Climate activists — and federal politicians — be damned. Canadian oil output is growing in 2023 and is expected to keep growing for the next two years, according to the government’s own accounting..Despite a tumultuous year, Canada is poised to rack up its biggest production gains in more than five years starting in 2023, analysts say..According to Canadian Energy Regulator data, the country — the prairies mostly — produced a record 4.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, with 4.6 million coming from Alberta and Saskatchewan. The East Coast offshore chipped in a more modest 231,000 bpd. .And despite outages from fires and unplanned maintenance at oil sands facilities this summer, that number is expected to top five million bpd later this year and keep growing 8%, or 370,000 bpd, through 2025. .It would be more than the last five years combined and the first time Canadian oil output has hit the five million bpd level, which would rank it firmly as the world’s fourth-largest oil producer after the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia..With the start of the TransMountain expansion early next year, producers should have room to keep growing that number over the medium term — assuming it remains a viable economic proposition..The expected gains come as producers such as Cenovus and Canadian Natural Resources CNR) are tweaking existing oil sands operations and adding capacity to wring more heavy crude from the ground..Both companies are amping up their respective thermal bitumen operations near Christina Lake in northeast Alberta. CNR will add four new steam pads capable of pumping 65,000 bpd at Kirby, while Cenovus plans to open up more ground with new wells at Narrrows Lake in 2025..Meanwhile, the early impact of wildfires in Northern Alberta is starting to show up in the official production numbers. Total output in Alberta alone fell almost 225,000 bpd from April to May — the most recent month numbers are available — or nearly 5%..At an average price of US$70 per barrel, that amounts to about $500 million in lost revenue for the month..Whether the fires were exclusively due to climate change — indirectly caused by higher fossil fuel production — is debatable, but a fire researcher from Imperial College in London said this week there is little doubt the number and severity of the blazes is increasing. As well as the economic cost..More than 1.2 million hectares went up in flames in Alberta alone this summer, much of it in oil producing regions which contributed to the cost..“The combination of heat, wind and high vegetation loads in the boreal forest is deadly. There have always been wildfires in Canada, but climate change is making them larger, faster, and harder to stop,” said Professor of Fire Science Guillermo Rein.
