Alberta’s two major cities, Calgary and Edmonton, lead the nation in interprovincial population growth in 2024, with an estimated 60,000 people arriving from Ontario and BC alone.
The new arrivals kept realtors and home builders in each city busy, with records broken in both for new home starts, including the third record-breaking year in a row in Calgary.
Going forward, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), in its Housing Market Outlook 2025 report, says the rate of growth will slow slightly in each city.
Here are the agency’s overviews of each Alberta city.
Calgary
The city’s strong population growth in recent years is expected to slow as federal policies impact international migration, however CMHC says “Calgary’s recent growth has been supported by strong interprovincial migration led by migrants from Toronto and Vancouver and even with the higher price growth forecasted, Calgary will remain an attractive option for prospective internal (and international) migrants who are looking for a cosmopolitan urban centre with more affordable housing.”
The resale market is forecasted to see a slight increase in activity this year.
“We expect Calgary’s resale market to see a slight increase in activity in 2025 after remaining flat between 2023 and 2024,” says CMHC. “We anticipate sustained demand supported by increases in borrowing capacity and continued (though diminished) demographic and economic growth.”
A lack of new listings could hold back sales numbers initially, but CMHC says to expect more balanced conditions as the year progresses.
In the new home market, “recent and expected price growth and reduced financing costs will support elevated construction levels, as will supportive policy changes such as the approval in November of adjustments to Calgary’s service plan and budget to support investments in housing, land use and local planning,” says CMHC. “This funding will support the development of new communities to increase the housing supply and help with redevelopment in older neighbourhoods.”
“We expect slowing growth in demand and recent effects of large increases in supply (including elevated vacancy rates) to lead to some caution from developers and a slowdown in new construction.”
The supply of the city’s purpose-built rental homes saw an unprecedented increase of roughly 10%, according to CMHC’s Rental Market Survey.
“Along with this increase came a notable uptick in the vacancy rate, which jumped from 1.4% in 2023 to 4.8% in 2024,” says the report. “We expect growth in the stock to continue along with increases to the vacancy rate and slowing growth in rents.”
Edmonton
“Despite recent rent and price growth in Edmonton, this city remains one of the most affordable of Canada’s largest urban centres. Edmonton will remain an attractive option for international and internal migrants, even as international in-migration slows nationally,” says CMHC.
“We expect the resale market in Edmonton to remain quite active in 2025, following a very busy 2024. A tight resale market will contribute to price growth over the forecast horizon, tapering towards 2027 as the market returns to more balanced conditions.”
New home construction in Edmonton last year broke a record from 2015, but CMHC forecasts a slowdown.
“We expect some hesitancy from developers in the face of slowing demand and high vacancy rates. A high (though declining) level of construction will be supported by sustained price and rent growth, as well as by local policies and programs,” says CMHC.
Those policies and programs include approvals of shovel-ready development sites for affordable housing and the introduction of an automated development permit review process to expedite housing approvals.
Additionally, “the Infill Infrastructure Fund covers up to $4 million of shared public infrastructure costs for multi-housing developments in existing neighbourhoods, supporting both market and non-market projects,” says CMHC, adding, “Single-detached housing remains a major source of starts in Edmonton. High levels of completed and unabsorbed inventories may weigh on single-detached starts but builders in Edmonton haven’t been especially sensitive to growing inventory in the past, particularly in the face of sustained demand.”
“We expect strong growth in the rental stock, a gradual increase in the vacancy rate and slowing growth in rents.”
