In this, the first of a two-part examination of current and likely future wars in the Middle East, we consider Israel's current circumstances. Part II will examine the significant impact the conflict is having on geopolitics, far beyond Israel and Hamas. They both address whether long-term interests should prevail over emotion-driven immediacies.

The war in Gaza, the demands from allies for the consummation of difficult negotiations, the hostages and more, have coalesced into a delicate situation at a difficult time. Emotions are running high, the world is criticizing Israel regarding the war and negotiations, yet seemingly oblivious to the long-term consequences for all of us.

The prime minister of Israel is determined to rid Gaza of Hamas insurgents. This is the only sensible long-term solution for the security, safety and prosperity of Israel. Yet he is being pilloried and blamed for his administration’s inability to bring more hostages home alive.

Describing the circumstances as a conundrum understates the challenge for the prime minister and his government. The outcome of any negotiation is always subject to the demands of the counter-party but the unattainable demands of Israelis, President Biden, and others are counterproductive — indeed, in most cases mutually exclusive.

One of the themes of “The History of the Jews”, an amazing book by historian Paul Johnson about the roughly 4,000 years of Jewish existence, is the importance of family. Indeed, one of the foundations of the Judeo-Christian value system is the primacy of family.

The tension, hope, and ultimately grief of the execution of hostages by Hamas can only be fully felt by family and friends. Although we can understand and sympathize, none of us knows what our sentiments would be in a similar situation. Or the depth of the sadness, and understandable anger.

Much of the world, the United Nations, and many Israelis are increasingly critical of Israel and its government as it continues to sanitize Gaza of the Hamas terrorists. The several attempts in the last 11 months to negotiate a peace treaty, including hostage exchanges, have not yet been successful.

There is growing resistance from military weapon and ammunition providers, including the Biden Administration in the US, which has made several proposals for a ceasefire and exchange. But, it appears those parties do not understand their pressure gives Hamas leverage, and thereby makes an agreement harder to reach.

Certainly, Hamas understands public relations; somehow Israel, clearly the victim of unprecedented terrorist violence, has become the villain. Given the reaction internally and around the world blaming Israel for the execution of more hostages, it will not be a surprise if there is more of the same. Killing hostages advantages Hamas.

The world is upside down. Last April, a small group of couples attended a private presentation from a prominent former Israeli Ambassador to the US, Michael Oren. (I was fortunate to be able to attend.)

A notable historian and former politician with a military background, Oren was on a speaking tour of North America. He explained that Hamas will never agree to a ceasefire or to return hostages.

Once Israel has cleared the tunnels of hostages, it will blow up the extensive, elaborate, expensive and highly effective network throughout Gaza, a complex that was fundamental to the recent massacre.

The return of hostages depends on Israel bowing to the demands of an enemy that has killed, butchered and mutilated more than 1,200 Israelis (and some Jews from other countries, including the US.) And it vows to carry on with its mandate to extinguish every Israeli and Jew between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordanian and Lebanese borders.

That's what the Hamas Charter says.

That means Israel has no choice but to remove the terrorist group and its infrastructure. They exist only to wipe Israel and its citizens from the face of the earth. So for Israel, it is kill or be killed.

In war it is usually the transgressor which sets the rules. A significant component of the dilemma facing Israel is the asymmetrical value of human life. Hamas encourages martyrs and openly admits willingness to sacrifice Gazans for its cause; historically and even more now, Jews value human life.

On a fascinating trip to Israel more than a decade ago, our group watched a video of two presentable young girls, probably early or mid-teens. They explained to the interviewer their eagerness to become martyrs by blowing up Israelis, including themselves. Certain Muslim believers that such martyrdom ensures a glorious afterlife. (For men, part of the reward is a multitude of virgins — interesting for a religion which requires women to walk behind men, climb on a bus from the back door and cover their faces.)

We also visited an air force base and learned that those on duty sleep in their gear to be in the air first when fighter jets in Jordan or Egypt warm up on the runway. Is this paranoia; or is it a realistic understanding of demonstrated risks?

One of the most highly sought professions in Israel, for men and women, is that of a jet fighter pilot. Among the roughly 500 annual aspirants, only 50 ever fly an aircraft and very few make the grade. Like athletes in North America, they retire young and are welcomed into their next phase of life celebrated and respected.

An easy conclusion after this informative week — with the young people of one protagonist aspiring to become jet fighter pilots and the other to become martyrs — the likelihood of peace and harmony is a myth and pipe dream. Israel will always be threatened by Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, Yemen, and others.

Many allege the highly political prime minister is dragging out the negotiations to hang onto office. Maybe so, but this is an existential crisis, and internal politics will play out in due course. In this moment the leader must perform his duty to protect the long-term interests of his country and its citizens.

All this is now more difficult as Hamas has successfully reframed the massacre, claiming the high ground and now portrays Israel as the culpable party. Important, delicate and difficult as any decision could ever be, the short-term exigencies give way to the critical fight for the future of Israel. The easy way forward is not always optimal.

The outcome of the war in Gaza also impacts the broader challenge facing the Western world and the war, already underway between Iran, its proxies, and command and control political and economic structures on one hand, and democracy and free markets on the other.

That is the subject of Part II, to be published Saturday September 21st.

The Pipeline: Trying to find the truth in the Israel/Gaza conflict

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