Alberta would face nearly $5 billion in one-time costs to establish itself as an independent country, plus $3.63 billion in additional annual government operating costs, according to a report prepared for the Alberta Transition Council.The 135-page Budget and Costing Report estimates the transition would require about 14,000 new permanent employees and approximately 1,300 temporary workers to establish and operate functions currently handled by Ottawa.However, the headline estimate excludes any negotiated share of federal debt, military weapons and vehicles, potential currency support and billions in federal spending on First Nations and Métis programs.Issued September 5, the report puts one-time transition spending at $4.96 billion over roughly three years, averaging $1.65 billion annually. That includes $1.29 billion for systems, equipment, laboratories and other capital costs.“The estimates are built to settle a question of scale,” the report says..The costing covers 20 areas, including taxation, border control, policing, courts, immigration, defence and benefit payments. All figures are expressed in Canadian dollars using a fiscal 2026-27 price base.Beyond the initial transition, the report calculates Alberta would need to raise $21.11 billion annually through its own taxation to cover the identified operating costs and public payments, after offsets, and replace disappearing federal transfers.That figure is a funding requirement under the report’s assumptions, rather than a calculation of how much individual Albertans’ taxes would rise or fall. The document leaves tax rates and future program design to an independent Alberta’s first legislature.The annual requirement includes replacing $9.59 billion in federal transfers, including health and social transfers and bilateral health funding.The report separately identifies $11.59 billion in annual payments to the public, including benefits and pensions Alberta would assume under its planning model. It offsets some costs with $3.7 billion in employment insurance premiums.Its central assumption is that Albertans would continue receiving existing benefits during the transition, with Alberta taking over payments where required..About $6.05 billion annually would go toward replacing four federally funded benefits: the Canada Child Benefit, the Groceries and Essentials Benefit, the Canada Workers Benefit and the Canada Disability Benefit.The pension model assumes Canada would continue paying Canada Pension Plan benefits and Old Age Security payments that qualify for payment abroad. Alberta would cover approximately $2.13 billion annually in Guaranteed Income Supplement payments and Old Age Security for recipients the report assumes would not qualify.Policing, corrections and public safety would account for $1.11 billion in additional annual operating costs and 4,118 new permanent positions. The report treats existing provincial policing spending separately, arguing replacing the RCMP contract would not make the entire policing budget a new expense.The proposed defence force would comprise 300 permanent personnel and 1,800 territorial members, with annual operating costs of $415.5 million and one-time costs of $58.2 million.Those figures do not include weapons, vehicles or major military platforms. The report leaves the equipment program and permanent defence policy to a future legislature..Its banking model assumes continued use of the Canadian dollar during the transition, with access to existing payment and clearing systems arranged through agreements.The report also envisages an external liquidity facility of roughly $200 billion. It treats that as potential financial backing rather than spending, while acknowledging the cost of maintaining access would depend on the arrangement secured.Federal debt and assets are entered at zero for the costing exercise because their allocation would depend on negotiations. The report stresses this does not mean Alberta would owe nothing.It also excludes an estimated $3.1 billion to $3.8 billion in annual federal spending on First Nations and Métis programs, saying future responsibilities would depend on agreements with individual governments.The document does not forecast economic growth, employment or trade, and does not establish whether an independent Alberta would collect enough revenue to meet its obligations. It assigns that question to a companion report, Forward to Freedom.Albertans will vote on Oct. 19 about whether they want to pursue a binding independence referendum, and no date has been set for a potential second vote. The transition timetable would follow a negotiated settlement with Canada.
