High-resource revenues boost Alberta's fiscal update to a forecasted $2B surplus

EDMONTON — Alberta Finance Minister Jason Nixon unveiled the Alberta government's updated 2026-27 fiscal projections on Thursday, flipping the year-end forecast from an initial $9.4 billion deficit to a $2 billion surplus, largely driven by a $9.7 billion increase in expected resource revenues. “Alberta has been given an opportunity, and Alberta’s government will not waste it," said Nixon. "Alberta's path forward will be built on our commitment to protect the services Albertans count on, keep spending under control, and manage taxpayer dollars with the discipline this moment calls for – so Alberta remains strong not just today, but for generations to come.”The fiscal update reports a revenue increase of $11.7 billion for the fiscal year, compared with the UCP's initial projections in March. Government expenses are also set to rise compared to initial estimates, increasing $315 million.High oil prices due to the US-Iran conflict played a heavy role in the improved outlook, as Alberta's updated figures are now forecast based on the West Texas Index price sitting at $73.50 per barrel, which is $13 more than the initial base price. After the conflict caused the WTI average to rise above $90 per barrel from April to June, the UCP government says the price would need to average greater than $65 per barrel to maintain the updated forecasted surplus. The high oil prices did leave a slight dent in the government's expense projections, though, as operating expenses are now forecast to be $635 million higher than initially expected, largely due to $357 million distributed under the Alberta Energy Rebate program. Alberta's economic outlook also improved, with real GDP growth now at 2.3%, unemployment falling to 6.6%, and Alberta's economy expected to be fairly sheltered from the US tariffs on Canadian goods.

High-resource revenues boost Alberta's fiscal update to a forecasted $2B surplus

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