Danielle Smith is the undisputed Lazarus of Alberta politics..Left for dead after her ruinous floor-crossing in December 2014, her victory in the United Conservative Party's (UCP) leadership — and as premier-elect of Alberta — is perhaps the greatest political comeback in Canadian history..She comes to power as Alberta and the broader conservative movement stands at a crossroads. As Pierre Poilievre's federal win signalled a pivot away from 'centrist', establishment tory-ism federally, Smith's win here in Alberta will — if she stays true to her commitments — herald the replacement of the old Tory establishment, an infusion of libertarianism into the party's hierarchy, and open war with Ottawa..Up until the very morning of the leadership vote, outgoing Premier Jason Kenney was busy making official government announcements, grasping for media attention at the expense of his successor. He spent his final months in office making announcements as if he hadn't been thrown out by his own party and openly attacking Smith, something without precedent in the history of intra-party successions in Canada. .Unfortunately for Kenney, his missives appear to have mostly helped her win over UCP members who want a radical departure from business as usual. Those who backed Smith are made up — broadly speaking — of two major overlapping populist groups. .The first are Albertans angry at Kenney's handling of COVID-19. Repeated on-again, off-again lockdowns, mandatory masking, and forced vaccination created an army of 'folk-libertarians' who saw his government as the enemy of individual liberty. To them, Smith promised it would never happen again, and a conduit to express that anger at the Tory establishment that did it. Barring another surge in COVID-19, this should be a relatively easy promise for Smith to keep. .The second major group of Smith supporters are the sovereigntists, a group that includes a spectrum of views ranging from the federal-phobic — who want to aggressively build firewalls to shield Alberta from Ottawa — to those favouring full independence. The proposed Sovereignty Act is clearly on the federal-phobic side of that spectrum, but its name — implying much more — has successfully rallied many independence supporters to her banner. .Smith's greatest perils as leader and premier will come from navigating the Sovereignty Act and other Alberta-first policies (police, pensions, etc) through to reality, while winning the party establishment and broader public to her side..A solid majority (64%) of UCP voters are supportive of the Sovereignty Act according to a Mainstreet Research poll commissioned by the Western Standard. But a plurality of Albertans-at-large (41%) are opposed. The good news for Smith is a sizeable minority (25%) are still unsure..With the bigger stage that comes with the premier's office, she will have the (challenging) opportunity to win these people to her side. .But even if she succeeds in doing so, she has the difficult task ahead of winning over those in her own party who have publicly declared the Sovereignty Act to be anathema. Surely, some who opposed it did so out of (poorly placed) political opportunism to set themselves apart from Smith. Still others opposed it out of genuine principle. To win these people over, she promised broad consultation with the UCP caucus, and shown early signs that the Sovereignty Act may have a few of its pointer teeth defanged. .Which presents Smith a serious dilemma: watering down her signature legislation to pacify her critics (internal and external,) or delivering the open war with Ottawa her supporters expect. The perils of this balance should not be lost on her. Kenney won the UCP leadership and the premier's office on a similar pledge: Beat Ottawa bloody and a referendum on equalization that would make that scheme less inequitable. Kenney managed a few small tangible wins (like appointing an Alberta chief firearms officer,) but mostly just mailed angry letters of protest to Justin Trudeau. .Like Kenney, Smith has set some very high expectations on this front. Failure to deliver could sow the seeds of internal discontent that has proven the bane of every PC/UCP leader since Ralph Klein's last election in 2004..She faces further unity challenges in how she handles the Tory establishment and certain Kenney-ites at the staff, caucus, and cabinet levels. For the most part, she would be wise to be magnanimous and move past the tribal battles over the last year. A few acts of forgiveness and graciousness will go a long way to heal the wounds that fester. .But, there will be a small cast of characters which should probably be shown the door. Cabinet ministers that oversaw the most egregious rights violations during COVID-19 should face the same fate they forced on unvaccinated workers; that is, lose their jobs. Some Kenney-ites also had their nominations protected from anti-Kenney challengers on dubious grounds. If Smith is going to walk the grassroots talk, she needs to ensure the party reopens these nominations for free and fair votes..All of this would be sure to ruffle some feathers, but that's exactly what Smith was elected by her party members to do..The expectations are high, and the challenges she faces in fulfilling them higher still.
Danielle Smith is the undisputed Lazarus of Alberta politics..Left for dead after her ruinous floor-crossing in December 2014, her victory in the United Conservative Party's (UCP) leadership — and as premier-elect of Alberta — is perhaps the greatest political comeback in Canadian history..She comes to power as Alberta and the broader conservative movement stands at a crossroads. As Pierre Poilievre's federal win signalled a pivot away from 'centrist', establishment tory-ism federally, Smith's win here in Alberta will — if she stays true to her commitments — herald the replacement of the old Tory establishment, an infusion of libertarianism into the party's hierarchy, and open war with Ottawa..Up until the very morning of the leadership vote, outgoing Premier Jason Kenney was busy making official government announcements, grasping for media attention at the expense of his successor. He spent his final months in office making announcements as if he hadn't been thrown out by his own party and openly attacking Smith, something without precedent in the history of intra-party successions in Canada. .Unfortunately for Kenney, his missives appear to have mostly helped her win over UCP members who want a radical departure from business as usual. Those who backed Smith are made up — broadly speaking — of two major overlapping populist groups. .The first are Albertans angry at Kenney's handling of COVID-19. Repeated on-again, off-again lockdowns, mandatory masking, and forced vaccination created an army of 'folk-libertarians' who saw his government as the enemy of individual liberty. To them, Smith promised it would never happen again, and a conduit to express that anger at the Tory establishment that did it. Barring another surge in COVID-19, this should be a relatively easy promise for Smith to keep. .The second major group of Smith supporters are the sovereigntists, a group that includes a spectrum of views ranging from the federal-phobic — who want to aggressively build firewalls to shield Alberta from Ottawa — to those favouring full independence. The proposed Sovereignty Act is clearly on the federal-phobic side of that spectrum, but its name — implying much more — has successfully rallied many independence supporters to her banner. .Smith's greatest perils as leader and premier will come from navigating the Sovereignty Act and other Alberta-first policies (police, pensions, etc) through to reality, while winning the party establishment and broader public to her side..A solid majority (64%) of UCP voters are supportive of the Sovereignty Act according to a Mainstreet Research poll commissioned by the Western Standard. But a plurality of Albertans-at-large (41%) are opposed. The good news for Smith is a sizeable minority (25%) are still unsure..With the bigger stage that comes with the premier's office, she will have the (challenging) opportunity to win these people to her side. .But even if she succeeds in doing so, she has the difficult task ahead of winning over those in her own party who have publicly declared the Sovereignty Act to be anathema. Surely, some who opposed it did so out of (poorly placed) political opportunism to set themselves apart from Smith. Still others opposed it out of genuine principle. To win these people over, she promised broad consultation with the UCP caucus, and shown early signs that the Sovereignty Act may have a few of its pointer teeth defanged. .Which presents Smith a serious dilemma: watering down her signature legislation to pacify her critics (internal and external,) or delivering the open war with Ottawa her supporters expect. The perils of this balance should not be lost on her. Kenney won the UCP leadership and the premier's office on a similar pledge: Beat Ottawa bloody and a referendum on equalization that would make that scheme less inequitable. Kenney managed a few small tangible wins (like appointing an Alberta chief firearms officer,) but mostly just mailed angry letters of protest to Justin Trudeau. .Like Kenney, Smith has set some very high expectations on this front. Failure to deliver could sow the seeds of internal discontent that has proven the bane of every PC/UCP leader since Ralph Klein's last election in 2004..She faces further unity challenges in how she handles the Tory establishment and certain Kenney-ites at the staff, caucus, and cabinet levels. For the most part, she would be wise to be magnanimous and move past the tribal battles over the last year. A few acts of forgiveness and graciousness will go a long way to heal the wounds that fester. .But, there will be a small cast of characters which should probably be shown the door. Cabinet ministers that oversaw the most egregious rights violations during COVID-19 should face the same fate they forced on unvaccinated workers; that is, lose their jobs. Some Kenney-ites also had their nominations protected from anti-Kenney challengers on dubious grounds. If Smith is going to walk the grassroots talk, she needs to ensure the party reopens these nominations for free and fair votes..All of this would be sure to ruffle some feathers, but that's exactly what Smith was elected by her party members to do..The expectations are high, and the challenges she faces in fulfilling them higher still.