Albertans pay too much for electrical power. And the reason is quite simple: Too little supply and too much demand. That is, if you rely on wind and solar without assuring adequate baseload generation — coal or natural gas — you will end up buying in power, paying a fortune for it which then gets passed along to the poor old customer as higher rates.. Eocor pricesEpcor prices have surged and become increasingly erratic since the NDP decided to phase put coal-fired electrical generation. .How much higher?.According to EPCOR, power costs have increased from $0.027 per kWh in August 2017 to $0.31 per kWh in August 2022. This would be like paying $0.2/litre for gas in 2017 and then just 4 years later, paying $2.29/litre..Which means of course that the problems of runaway energy inflation that we have seen in Europe this summer, have their concerning parallels here in Alberta..But here’s the nub of the problem. Alberta’s wind and solar power production have led growth in new development here, with natural gas plants forced into subservient dual roles of providing base load and compensating for the power instabilities created by the former..While most are aware of the factors leading to the disruption of access to natural gas across Europe in 2022, it seems that few are aware that a similar, though less disruptive series of events has occurred here this summer, when prices also surged..So how did we get here?.In 2015, the NDP government imposed legislation to eliminate coal power and forced the province to transition to natural gas for base-load power. Premier Rachel Notley’s vision was to have 30% of Alberta’s electricity derived from solar and wind, and to have natural gas bridge the many gaps left from when the wind stopped blowing and the sun stopped shining. Since 2019, almost $14 billion in new wind and solar power capacity has been added to the grid..So how did Rachel Notley’s grand vision fail?.First, TC Energy’s pipeline expansion work on the NOVA Gas Transmission system from Grande Prairie to Calgary caused prolonged natural gas supply disruptions that started in July and lasted until early September. This not only limited baseload power production throughout the province, but also reduced the ability of natural gas-fed plants to compensate for wind and solar intermittencies..The second blow to the electricity markets arose during July through October, when these natural gas supply disruptions coincided with seasonal wind-speed minimums. This happens every year. For example, on 1st October this year, wind power output dropped bottomed out at one percent of the 2,764 MW nameplate capacity of all wind facilities throughout the province..Supply was low, demand was high. Prices exploded..Is there any hope? If TC Energy construction stops interfering with natural gas supply, we can expect electricity prices to decrease as seasonal wind speeds approach their seasonal maximum this winter..According to the Alberta Electric System Operator website there is 1,700MW more wind power capacity than solar. Had there not been this imbalance between wind and solar infrastructure this summer, solar power may have been able to offset the almost non-existent wind flow pattern across the province..Therefore strict requirements are needed to ensure solar and wind developers better modulate the power they produce. Albertan voters need to remember wind and solar facilities sell both electricity and CO2 emission-offset credits to natural gas power plants that back them up, and allow them to function. If they cannot compete by producing stable electricity on their own merit, then they are the wrong technology for the energy transition..Likewise, 2022 has shown us all that the Achilles Heel of large scale adoption of wind and solar is disruptions in natural gas supply..Then there’s this: When British Columbia liquefied natural gas exports start in 2025, how will natural gas producers be able increase production to increase supply if Trudeau caps oil & gas CO2 emissions?.If we are not careful here, high power prices will be the new norm in Alberta.
Albertans pay too much for electrical power. And the reason is quite simple: Too little supply and too much demand. That is, if you rely on wind and solar without assuring adequate baseload generation — coal or natural gas — you will end up buying in power, paying a fortune for it which then gets passed along to the poor old customer as higher rates.. Eocor pricesEpcor prices have surged and become increasingly erratic since the NDP decided to phase put coal-fired electrical generation. .How much higher?.According to EPCOR, power costs have increased from $0.027 per kWh in August 2017 to $0.31 per kWh in August 2022. This would be like paying $0.2/litre for gas in 2017 and then just 4 years later, paying $2.29/litre..Which means of course that the problems of runaway energy inflation that we have seen in Europe this summer, have their concerning parallels here in Alberta..But here’s the nub of the problem. Alberta’s wind and solar power production have led growth in new development here, with natural gas plants forced into subservient dual roles of providing base load and compensating for the power instabilities created by the former..While most are aware of the factors leading to the disruption of access to natural gas across Europe in 2022, it seems that few are aware that a similar, though less disruptive series of events has occurred here this summer, when prices also surged..So how did we get here?.In 2015, the NDP government imposed legislation to eliminate coal power and forced the province to transition to natural gas for base-load power. Premier Rachel Notley’s vision was to have 30% of Alberta’s electricity derived from solar and wind, and to have natural gas bridge the many gaps left from when the wind stopped blowing and the sun stopped shining. Since 2019, almost $14 billion in new wind and solar power capacity has been added to the grid..So how did Rachel Notley’s grand vision fail?.First, TC Energy’s pipeline expansion work on the NOVA Gas Transmission system from Grande Prairie to Calgary caused prolonged natural gas supply disruptions that started in July and lasted until early September. This not only limited baseload power production throughout the province, but also reduced the ability of natural gas-fed plants to compensate for wind and solar intermittencies..The second blow to the electricity markets arose during July through October, when these natural gas supply disruptions coincided with seasonal wind-speed minimums. This happens every year. For example, on 1st October this year, wind power output dropped bottomed out at one percent of the 2,764 MW nameplate capacity of all wind facilities throughout the province..Supply was low, demand was high. Prices exploded..Is there any hope? If TC Energy construction stops interfering with natural gas supply, we can expect electricity prices to decrease as seasonal wind speeds approach their seasonal maximum this winter..According to the Alberta Electric System Operator website there is 1,700MW more wind power capacity than solar. Had there not been this imbalance between wind and solar infrastructure this summer, solar power may have been able to offset the almost non-existent wind flow pattern across the province..Therefore strict requirements are needed to ensure solar and wind developers better modulate the power they produce. Albertan voters need to remember wind and solar facilities sell both electricity and CO2 emission-offset credits to natural gas power plants that back them up, and allow them to function. If they cannot compete by producing stable electricity on their own merit, then they are the wrong technology for the energy transition..Likewise, 2022 has shown us all that the Achilles Heel of large scale adoption of wind and solar is disruptions in natural gas supply..Then there’s this: When British Columbia liquefied natural gas exports start in 2025, how will natural gas producers be able increase production to increase supply if Trudeau caps oil & gas CO2 emissions?.If we are not careful here, high power prices will be the new norm in Alberta.
