Projections from 338Canada, a Canadian polling aggregator site, show that, based on current polling, the Liberal Party is currently projected to win a historic 12 seats in the province of Alberta if an election were held tomorrow. Historically the most seats the Liberals have ever won in the province was five, all the way back in the 1949 federal election, so a number in the double digits would smash that current record.The projection comes as recent polls have shown the Conservatives continuing to trail the Liberals by substantial double-digit margins.In fact, the most recent poll on the 338Canada site, a poll conducted by Nanos Research, shows numbers that would have the Liberals winning 14 seats.The Liberals currently only have three seats in the province, with one of those seats being the result of a floor crossing from Edmonton Riverbend MP Matt Jeneroux.Alberta has long been the heartland of Conservative support, with Canada's self-proclaimed "natural governing party" historically coming in third place behind Tories and the NDP, but new polling suggests that this historical stereotype may be changing.Recent federal polling has shown that the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals has continued to grow steadily. Looking at all polls from the beginning of October until now, the gap has ranged between 22 and 11 points..Looking riding-by-riding, according to 338, the areas where the Liberals would be the likeliest to pick up seats are all concentrated in the urban centres of Calgary and Edmonton.Outside of these areas, Alberta is solidly and safely blue, but these urban centres still account for a large portion of Alberta's federal ridings.When asked about why this shift is happening and what he will do to stem the tide, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre says he will "focus on the real problems and the real lives of real people."He also mentioned the Conservative plan to scrap the tanker ban and his party's commitment to "restore to promise of Canada.".While Poilievre and the Conservatives remain the most popular party in Alberta, this dominance has been showing small but significant cracks. If an election were held and the Liberals were able to get over ten seats in the Land of Oil and Cattle, it would likely mean that the Tories would see their total seat count drop significantly across the country. The one shining light for Poilievre and the Tories is that the next federal election is not set to take place until 2029, giving the Conservatives plenty of time to turn the ship around.Although, despite having a slim majority, Prime Minister Mark Carney may try his luck at an early snap election to capitalize on his positive polling numbers, but only time will tell.
