EDMONTON — As the independence debate spreads across Alberta, one expert said Premier Danielle Smith is likely safe as UCP leader, but the shockwaves from the October referendum could have repercussions down the road. According to an Angus Reid Institute poll released on Friday, just 33% of respondents support Alberta pursuing a binding independence referendum. However, among respondents who identify as UCP voters, support jumps to 60%.Premier Danielle Smith has stated she supports Alberta remaining in Canada, but that puts her in a bind, as many of her party's members, especially at the grassroots level, want an independent Alberta and will fight any opposition in their way.."You saw attempts at separatist parties; they did not have any electoral success, and so instead, the new strategy is to simply take over or infiltrate the United Conservative Party," said Mount Royal University political science professor Duane Bratt in an interview with the Western Standard. "And is it 40%, is it 50%, is it 60%, I don't know, but you can see it with the caucus.""You can see it within the executive council. You can see it with the constituency associations, and you definitely see it with voters and supporters as they have taken a very different tact than other separatist movements around the world." Leading figures in the Alberta independence movement often boast about their efforts to revolt against Smith's predecessor, Jason Kenney, in response to restrictions he imposed on Albertans during the COVID-19 pandemic, which has led some to question Smith's security if she gets on their bad side. However, Smith has said independence supporters should focus on winning the referendum in October, not on removing her. .According to Bratt, many of those who axed Kenney are focused on the referendum, but things could get interesting after the ballots are counted. "The next party convention is within weeks of the referendum," Bratt said. "Is that enough time to mobilize against her? Now, there could be a problem. But I don't think she's in danger, and she doesn't act like she thinks she's in danger at the moment."Bratt said that after facing backlash over her floor-crossing decision as Wildrose Party leader in 2014, and cleaning up the post-pandemic UCP, Smith is aware that the group currently calling for her removal is loud but small. "But who knows, if the referendum comes and they don't get the result that they want, do they then blame Smith for that?" Bratt said. "I mean, they can't go after Kenney, they can't go after Poilievre, they can't go after Nenshi. So is Smith the target?".Regardless of whether Smith makes it to the October 2027 Alberta election, individuals have speculated about how significant the repercussions of Alberta independence will be. "What do the separatists do that are mad at Smith?” Bratt said. “Do they try to remove her, or do they leave?" The conservative vote in 2027 may not get split to the degree it was in 2015, when the Wildrose and Progressive Conservative helped pave the way for an Alberta NDP majority government, but with the UCP currently holding a five-seat majority, it does not need to be. Bratt does not suspect that the Progressive Tory Party of Alberta will attract enough middle-conservative voters to make a meaningful dent, but an independence party could cause some trouble for the UCP. "If that becomes big enough, even at something that gets 6 or 7% of the vote provincially, it's going to win seats in parts of rural Alberta, but it could also create an atmosphere for a split in the vote and the NDP winning," Bratt said. Even if the UCP is able to limit the cracks and Smith retains her leadership, independence supporters will continue to sit at the core of the party, and Bratt claims they risk replicating the referendum results come election time. "Because you know, even if Danielle Smith is operating as a pro-Canadian, if there are candidates who are explicit separatists, you know that Nenshi and others will will focus on that," he said.
