Alberta could pay for its own government, take over federal services and still have between $22.2 billion and $32.1 billion left over each year as an independent country, according to a report prepared for the Alberta Transition Council.The September 2026 white paper, Forward to Freedom, argues keeping taxes currently collected by Ottawa would give Alberta room to lower taxes, pay down debt and build savings while maintaining public services.However, the headline surplus excludes a negotiated share of federal debt and relies on assumptions about pension assets, replacement services and the costs of running a country.“Not whether it should. Whether it could, and with how much room to spare,” the report says of the question it sets out to answer..The 106-page assessment estimates an independent Alberta would collect between $129.1 billion and $137.8 billion annually, drawing on existing provincial revenue and federal taxes attributable to Albertans.It puts existing provincial spending and replacement federal functions at $96.9 billion, then adds between $8.8 billion and $10 billion for responsibilities including defence, indigenous programs, veterans, immigration and land management.The remaining balance represents roughly $4,390 to $6,350 per resident. That is a measure of fiscal capacity, rather than a promised payment to Albertans.The report’s central argument is that independence would change who collects taxes and pays bills without requiring Alberta to rebuild the hospitals, schools and other services it already operates.Federal health and social transfers would end, but the report assumes Alberta would retain the federal tax revenue collected from its residents and businesses.Its estimates put that annual federal revenue at between $68.3 billion and $77 billion, excluding Canada Pension Plan contributions, which are treated separately.The paper acknowledges those figures require estimation because there is no single directly measured account of all federal revenue attributable to Alberta. Its replacement costs also rely partly on the council’s working estimates..Tax relief is presented as one possible use of the projected surplus.One illustration would reduce personal income tax revenue by about one-third and bring the corporate tax rate to roughly 19%, at an annual cost of $17 billion to $22.2 billion.A larger package, cutting personal income taxes roughly in half, would cost between $24 billion and $31.1 billion annually. The report acknowledges that would exceed the surplus in its conservative case.Under the larger illustration, a single person earning $60,000 would save approximately $4,200 a year, while a family earning $165,000 would save about $12,600.Those figures illustrate possible tax changes rather than an adopted policy or immediate promise.Federal debt would reduce the available room..The report’s main estimate includes interest on Alberta’s existing debt but no federal debt settlement. Adding the $6.2 billion annual federal interest cost used in its population-share scenario would leave between $16 billion and $25.9 billion.No offset for federal assets transferred to Alberta is included.The paper also tests seven adverse developments, including lower household incomes, weaker energy revenue, a shrinking corporate tax base, higher borrowing costs and additional indigenous funding.The four risks it classifies as directly related to independence would cost $13.5 billion annually, leaving a surplus of between $8.7 billion and $18.6 billion.If all seven shocks occurred together, the result would range from a $7.2 billion deficit to a $2.7 billion surplus.Pensions are another major assumption.The report proposes a separate Alberta retirement system covering CPP-equivalent benefits, Old Age Security and the Guaranteed Income Supplement. Its main scenario assumes a $167 billion pension asset transfer, ongoing contributions and a 4% annual return after inflation.The paper acknowledges the transfer amount is disputed and cannot be determined by Alberta alone..It estimates government setup costs at approximately $4.96 billion over three years. That figure covers public administration and infrastructure, rather than the full economic effects of becoming independent.The report explicitly says it is not an economic forecast and does not model output, employment or trade. It also leaves several matters outside its core fiscal calculation, including continued access to existing North American trade agreements, potential non-cooperation by the rest of Canada and monetary-system arrangements.Funding allowances for indigenous programs do not settle treaty questions or determine negotiations with First Nations and Métis governments.The paper’s proposed sequence is to establish actual revenue, settle major liabilities and address debt before making tax cuts.Its conclusion is that Alberta could afford independence under the assumptions tested, while the size of any surplus would depend on negotiated terms, economic conditions and future spending decisions.
