Since mid-March when draconian shutdown measures were implemented, we have been daily warned of how “expert” modelling has projected a massive pandemic catastrophe within weeks. We were warned that even with the most strict of quarantine controls imposed upon the public, our hospital beds were sure to be overwhelmed, not to mention our mortuaries..Anybody questioning authoritarian government measures was shouted down as being a heartless monster who wants to kill grandma for the almighty dollar, and the models were referenced as to why..For over a month now, doomsayers have been telling us that we were but a week or two from becoming just like Italy. Week after week we have been right to the brink of becoming just like Italy. How could we not? Expert modeling has told us so..The weeks have passed, the numbers are in and the “expert” modelling has proven to be terrifically inaccurate..Three weeks ago Albertans were told by Dr. Christopher Mody, the head of immunology and infectious diseases at the University of Calgary’s Cumming School of Medicine, that with cases in the province doubling every five days, Alberta is on pace to have roughly 27,000 confirmed COVID-19 infections by the end of this month. Of those, he says about 4,100 are expected to require hospital — and 1,400 will need the ICU..Right now we have 2,908 confirmed cases, with 60 in hospital, and 16 in ICU..Expert modelling in Alberta didn’t just miss the target, it blew it by a country mile. It could be viewed as a glass have full, or empty..These projections were taking into account our current social-distancing measures. These were not worst-case scenario numbers..Ontario’s modeling was no different. Just weeks ago, “experts” projected ICU cases under the “best case” scenario at being over 1,200 by today. Right now they are at 247..How much longer will we keep making policy on such clearly flawed models? How long will we act as if the projections from March will be coming to pass?.The main justification for the shutdown was the claim that our medical facilities would be overwhelmed. Grim pictures were painted of people dying in hallways while health care professionals dropped from exhaustion. That isn’t going to happen..We have scrambled, emptied hospital beds, bought new equipment and put every possible health care professional on duty. With hospitals now fully staffed but well under capacity around the province, I can see health workers perfecting their crib game skills as opposed to working themselves to death. This is a good thing of course, but it’s clearly time to start changing our approach..It’s not just time to talk about opening parts of the economy; it is time to do it..No, I am not talking about a free for all with street festivals getting rolling again and opening up care centers to visitors with the sniffles. We need to act incrementally and with care. We do need to stay on guard in case of an unexpected large outbreak, but we need to start making policy based on the real numbers we have today rather than the flawed numbers of last month..Still worried about grandma? How many grandmas are in agony waiting for hip or knee replacement surgery right now while hospitals are under capacity? Will the suffering make her life span any longer or more comfortable? How many other people who had been waiting for elective medical procedures have now become acute in need? There is a health cost to putting off these procedures and diagnostics and it will surely kill people just as dead as COVID-19 does over time..While it is tougher to measure the hard numbers, it is unquestionable that poverty kills and we are putting millions of Canadians into poverty with the pandemic shutdown. Domestic and substance abuse blossoms as poverty and suicides rise. People don’t get any healthier while locked within their homes and under the stress of poverty and some will doubtlessly die from it..We need to do some serious cost/benefit analysis on the pandemic policies and we need to act fast. The costs of the shutdown are becoming catastrophic and in light of the broken projections of the modeling it appears that the benefit is much more limited than imagined..Italy, Spain and New York city are proving to be the outliers in this pandemic. We need to start treating them as such rather than the baseline..We listened to the models. We acted. We sacrificed. We are all paying the price. Now its time to start acting on what is rather than what may be as it is clear that “expert” modeling is little more predictive of events than a magic 8 ball..Cory Morgan is a columnist for the Western Standard
Since mid-March when draconian shutdown measures were implemented, we have been daily warned of how “expert” modelling has projected a massive pandemic catastrophe within weeks. We were warned that even with the most strict of quarantine controls imposed upon the public, our hospital beds were sure to be overwhelmed, not to mention our mortuaries..Anybody questioning authoritarian government measures was shouted down as being a heartless monster who wants to kill grandma for the almighty dollar, and the models were referenced as to why..For over a month now, doomsayers have been telling us that we were but a week or two from becoming just like Italy. Week after week we have been right to the brink of becoming just like Italy. How could we not? Expert modeling has told us so..The weeks have passed, the numbers are in and the “expert” modelling has proven to be terrifically inaccurate..Three weeks ago Albertans were told by Dr. Christopher Mody, the head of immunology and infectious diseases at the University of Calgary’s Cumming School of Medicine, that with cases in the province doubling every five days, Alberta is on pace to have roughly 27,000 confirmed COVID-19 infections by the end of this month. Of those, he says about 4,100 are expected to require hospital — and 1,400 will need the ICU..Right now we have 2,908 confirmed cases, with 60 in hospital, and 16 in ICU..Expert modelling in Alberta didn’t just miss the target, it blew it by a country mile. It could be viewed as a glass have full, or empty..These projections were taking into account our current social-distancing measures. These were not worst-case scenario numbers..Ontario’s modeling was no different. Just weeks ago, “experts” projected ICU cases under the “best case” scenario at being over 1,200 by today. Right now they are at 247..How much longer will we keep making policy on such clearly flawed models? How long will we act as if the projections from March will be coming to pass?.The main justification for the shutdown was the claim that our medical facilities would be overwhelmed. Grim pictures were painted of people dying in hallways while health care professionals dropped from exhaustion. That isn’t going to happen..We have scrambled, emptied hospital beds, bought new equipment and put every possible health care professional on duty. With hospitals now fully staffed but well under capacity around the province, I can see health workers perfecting their crib game skills as opposed to working themselves to death. This is a good thing of course, but it’s clearly time to start changing our approach..It’s not just time to talk about opening parts of the economy; it is time to do it..No, I am not talking about a free for all with street festivals getting rolling again and opening up care centers to visitors with the sniffles. We need to act incrementally and with care. We do need to stay on guard in case of an unexpected large outbreak, but we need to start making policy based on the real numbers we have today rather than the flawed numbers of last month..Still worried about grandma? How many grandmas are in agony waiting for hip or knee replacement surgery right now while hospitals are under capacity? Will the suffering make her life span any longer or more comfortable? How many other people who had been waiting for elective medical procedures have now become acute in need? There is a health cost to putting off these procedures and diagnostics and it will surely kill people just as dead as COVID-19 does over time..While it is tougher to measure the hard numbers, it is unquestionable that poverty kills and we are putting millions of Canadians into poverty with the pandemic shutdown. Domestic and substance abuse blossoms as poverty and suicides rise. People don’t get any healthier while locked within their homes and under the stress of poverty and some will doubtlessly die from it..We need to do some serious cost/benefit analysis on the pandemic policies and we need to act fast. The costs of the shutdown are becoming catastrophic and in light of the broken projections of the modeling it appears that the benefit is much more limited than imagined..Italy, Spain and New York city are proving to be the outliers in this pandemic. We need to start treating them as such rather than the baseline..We listened to the models. We acted. We sacrificed. We are all paying the price. Now its time to start acting on what is rather than what may be as it is clear that “expert” modeling is little more predictive of events than a magic 8 ball..Cory Morgan is a columnist for the Western Standard
