In Canada’s 1980 federal election, Liberal strategist Keith Davey coined the phrase “Screw the West, we’ll take the rest!”It was a blunt way of stating the most effective political strategy in Canada. Drain resources from Western Canada while pandering to the East. The tactic worked like a charm in 1980 and Pierre Trudeau won a majority government. Chretien stuck to the plan in the 1990s with great success. Justin Trudeau has taken the first part of Davey’s advice to heart. He never hesitates to screw the West at every opportunity. He is having a hard time taking the rest however as his polling numbers continue their freefall into record-low territory for the Liberal Party of Canada. While the strategy of regional division in federal politics is typically pretty sound, it still requires a party leader with a marginal degree of competence.Trudeau’s latest move has been his most crass. He has suspended the carbon tax applied to people heating their homes with heating oil. This is almost clever on his part as while it isn’t overtly a regional political play, it is very regional in practice. The only part of Canada where heating oil is in common use is in the Atlantic provinces. Media, politicians and the public caught on to the tactic immediately.The gross unfairness of the policy was too much to swallow for provincial leaders.Saskatchewan’s Premier Scott Moe is claiming he will outright break the law and refuse to allow the crown corportation SaskPower to collect carbon taxes on behalf of the federal government.Alberta’s Premier Smith is of course threatening further use of the Sovereignty Act. BC’s NDP Premier Eby is calling for breaks for his province. Ontario’s Premier Ford is calling for the scrapping of the carbon tax altogether.Quebec already had special status so they are remaining quiet as they watch cracks in national unity widening into fissures under Trudeau’s leadership.After years of claiming the carbon tax doesn’t impact the cost of living for Canadians, Trudeau just admitted the tax is causing hardship for people trying to heat their homes in Atlantic Canada. People heating with natural gas will continue to suffer under the carbon tax, however. That is predominantly the West of course.Rural Economic Development Minister Gudie Hutchings told CTV “I can tell you (that the Liberal) Atlantic caucus was vocal with what they’ve heard from their constituents and perhaps they need to elect more Liberals in the Prairies so that we can have that conversation, as well.”In other words, “Vote Liberal or we will continue to unfairly target you with taxes.”Trudeau has always claimed the climate issue is so important, the carbon tax must remain if we are to save the world. If it really has that much benefit for the environment, how could he possibly reverse such an important tax?The tax survived court challenges due to its apparent world-saving nature. How can it be selectively applied now? Unchecked inflation has dogged the Liberal government and now the head of the Bank of Canada just admitted the carbon tax alone is responsible for 16% of inflation. Whatever little credibility Trudeau may have had on the carbon tax issue is now in tatters. The sharks within the Liberal Party are finally starting to circle. Heir-apparent Mark Carney came out to speak on how he respects Trudeau’s work on the climate, but he would do things differently on the carbon tax. It’s subtle, but his words are starting to take on the tone of a leadership contender.Others will come out of the woodwork as an unofficial leadership campaign begins to develop.Will Trudeau get it though? Can he get it? Does he really think if he pounds on the West hard enough, his political fortunes will change? Ignoring the spirit of the Supreme Court ruling that found most of his 'No more pipelines bill' to be unconstitutional didn’t win him new support in the East. It infuriated the West further and made him appear inept in policy development.If and when Trudeau reads the writing on the wall, what will he do on the way out the door? He desperately wants to have a legacy as a climate crusader and he has always seen Western Canadian industries as his biggest enemy on that front.Will he make one more effort to crush the West out of spite or misguided idealism? I wouldn’t put it beyond him. Trudeau has already proven his pet climate project is more important than national unity. The fractures he has created within the country could lead to a full shattering of the nation.Trudeau's legacy could be his invocation of the beginning of the end of confederation.
In Canada’s 1980 federal election, Liberal strategist Keith Davey coined the phrase “Screw the West, we’ll take the rest!”It was a blunt way of stating the most effective political strategy in Canada. Drain resources from Western Canada while pandering to the East. The tactic worked like a charm in 1980 and Pierre Trudeau won a majority government. Chretien stuck to the plan in the 1990s with great success. Justin Trudeau has taken the first part of Davey’s advice to heart. He never hesitates to screw the West at every opportunity. He is having a hard time taking the rest however as his polling numbers continue their freefall into record-low territory for the Liberal Party of Canada. While the strategy of regional division in federal politics is typically pretty sound, it still requires a party leader with a marginal degree of competence.Trudeau’s latest move has been his most crass. He has suspended the carbon tax applied to people heating their homes with heating oil. This is almost clever on his part as while it isn’t overtly a regional political play, it is very regional in practice. The only part of Canada where heating oil is in common use is in the Atlantic provinces. Media, politicians and the public caught on to the tactic immediately.The gross unfairness of the policy was too much to swallow for provincial leaders.Saskatchewan’s Premier Scott Moe is claiming he will outright break the law and refuse to allow the crown corportation SaskPower to collect carbon taxes on behalf of the federal government.Alberta’s Premier Smith is of course threatening further use of the Sovereignty Act. BC’s NDP Premier Eby is calling for breaks for his province. Ontario’s Premier Ford is calling for the scrapping of the carbon tax altogether.Quebec already had special status so they are remaining quiet as they watch cracks in national unity widening into fissures under Trudeau’s leadership.After years of claiming the carbon tax doesn’t impact the cost of living for Canadians, Trudeau just admitted the tax is causing hardship for people trying to heat their homes in Atlantic Canada. People heating with natural gas will continue to suffer under the carbon tax, however. That is predominantly the West of course.Rural Economic Development Minister Gudie Hutchings told CTV “I can tell you (that the Liberal) Atlantic caucus was vocal with what they’ve heard from their constituents and perhaps they need to elect more Liberals in the Prairies so that we can have that conversation, as well.”In other words, “Vote Liberal or we will continue to unfairly target you with taxes.”Trudeau has always claimed the climate issue is so important, the carbon tax must remain if we are to save the world. If it really has that much benefit for the environment, how could he possibly reverse such an important tax?The tax survived court challenges due to its apparent world-saving nature. How can it be selectively applied now? Unchecked inflation has dogged the Liberal government and now the head of the Bank of Canada just admitted the carbon tax alone is responsible for 16% of inflation. Whatever little credibility Trudeau may have had on the carbon tax issue is now in tatters. The sharks within the Liberal Party are finally starting to circle. Heir-apparent Mark Carney came out to speak on how he respects Trudeau’s work on the climate, but he would do things differently on the carbon tax. It’s subtle, but his words are starting to take on the tone of a leadership contender.Others will come out of the woodwork as an unofficial leadership campaign begins to develop.Will Trudeau get it though? Can he get it? Does he really think if he pounds on the West hard enough, his political fortunes will change? Ignoring the spirit of the Supreme Court ruling that found most of his 'No more pipelines bill' to be unconstitutional didn’t win him new support in the East. It infuriated the West further and made him appear inept in policy development.If and when Trudeau reads the writing on the wall, what will he do on the way out the door? He desperately wants to have a legacy as a climate crusader and he has always seen Western Canadian industries as his biggest enemy on that front.Will he make one more effort to crush the West out of spite or misguided idealism? I wouldn’t put it beyond him. Trudeau has already proven his pet climate project is more important than national unity. The fractures he has created within the country could lead to a full shattering of the nation.Trudeau's legacy could be his invocation of the beginning of the end of confederation.