Where there’s smoke there’s usually a corresponding volume of hot air. Especially when it comes to China’s climate change commitments to reduce emissions and reach net zero by 2060 — not 2050 — under terms of the Paris Accord.China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s central planning agency, is vowing to “redouble efforts in energy conservation and carbon reduction” after it “fell short of expectations” in 2023.That’s because the communist country is well behind its five-year plan of slashing overall energy intensity by 13.5% and carbon intensity by 18% before 2025..The intensity rates measure how much energy is consumed and emitted CO2 per unit of economic growth, are the central plank in the country’s pledge to bring emissions to a peak before 2030 and ultimately down to net zero by 2060.According to ‘official’ numbers, China’s energy intensity fell 0.5% in 2023, the country’s statistics bureau said last month, missing a 2% target. But that’s because it retroactively changed the definition of ‘energy intensity’; if it would have included all sources it would have actually increased 0.5%.Even that could be low. In 2022, China’s corruption watchdog warned that some regions were providing fraudulent energy and carbon intensity figures that were overly positive.The irony is that China has long emphasized its ability to meet targets while criticizing others for not meeting theirs.Analysts said the world’s biggest polluter — and second largest economy — has lacked the will to cut emissions because of its focus on energy security. That’s why it has no plans to curb the use of coal in power generation, widely considered the world’s most polluting fossil fuel..That prompted the head of the international Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air to complain the Chinese government “risks a serious loss of diplomatic credibility” at multilateral gatherings such as last year’s COP28 climate confab in Dubai.And in fact, federal Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault serves as Executive Vice-Chair of the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development, with links to the Politburo, devoted to helping the country meet its emissions reduction targets.China’s rising emissions account for 35% of the world’s annual total. On a per capita basis, emissions are 15% higher per capita than the OECD average, the International Energy Agency (EIA) said last week.Without a major boost to its climate efforts, “meeting the five-year intensity targets by 2025 will be very challenging,” said Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute in Washington, as per Reuters. “This year’s government work report certainly did not signal that level of decisiveness.”
Where there’s smoke there’s usually a corresponding volume of hot air. Especially when it comes to China’s climate change commitments to reduce emissions and reach net zero by 2060 — not 2050 — under terms of the Paris Accord.China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s central planning agency, is vowing to “redouble efforts in energy conservation and carbon reduction” after it “fell short of expectations” in 2023.That’s because the communist country is well behind its five-year plan of slashing overall energy intensity by 13.5% and carbon intensity by 18% before 2025..The intensity rates measure how much energy is consumed and emitted CO2 per unit of economic growth, are the central plank in the country’s pledge to bring emissions to a peak before 2030 and ultimately down to net zero by 2060.According to ‘official’ numbers, China’s energy intensity fell 0.5% in 2023, the country’s statistics bureau said last month, missing a 2% target. But that’s because it retroactively changed the definition of ‘energy intensity’; if it would have included all sources it would have actually increased 0.5%.Even that could be low. In 2022, China’s corruption watchdog warned that some regions were providing fraudulent energy and carbon intensity figures that were overly positive.The irony is that China has long emphasized its ability to meet targets while criticizing others for not meeting theirs.Analysts said the world’s biggest polluter — and second largest economy — has lacked the will to cut emissions because of its focus on energy security. That’s why it has no plans to curb the use of coal in power generation, widely considered the world’s most polluting fossil fuel..That prompted the head of the international Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air to complain the Chinese government “risks a serious loss of diplomatic credibility” at multilateral gatherings such as last year’s COP28 climate confab in Dubai.And in fact, federal Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault serves as Executive Vice-Chair of the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development, with links to the Politburo, devoted to helping the country meet its emissions reduction targets.China’s rising emissions account for 35% of the world’s annual total. On a per capita basis, emissions are 15% higher per capita than the OECD average, the International Energy Agency (EIA) said last week.Without a major boost to its climate efforts, “meeting the five-year intensity targets by 2025 will be very challenging,” said Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute in Washington, as per Reuters. “This year’s government work report certainly did not signal that level of decisiveness.”
