I didn’t believe it when I first saw it. I had to click the link a few times to be sure, and even then, wondered if the federal government’s website had been hacked..The COVID-19 projection modelling chart from Dr. Teresa Tam and Health Canada and it is almost criminally poor in its quality..With a budget in the billions and with thousands of medical “experts” on the job, Health Canada has issued a COVID-19 projection model that looks like it was drawn by a child with a crayon..According to Tam, if we lift any health restrictions at all, cases will spike immeasurably by the beginning of March. I say ‘immeasurably’ because the orange line representing this projection spikes right off the top of the chart, so as far we know it could be in the hundreds of thousands of cases per day..The next line represents what will happen if we keep the current restrictions in place, which appears only a little less dire. While we may be spared for a couple more weeks, it looks like we will see infections into the hundreds of thousands even if we stay the course..The cute little blue line shows cases dropping almost immediately if we would embrace “enhanced” public health measures. What sort of “enhanced” measures would it take to change the trajectory from hundreds of thousands of new cases in a couple weeks down to cases which would be measured in the hundreds? Warrantless home arrests? Expensive curfews? Throwing more church pastors in jail? Tasering more hockey players?.Government health bureaucrats so far have refused to answer questions on how they came up with this projection model which has now been coined as “Tam’s Rocket Ship” model..Tam couldn’t answer the most simple – and easily anticipated – questions. Questions like: how do vaccinations impact infections? And, what is the data based on?.The modelling is a joke. This is baseless, irresponsible, fear mongering pap which should lead to firings at the top levels of Health Canada. The “experts” who created this drivel should be shown the door along with every official that signed off on it..Canadian COVID-19 pandemic modelling has been garbage since last spring when we saw Alberta falsely or incorrectly projecting as many as 30,000 deaths within months. In the graph below, it can seen how badly the projections for hospitalizations were in Alberta. Thousands of businesses were crushed due to the lockdowns which were based on that flawed modelling.. covida .One would think that with such an ongoing record of being dead wrong, the people creating these projections would start becoming a little more modest in their predictions of doom. Instead, they seem to have upped the ante to levels of absurdity previously unimaginable..Clearly, nothing was learned from the terrible pandemic modelling in Alberta as Health Canada and Dr. Theresa Tam projected dire numbers in a press conference in November. Dr. Tam said that modelling was projecting 20,000 to 60,000 infections per day by the end of December in Canada. At our very peak, we hit 11,000 infections in one day and that sharply dropped..I wish we could simply laugh off and dismiss this incompetent modeling but we can’t. Governments are using these models to justify infringements on basic liberties, and people who actually believe these projections are frightened witless. Who wouldn’t be terrified when their most trusted medical experts are telling them that such an infection catastrophe is but weeks away..The costs are too high to keep letting these inept, doomsayers influence public policy with these models. In any private sector role, a person creating a projection graph like the one pictured above would be fired. If a student submitted a graph like that in an engineering course, they would be given a failing grade. Our health bureaucrats need to be held to that sort of standard sooner rather than later..How many more times will government health officials be wrong in their projections and recommendations?.More importantly, how many more times will we allow them to be wrong?.Cory Morgan is the Podcast Editor and a columnist for the Western Standard
I didn’t believe it when I first saw it. I had to click the link a few times to be sure, and even then, wondered if the federal government’s website had been hacked..The COVID-19 projection modelling chart from Dr. Teresa Tam and Health Canada and it is almost criminally poor in its quality..With a budget in the billions and with thousands of medical “experts” on the job, Health Canada has issued a COVID-19 projection model that looks like it was drawn by a child with a crayon..According to Tam, if we lift any health restrictions at all, cases will spike immeasurably by the beginning of March. I say ‘immeasurably’ because the orange line representing this projection spikes right off the top of the chart, so as far we know it could be in the hundreds of thousands of cases per day..The next line represents what will happen if we keep the current restrictions in place, which appears only a little less dire. While we may be spared for a couple more weeks, it looks like we will see infections into the hundreds of thousands even if we stay the course..The cute little blue line shows cases dropping almost immediately if we would embrace “enhanced” public health measures. What sort of “enhanced” measures would it take to change the trajectory from hundreds of thousands of new cases in a couple weeks down to cases which would be measured in the hundreds? Warrantless home arrests? Expensive curfews? Throwing more church pastors in jail? Tasering more hockey players?.Government health bureaucrats so far have refused to answer questions on how they came up with this projection model which has now been coined as “Tam’s Rocket Ship” model..Tam couldn’t answer the most simple – and easily anticipated – questions. Questions like: how do vaccinations impact infections? And, what is the data based on?.The modelling is a joke. This is baseless, irresponsible, fear mongering pap which should lead to firings at the top levels of Health Canada. The “experts” who created this drivel should be shown the door along with every official that signed off on it..Canadian COVID-19 pandemic modelling has been garbage since last spring when we saw Alberta falsely or incorrectly projecting as many as 30,000 deaths within months. In the graph below, it can seen how badly the projections for hospitalizations were in Alberta. Thousands of businesses were crushed due to the lockdowns which were based on that flawed modelling.. covida .One would think that with such an ongoing record of being dead wrong, the people creating these projections would start becoming a little more modest in their predictions of doom. Instead, they seem to have upped the ante to levels of absurdity previously unimaginable..Clearly, nothing was learned from the terrible pandemic modelling in Alberta as Health Canada and Dr. Theresa Tam projected dire numbers in a press conference in November. Dr. Tam said that modelling was projecting 20,000 to 60,000 infections per day by the end of December in Canada. At our very peak, we hit 11,000 infections in one day and that sharply dropped..I wish we could simply laugh off and dismiss this incompetent modeling but we can’t. Governments are using these models to justify infringements on basic liberties, and people who actually believe these projections are frightened witless. Who wouldn’t be terrified when their most trusted medical experts are telling them that such an infection catastrophe is but weeks away..The costs are too high to keep letting these inept, doomsayers influence public policy with these models. In any private sector role, a person creating a projection graph like the one pictured above would be fired. If a student submitted a graph like that in an engineering course, they would be given a failing grade. Our health bureaucrats need to be held to that sort of standard sooner rather than later..How many more times will government health officials be wrong in their projections and recommendations?.More importantly, how many more times will we allow them to be wrong?.Cory Morgan is the Podcast Editor and a columnist for the Western Standard
