No country has ever done it. .Not Russia; not Saudi Arabia; and certainly not Canada. And after 2030 no country ever likely will again..According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) the US is on track to produce 13.1 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) by the middle of next year, smashing an all-time high by any single country in any single era. Ever.."We forecast continued growth in domestic oil production, which is bolstered by higher oil prices and higher well productivity in the near term," said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis..Expected average US oil production of 12.8 million bpd this year will also be a record, according to the EIA’s short-term energy outlook released on Tuesday, representing an impressive 1 million bpd increase over 2022..The previous world record holder was the former Soviet Union which maxed out around 12.3 million bpd in the 1980s. .The forecast is predicated on higher oil prices and sustained global demand, augmented by production cuts among OPEC members and the continuation of the war in Ukraine. It’s also based on stronger than expected GDP growth of 1.9%, up from 1.5% in last month’s forecast and receding recession fears..Although Saudi Arabia has capacity to produce 13 million bpd, the OPEC lynchpin’s extended voluntary production cuts will contribute to oil prices rising through the year, EIA said. .The European Brent crude oil price — which is derived from the Scottish North Sea — was near $75 per barrel at the beginning of July and increased throughout the month to surpass $86 per barrel on Aug. 4. EIA forecasts Brent prices to increase through the rest of 2023 and approach $90 per barrel by the end of the year..That in turn will provide the impetus for American producers to “drill baby, drill” in the words of former Alaska governor Sarah Pailin..Consequently, the EIA forecasts US regular gasoline prices will average about $3.63 per gallon for the rest of 2023, an increase from its previous forecast of $3.27 per gallon..Higher gasoline prices are largely the result of higher crude oil prices and a series of unplanned refinery outages in the Lower 48 so far this summer..That can’t be good news for US President Joe Biden heading into an election year..It’s also not good for Canada, which is finding its largest customer become its largest competitor as this country’s political leaders look to limit or actually cut production as part of its climate strategy..Also in the August outlook, the EIA expects that July’s high temperatures and resulting demand for air conditioning led to near-record levels of electricity consumption and in turn natural gas. .The EIA estimates about 388 billion kilowatthours of electricity was consumed in the US during July, about equal to the record for monthly consumption set in August 2022.."Most of the country felt some brutal heat in July and just like last summer, that heat significantly increased electricity consumption," DeCarolis said.
