"I think President Trump wants Mark Carney to win. He keeps interfering at the right time."
Thus economist Jack Mintz, tonight's guest on Hannaford. And maybe it's not a joke.
"He wants Canadian auto production in the US, and if that happens obviously that has huge ramifications, especially for all the economic assumptions that both parties have made. I'm afraid you can't trust the assumptions upon which either party is basing the financial plans that they're offering the voters. Things are not that good."
Trump aside, with Canada's federal election just days away, Conservatives and Liberals are promising many of the same things — but with very different ideas for getting them done.
Both Conservatives and Liberals call for personal income tax cuts, the end of the consumer carbon tax and the cancellation of proposed increases to the capital gains tax.
In an effort to make new homes more affordable, both the Conservatives and the Liberals say they will eliminate GST on the purchase of new homes up to a million dollars. (It's worth noting that most of these proposals come from the Conservative campaign and were adopted by the Liberals in the last month.)
However, speaking on tonight's episode of Hannaford, tonight's guest economist Jack Mintz, says there's a world of difference in the worldview that's driving those ideas. And that will very much affect how they are developed later.
"Their numbers are less important than their philosophies. In the case of the Liberals, Mr Carney has said himself that the way to grow the economy is by the government. He’s ready to set up whole bunch of funds to invest and work with the private sector to catalyse — as he keeps using that word — to catalyse private investment. In other words, the government picking winners and losers and subsidizing private investment through various grants and tax credits and looking like a Brookfield-type fund, that would be working with partners to make investments in infrastructure and other things. That of course is one philosophy."
"The other philosophy is to get government out of the way, deregulate, cut taxes, significant tax reform and other policies that would spur private investment. and that’s really what the Conservative plan is about.."
Both parties have also announced plans to run deficits, although the Liberal plan to add $225 billion to the federal debt over four years is considerably larger than the Conservative one, whose focus is on cutting costs.
In a wide-ranging discussion of the issues, Mintz also discusses the recent Privy Council Office report, that foresaw Canada becoming a third-world country by 2040. "There's been a lot of work done showing how Canada has become the lowest growth rate among the OECD countries."
"So maybe not third world. Maybe a middle income country... "
In any case, after ten years of Mr. Trudeau's administration, Canada now faces the possibility of another four years of Liberal central planning, command and control.
And does Dr. Mintz think that's at all likely? He offers his prediction for who wins the election, at the end of the show.
Hannaford airs tonight, at seven o'clock.
