If it’s not too early, and I don’t think it is, I’d like to go on the record with my official prediction for the outcome of our next federal election, which will take place on or before October 20, 2025. You might be thinking, “A lot can happen between now and then!”Sure, I suppose. But at this point, nothing short of a war on our own soil is going to alter that primary outcome. Even then, it would only delay the inevitable.I say this confidently because of a report published by Angus Reid a few weeks ago. Reid's poll found that Canadians who intend to vote for the Liberal party are more inclined to do so in order to stop Conservatives from winning, than because they support their own party’s platform, vision and leader.Ouch.In my opinion, this is the strongest indicator that the Liberals and Justin Trudeau are going to lose the next election.Here's why. The Liberal government and Justin Trudeau are going to lose the 45th Canadian federal election because they're doing what the Conservatives did before them. That is, the Liberals have seemingly forgotten, or pompously ignored, the lessons which brought them to power in 2015. And, Justin Trudeau has come to epitomize all that he saw wrong in Stephen Harper. Authoritarian, aloof, detached from the reality of everyday Canadians and incredibly secretive.Indeed, to some degree Trudeau’s political career parallels the story of Harvey Dent from the Batman movie, The Dark Knight.Dent, an idealistic District Attorney, spirals into madness after a criminal throws acid on his face leaving half of it terribly disfigured. Disenfranchised, he develops the persona of ‘Two-Face,’ a treacherous villain that becomes public enemy number one and Batman’s nemesis.While Trudeau may be two-faced, he’s no comic book villain and thankfully he hasn’t been assaulted in such a manner. But a quote from Harvey Dent in The Dark Knight applies perfectly to him. “You either die a hero, or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain.” Such is the reality for Justin Trudeau these days.The old ‘sunny ways’ of an idealistic party are long gone. Their increasingly frequent and ludicrously expensive cabinet retreats are a tell-tale sign of an organization out of ideas. Not only that, but nearly a year of successive polls show Trudeau and his government have exhausted the patience of the electorate. Once legitimately interested in their promises of ‘real change’, they have yet to see it and feel spurned.So, all this government and this prime minister have left to offer is obfuscation, cynicism and fear mongering, while it desperately tries to retain its grip on power.But that isn’t going to be enough to win them an election.Despite a new comms team, their attack ads are sad, half-hearted affairs that are missing the mark. In addition when they do get in front of Canadians, the messaging is incoherent and inconsistent.The Angus Reid Institute predicts that 36% of NDP supporters will decide to vote Liberal in an attempt to strategically block a CPC victory. But even if they did, it won’t be enough to win Trudeau an election.If the Liberals were wise, they’d jettison Justin Trudeau promptly and find someone who can match the hope, vision and moral clarity that Pierre Poilievre is offering Canadians. If they act fast, they still might be able to form His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition — maybe.But they’re still going to lose the election, because Canadians are once again craving change and the Conservatives are the only party offering it.
If it’s not too early, and I don’t think it is, I’d like to go on the record with my official prediction for the outcome of our next federal election, which will take place on or before October 20, 2025. You might be thinking, “A lot can happen between now and then!”Sure, I suppose. But at this point, nothing short of a war on our own soil is going to alter that primary outcome. Even then, it would only delay the inevitable.I say this confidently because of a report published by Angus Reid a few weeks ago. Reid's poll found that Canadians who intend to vote for the Liberal party are more inclined to do so in order to stop Conservatives from winning, than because they support their own party’s platform, vision and leader.Ouch.In my opinion, this is the strongest indicator that the Liberals and Justin Trudeau are going to lose the next election.Here's why. The Liberal government and Justin Trudeau are going to lose the 45th Canadian federal election because they're doing what the Conservatives did before them. That is, the Liberals have seemingly forgotten, or pompously ignored, the lessons which brought them to power in 2015. And, Justin Trudeau has come to epitomize all that he saw wrong in Stephen Harper. Authoritarian, aloof, detached from the reality of everyday Canadians and incredibly secretive.Indeed, to some degree Trudeau’s political career parallels the story of Harvey Dent from the Batman movie, The Dark Knight.Dent, an idealistic District Attorney, spirals into madness after a criminal throws acid on his face leaving half of it terribly disfigured. Disenfranchised, he develops the persona of ‘Two-Face,’ a treacherous villain that becomes public enemy number one and Batman’s nemesis.While Trudeau may be two-faced, he’s no comic book villain and thankfully he hasn’t been assaulted in such a manner. But a quote from Harvey Dent in The Dark Knight applies perfectly to him. “You either die a hero, or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain.” Such is the reality for Justin Trudeau these days.The old ‘sunny ways’ of an idealistic party are long gone. Their increasingly frequent and ludicrously expensive cabinet retreats are a tell-tale sign of an organization out of ideas. Not only that, but nearly a year of successive polls show Trudeau and his government have exhausted the patience of the electorate. Once legitimately interested in their promises of ‘real change’, they have yet to see it and feel spurned.So, all this government and this prime minister have left to offer is obfuscation, cynicism and fear mongering, while it desperately tries to retain its grip on power.But that isn’t going to be enough to win them an election.Despite a new comms team, their attack ads are sad, half-hearted affairs that are missing the mark. In addition when they do get in front of Canadians, the messaging is incoherent and inconsistent.The Angus Reid Institute predicts that 36% of NDP supporters will decide to vote Liberal in an attempt to strategically block a CPC victory. But even if they did, it won’t be enough to win Trudeau an election.If the Liberals were wise, they’d jettison Justin Trudeau promptly and find someone who can match the hope, vision and moral clarity that Pierre Poilievre is offering Canadians. If they act fast, they still might be able to form His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition — maybe.But they’re still going to lose the election, because Canadians are once again craving change and the Conservatives are the only party offering it.
