There is blood on the floor of the Alberta Legislature as Premier Jason Kenney hoisted the severed political heads of his former Minister of Municipal Affairs Tracey Allard and Chief of Staff Jamie Huckabay and placed them gracefully upon a pike. But six other UCP snowbird MLAs and several senior staffers remain mostly unpunished and sitting comfortably in the UCP caucus benches..The punditocracy are divided as to whether this will be enough to satisfy Albertans’ political blood lust or not, but the big question remains: was Jason Kenney telling the truth when he said he knew nothing about his sun-bound ministers, MLAs, and staff during his lockdown, or not? .We are getting closer to the hard truth as we keep digging. While Kenney says that he was only made aware of Allard’s travels on December 29, we have obtained a memo showing that 13 days earlier, he was informed that she would be away. The memo doesn’t show where she was headed, however Kenney is on the record as saying that he had virtual cabinet committee meetings with her while she was avoiding the Kenney government’s own lockdown and non-essential travel restrictions. .After we published the story, the premier’s spokesman claimed that Kenney never saw the memo. Believe it if you like..The government is asking us to believe that avowed workaholic Premier Jason Kenney did not read a memo from the Minister that chairs Alberta’s COVID-19 emergency response committee..Read that last sentence back to yourself out loud..One key Kenney insider doesn’t believe any of it. Speaking on condition of anonymity, a former Tory minister and Kenney ally told the Western Standard’s Dave Naylor that it was “inconceivable” that Kenney did not know where one of his ministers – and especially his chief of staff – was..“It is inconceivable [Kenney] wouldn’t know Allard was travelling,” the source said..For the record, this source is not Thomas Lukaszuk, a well-known Kenney critic. It is an ally close and generally supportive of the premier..In my own experience in politics, a politician who has a chief of staff speaks to them at least once a day, often even on weekends. And they always know where they are. It beggars belief that a seasoned, control-freak senior politician would have no idea that his chief of staff was vacationing overseas for weeks..Believe it if you like..Kenney may have presented the political corpse of Allard and his chief of staff, but the other six MLAs and numerous senior staffers have made it through relatively unscathed. The pundits will sift through the entrails of the sacrifice. What will they find?.My modest prediction is the the hardest-core of the hardcore Tory partisans will say that this is enough. They got a head. It bleed. It rolled down the pyramid. The gods are appeased..But the wider political consequences could be much more damaging. Alberta Institute President Peter McCaffrey put is succinctly in Twitter’s narrow contains:.“I don’t think the UCP realize how bad this is yet. ~35% of AB (mostly WRP) already think the restrictions go too far. ~35% (mostly NDP) think they hadn’t taken away enough freedoms. ~30% (mostly PC) were grudgingly accepting them as the best of all bad options.”.McCaffrey summed up Alberta’s political tribes roughly, but more-a-less accurately..The collectivist tribe (led by the NDP) can rightfully (in their view) claim that the UCP has undermined the lockdown through their actions..Similarly, the Wildrose tribe (for now, officially a part of the UCP flag) can claim that the authoritarian lockdown and restrictions went too far, and aren’t even upheld by the politicians responsible for imposing them. How could the government not respecting their own lockdown possibly justify continuing it?.The third tribe of Alberta – the Progressive Conservatives – have gone along with their government, grudgingly. It’s all a mess, and it’s best to trust the man in charge..But the Great Snowbird Scandal of 2021 has shaken even that faith. Many centrists willing to tow the government line have now lost faith in that government. Expect some who support the lockdowns to continue doing so, but believe that the UCP no longer has the moral authority to be the ones imposing it; while other centrists are likely to move into the anti-lockdown camp..This all serves to leave Kenney with an increasingly narrow base of loyal supporters..This is the problem with a government implementing policies that many of them never really believed in to begin with. I’ve given Kenney his due in this space previously for at least being more hesitant than others to impose lockdowns, but ultimately caving to pressure from the media and NDP..Many UCP MLAs will quietly say behind closed doors they don’t believe that a second lockdown was the right answer, but are too afraid to take a stand against their own government publicly. Without belief in the lockdown – or the courage to fight it – they simply didn’t see much wrong with hopping on a jet they tell others not to..As bad as it is right now, it may all be about to get worse. The UCP cabinet will be faced in just a few days with the renewal of the lockdown as the cabinet order of December expires..Kenney and his cabinet will be forced to make a very public decision on the most volatile policy issue of our time, with zero political capital left..It would be an understatement to say that they have any goodwill left with those who already oppose the lockdown right now. Renewing it will almost certainly trigger a tidal wave of backlash at a time when they can least afford it. It is hard to imagine a scenario that doesn’t result in mass non-compliance, rendering the lockdown useless..If Kenney decides that he simply doesn’t have the political capital to extend the lockdown under these circumstances, he will be speared from the NDP and media for letting his scandal get in the way of what they believe to be an essential public health measure..It is a lose-lose either way..If 2020 was the worst year on record for most Albertans, 2021 looks to be even worse for the UCP..Derek Fildebrandt is the Publisher of the Western Standard.dfildebrandt@westernstandardonline.com
There is blood on the floor of the Alberta Legislature as Premier Jason Kenney hoisted the severed political heads of his former Minister of Municipal Affairs Tracey Allard and Chief of Staff Jamie Huckabay and placed them gracefully upon a pike. But six other UCP snowbird MLAs and several senior staffers remain mostly unpunished and sitting comfortably in the UCP caucus benches..The punditocracy are divided as to whether this will be enough to satisfy Albertans’ political blood lust or not, but the big question remains: was Jason Kenney telling the truth when he said he knew nothing about his sun-bound ministers, MLAs, and staff during his lockdown, or not? .We are getting closer to the hard truth as we keep digging. While Kenney says that he was only made aware of Allard’s travels on December 29, we have obtained a memo showing that 13 days earlier, he was informed that she would be away. The memo doesn’t show where she was headed, however Kenney is on the record as saying that he had virtual cabinet committee meetings with her while she was avoiding the Kenney government’s own lockdown and non-essential travel restrictions. .After we published the story, the premier’s spokesman claimed that Kenney never saw the memo. Believe it if you like..The government is asking us to believe that avowed workaholic Premier Jason Kenney did not read a memo from the Minister that chairs Alberta’s COVID-19 emergency response committee..Read that last sentence back to yourself out loud..One key Kenney insider doesn’t believe any of it. Speaking on condition of anonymity, a former Tory minister and Kenney ally told the Western Standard’s Dave Naylor that it was “inconceivable” that Kenney did not know where one of his ministers – and especially his chief of staff – was..“It is inconceivable [Kenney] wouldn’t know Allard was travelling,” the source said..For the record, this source is not Thomas Lukaszuk, a well-known Kenney critic. It is an ally close and generally supportive of the premier..In my own experience in politics, a politician who has a chief of staff speaks to them at least once a day, often even on weekends. And they always know where they are. It beggars belief that a seasoned, control-freak senior politician would have no idea that his chief of staff was vacationing overseas for weeks..Believe it if you like..Kenney may have presented the political corpse of Allard and his chief of staff, but the other six MLAs and numerous senior staffers have made it through relatively unscathed. The pundits will sift through the entrails of the sacrifice. What will they find?.My modest prediction is the the hardest-core of the hardcore Tory partisans will say that this is enough. They got a head. It bleed. It rolled down the pyramid. The gods are appeased..But the wider political consequences could be much more damaging. Alberta Institute President Peter McCaffrey put is succinctly in Twitter’s narrow contains:.“I don’t think the UCP realize how bad this is yet. ~35% of AB (mostly WRP) already think the restrictions go too far. ~35% (mostly NDP) think they hadn’t taken away enough freedoms. ~30% (mostly PC) were grudgingly accepting them as the best of all bad options.”.McCaffrey summed up Alberta’s political tribes roughly, but more-a-less accurately..The collectivist tribe (led by the NDP) can rightfully (in their view) claim that the UCP has undermined the lockdown through their actions..Similarly, the Wildrose tribe (for now, officially a part of the UCP flag) can claim that the authoritarian lockdown and restrictions went too far, and aren’t even upheld by the politicians responsible for imposing them. How could the government not respecting their own lockdown possibly justify continuing it?.The third tribe of Alberta – the Progressive Conservatives – have gone along with their government, grudgingly. It’s all a mess, and it’s best to trust the man in charge..But the Great Snowbird Scandal of 2021 has shaken even that faith. Many centrists willing to tow the government line have now lost faith in that government. Expect some who support the lockdowns to continue doing so, but believe that the UCP no longer has the moral authority to be the ones imposing it; while other centrists are likely to move into the anti-lockdown camp..This all serves to leave Kenney with an increasingly narrow base of loyal supporters..This is the problem with a government implementing policies that many of them never really believed in to begin with. I’ve given Kenney his due in this space previously for at least being more hesitant than others to impose lockdowns, but ultimately caving to pressure from the media and NDP..Many UCP MLAs will quietly say behind closed doors they don’t believe that a second lockdown was the right answer, but are too afraid to take a stand against their own government publicly. Without belief in the lockdown – or the courage to fight it – they simply didn’t see much wrong with hopping on a jet they tell others not to..As bad as it is right now, it may all be about to get worse. The UCP cabinet will be faced in just a few days with the renewal of the lockdown as the cabinet order of December expires..Kenney and his cabinet will be forced to make a very public decision on the most volatile policy issue of our time, with zero political capital left..It would be an understatement to say that they have any goodwill left with those who already oppose the lockdown right now. Renewing it will almost certainly trigger a tidal wave of backlash at a time when they can least afford it. It is hard to imagine a scenario that doesn’t result in mass non-compliance, rendering the lockdown useless..If Kenney decides that he simply doesn’t have the political capital to extend the lockdown under these circumstances, he will be speared from the NDP and media for letting his scandal get in the way of what they believe to be an essential public health measure..It is a lose-lose either way..If 2020 was the worst year on record for most Albertans, 2021 looks to be even worse for the UCP..Derek Fildebrandt is the Publisher of the Western Standard.dfildebrandt@westernstandardonline.com
