Despite tariff threats, Canadian oil exports to US hit all-time high

The numbers don’t lie.

And despite the threat of potentially crippling tariffs on Canadian energy, oil exports to the US hit an all-time high last week according to no less an authority than the American government itself.

According to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Lower 48 imported 4.42 million barrels per day (bpd) of Canadian crude — almost all of it from Alberta and Saskatchewan — for the week ended January 3, up almost 25% from a year ago.

That was 689,000 bpd higher than the week prior, amounting to more than 68% of all oil imported into the US. Coincidentally, that number is nearly identical to the added capacity from the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion on the West Coast. 

The next nearest contender was Mexico at a relatively meagre 392,000 bpd, which was down from 522,000 bpd the week before.

In all, the US imported 6.43 million bpd even as it exported 3.08 million bpd. Total domestic production, including Alaska, came in at 13.56 million bpd which was up about 3% from a year ago.

It comes incoming president Donald Trump continues to threaten blanket 25% tariffs on all imports from both Canada and Mexico.

“On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders," Trump said after his election in November.

On Monday, he doubled down on assertions that Canada should become the 51st state. “Canada and the United States, that would really be something. You get rid of that artificially drawn line and you take a look at what that looks like, and it would also be much better for national security,” Trump said.

“We don’t need their cars. We don’t need their lumber… We don’t need anything, so why are we losing $200 billion a year and more to protect Canada?”

If he were to follow through on that threat — and there’s every indication he will based on his continuing rhetoric against Canada — it would cost US refiners about USD$66 million per day based on the already discounted price of $60 per barrel.

Observers say it would be disastrous for both countries and especially Alberta, which last year sold about $147 billion worth of products to the US amounting 90% of exports. The vast majority of that was oil and gas.

According to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) a 25% tariff would result in lower Canadian energy production and higher prices for consumers on both sides of the border.

Consequently, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is mounting a one-woman campaign to dissuade the president elect from following through on his threats by appealing to his business sense — and ego — and being the only Canadian leader to attend his inauguration on January 20.

“As the largest exporter of oil and gas to the U.S., we look forward to working with the new administration to strengthen energy security for both the US and Canada,” she said in a statement prior to the Christmas break.