Western Canada sits on extraordinary economic potential that remains artificially constrained by federal policies designed to redistribute wealth eastward. Recent polling suggests Saskatchewan has overtaken Alberta in its appetite for independence — a shift that highlights growing frustration with a system that penalizes success. The economic fundamentals show that Alberta and Saskatchewan together would create one of the world's most economically self-sufficient nations..The Fiscal Drain: Why Confederation Costs Us BillionsAlberta has suffered a financial drain of $244.6 billion to Canadian federalism between 2007-2022 (Fraser Institute). In 2022 alone, Albertans were forced to pay $14.2 billion more to federal revenues than was returned in federal spending (Fraser Institute). The inequitable equalization system has funnelled over $631 billion eastward between 1961-2018 (University of Calgary)..Alberta endures the heaviest burden as the largest net contributor at over $3,700 per person annually throughout 1961-2018, escalating beyond $5,000 per person per year in recent decades (University of Calgary). For a family of four, that's over $20,000 annually flowing out of the province. Meanwhile, Quebec received nearly $500 billion in net inflows during this period, while Prince Edward Island enjoyed benefits of $8,673 per person annually between 2010-2018 (University of Calgary)..This isn't just unfair — it's economically destructive. These resources could be reinvested in infrastructure, education, healthcare, and economic diversification instead of subsidizing less productive regions; especially the same regions hindering our economic progress via their destructive political ideologies. .Alberta's Economic Powerhouse StatusAs an independent nation, Alberta would rank 44th in the world based on GDP — higher than Finland, Portugal, and New Zealand (World Bank). Alberta's economy generated $353.3 billion in GDP in 2024 (Alberta.ca), creating a GDP per capita of $71,639 (Alberta.ca) that surpasses Sweden, Austria, Germany, and Canada itself..The resource profile is remarkable: as a sovereign nation, Alberta would rank 3rd worldwide in oil reserves, 8th in natural gas production, 17th in wheat production, and 19th in beef production, with more farmable land than Japan and the United Kingdom. Alberta's $175 billion in 2023 exports (ATB) place it 39th globally, ahead of Israel, Portugal, and Romania (CIA). Alberta maintains a robust debt-to-GDP ratio of 17.2% (Morningstar), positioning it among the most financially sound jurisdictions globally..Saskatchewan's Growing Economic StrengthSaskatchewan's economic momentum strengthens the case for joint independence. The province's 2024 export figures show a robust $45.4 billion in exports (Sask Today). Saskatchewan's real GDP reached a record high of $80.5 billion in 2024, with growth of 3.4% from 2023 — well over the national average increase of 1.6%. As an independent nation, this would place Saskatchewan 69th worldwide in exports (CIA), above Croatia, Serbia, Pakistan, and Costa Rica.Saskatchewan's export economy reached 161 countries in 2024, with uranium exports increasing 50% to reach $2.8 billion, record potash export volumes totaling 22.8 million metric tonnes, canola seed exports up 25% from 2023, and canola meal exports increased 14% from 2023 (Sask Today).The Combined Economic CaseAlberta's 2024 GDP of $353.3 billion combined with Saskatchewan's $80.5 billion equals $433.8 billion collectively. Alberta's 2023 GDP of $356.8 billion and Saskatchewans 2023 GDP of $77.9B would place an independent Alberta-Saskatchewan at $433B, 34th globally ahead of Vietnam, Denmark, Iran and more.When combined with Alberta's exports, an independent Alberta-Saskatchewan would boast approximately $220 billion in annual exports, positioning it as the 36th largest exporting nation globally — surpassing Portugal, Romania, and Israel, and ranking just behind Norway..Beyond the Petrostate LabelCritics dismiss Alberta as an oil-dependent economy, but this characterization ignores economic reality. The oil and gas sector constitutes only 24.6% of Alberta's economy (Alberta.ca), leaving nearly three-quarters of economic activity in non-resource sectors. A University of Calgary Public Policy Publication states "by most measures, the Alberta economy has become much more industrially diversified over time than is commonly understood, especially in terms of employment and the diversity of goods and services produced" (University of Calgary).Alberta leads the nation in employment diversity according to 2020 rankings (Fraser Institute) and stands as Canada's fourth-most diversified provincial economy, outperforming both Ontario and British Columbia in GDP concentration metrics (Fraser Institute). This diversification ratio would place an independent Alberta among well-diversified developed nations.Geographic Realities and OpportunitiesCritics cite Alberta's landlocked status as a fatal flaw, but this overlooks that Alberta is already landlocked as a province. Independence wouldn't change geography but would improve negotiating positions regarding coastal access. The world has 44 officially recognized landlocked countries housing 475.8 million people (Surfer Today) — including some of the world's wealthiest nations..Switzerland and Austria demonstrate that landlocked nations can achieve extraordinary prosperity. A sovereign Alberta would be the second wealthiest landlocked country on earth, behind only Switzerland. Many countries with extensive coastlines struggle economically, proving that national success depends on governance, economic systems, and natural resources, not merely geographic access to oceans..Learning from Norway's SuccessNorway offers a compelling parallel for Alberta's potential path. Norway peacefully separated from Sweden in 1905 — coincidentally the same year Alberta joined Canada. The similarities are striking: Norway functions successfully with 5.5 million people while Alberta recently surpassed 5 million residents. Norway's oil and gas sector constitutes 24% of its GDP (ITA), nearly identical to Alberta's 24.6% (Alberta.ca)..Norway's merchandise exports reached $229 billion in 2024 (CIA), with Alberta at $179 billion (ATB). As independent nations, Norway ranks 35th globally while Alberta would rank 39th, and Alberta-Saskatchewan combined would rank 36th. Both maintain well-diversified economies with approximately three-quarters of economic activity in non-resource sectors.Like Norway before independence, Alberta faces challenges as a "lesser partner" within confederation despite significant economic contributions. Norway's separation resulted from its desire for self-determination, particularly regarding foreign policy representation — concerns that resonate strongly in Alberta today.The Path ForwardAn independent Alberta-Saskatchewan would possess advantages that few countries can match. Combined GDP would position the nation among the world's top 35 economies, with export capacity ranking 36th globally. The resource profile rivals entire G7 nations, while economic diversification provides stability across energy, agriculture, and minerals.The debt-to-GDP ratios would be superior to most developed nations, and the strategic location between major North American markets creates natural economic corridors with established trade relationships.Alberta and Saskatchewan don't need Canada to thrive economically. The constraints of confederation actively impede our path to full economic potential. Independence would allow us to chart our own economic course, implement policies tailored to local conditions, and finally realize the prosperity our resources and productivity should deliver.With economic fundamentals already outperforming numerous sovereign nations, this union possesses every prerequisite to join the ranks of the world's most prosperous independent countries. The question isn't whether we can succeed independently — it's how much longer we can afford to remain in a system designed to extract our wealth for the benefit of others.
