a problem with him, spurred on by, but preceding COVID-19..The re-election of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in October 2019 saw an outburst of support for independence in the province, which Mainstreet Research pegged at 35% in January of 2021. This 35% may not be a majority of Albertans, but it does make up the majority of the UCP voter base..Kenney’s response to this movement amongst his base was to strike the ‘Fair Deal Panel’. He did talk tough and promise serious consideration of a series of firewall measures to keep Ottawa at bay, while remaining in confederation..The traveling Fair Deal roadshow did much to work sovereignties up into a lather, but delivered relatively little in its final report..This comes to the crux of Jason Kenney’s problem with his base..For Kenney’s nearly 20 years in Ottawa, “the base” has mostly been made up of social conservatives. Canadian social conservatives are the democratic world’s most easy electorate to manage for a conservative party. With a few exceptions, most Canadian social conservatives do not demand action on their policy objectives in exchange for support; only respect and the right to be heard within the larger Conservative tent..Learning at the feet of Stephen Harper, Kenney learned that by just listening to their frustrations, they would vote, donate, and volunteer in massive numbers, in exchange for relatively little..This is “the base” that Jason Kenney believed he was coming to lead in Alberta. As he is learning now, it is not..“The base” in Alberta provincial politics does contain social conservative elements, but overlaps in a Venn diagram with anti-Ottawa/sovereigntist, anti-establishment populists, agriculture and energy interests, libertarians, and landowners..The former Wildrose Party was less a ‘party’, than a movement of largely independent-minded individuals who shared a common enemy: the Progressive Conservatives. This is why the Wildrose was always so difficult a task for Danielle Smith and Brian Jean to lead. It is not the low-maintenance monolith that Jason Kenney believed it to be..Kenney is now appalled that “the base” in Alberta demands more than the lip service that normally did the trick in federal politics. They are not content with mere respect..Now, even that respect appears to be gone. As the rogue rodeo in Bowden went forward despite his government’s best efforts, he blasted the attendees. The event itself was “disturbing”. The people there were “selfish”. The people there don’t care for the vulnerable..Kenney’s declaration that he wants a “new base” – while not intended to ever be heard by the base – is an admission that he can no longer dance with the lady that brung’ em’. It is increasingly hostile to his policies and leadership..Try as they might, “the base” is unlikely to succeed in pushing Kenney out of the party’s leadership. He is just too strong a political operative to allow that to happen. A leadership review vote demanded by angry UCP members will – come hell or high water – in all probability fail to dislodge him. And a potential caucus effort to remove him directly from the premiership could be met by his wild threat to them of an early election..In the end, Kenney isn’t likely going anywhere until he faces voters in 2023..The base will have to make a decision: hold their noses and support their perceived lesser evil, or leave the party and join a new conservative civil war..The base has had a growing problem with Jason Kenney for some time. Now Kenney has a problem with the base..Derek Fildebrandt is the Publisher of the Western Standard
