It’s like a bad rerun that never ends.Alberta farmers are feeling like cannon fodder in the Liberal government’s escalating trade war with China to protect the heavily subsidized EV market in Ontario and Quebec while choosing to sacrifice Western Canadian canola growers.According to Alberta Wheat Growers’ vice-president Stephen Vandervalk it all adds up to some fairly simple electoral math. That’s because the ruling Liberals don’t have a single rural seat west of Thunder Bay.In an interview, Vandervalk said Ottawa knew exactly what it was doing and how China would respond when it made the decision to slap 100% tariffs on EVs.“This is, like, crazy. I mean, they know exactly what would happen every single time there is a trade issue with China — they go after agricultural products, right? Immediately. And so, for the Liberals, that's a good deal, right? Because they literally, literally represent zero rural ridings,” he said. “So they're protecting their (EV) industry at the expense of an industry that they care nothing about, well, and also regional, right? The auto industry is almost exclusively in Eastern Canada, and this agricultural is almost exclusively in Western Canada.”.At this point, China hasn’t yet imposed retaliatory tariffs — it’s only ‘investigating’ the issue — but it’s almost a foregone conclusion that it will.Although it’s difficult to quantify the economic damage, Vandervalk estimates retaliatory measures would easily wipe about 10% off farm receipts, mainly in Alberta and Saskatchewan.Canola futures plunged some $45 a tonne immediately following the Chinese announcement, on an expected 20 million tonne crop. Canola oil, meanwhile lost about 7% or $42 per tonne.The irony is that $50 billion EV subsidies have yet to produce a single Canadian-made car or even battery.About 94% of China’s canola imports come from Canada — and the prairies specifically — worth about $5 billion per year. By contrast, the only Chinese made EV available in Canada is a Tesla, which sold about 37,000 units in Canada last year..“Do the math,” he continued. “That's $900 million immediately. Someone could argue that there was other factors in that, but it’s one of the main factors, for sure. It could mean as much as $50 us a ton. So just call it 70 bucks. So yeah, billion and a half dollars, probably 10% of the market. The easiest numbers to say is it's going affect 10% of our price.”Vandervalk complained federal Agriculture Minister Lawrence MacAulay was likely not even consulted.On Tuesday, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe’s government fired off an angry letter to MacAulay and Economic Development Minister Mary Ng reminding them that canola is by far his province’s top export to China, worth about $2 billion annually — more than double the $904 million it sent in potash.“Saskatchewan is deeply concerned by the announcement from the China to launch an anti-dumping investigation on Canadian canola,” it read. “Saskatchewan’s producers have had to bear the brunt of Chinese retaliation in the past. We are disappointed that once again Saskatchewan will negatively impacted by Chinese retaliation. We encourage and expect engagement from the government of Canada at the highest levels to resolve this issue quickly.”
