Premier Naheed Nenshi.That’s the finding of a new Sovereign North Strategies poll which shows the UCP and NDP running nearly tied despite a sharp rural/urban divide.The UCP maintains a one-point lead on the NDP — at 47% vs 46% of decided voters, but if an election were held tomorrow the final results would likely tip to the latter owing to higher levels of support in both Edmonton and Calgary.And Nenshi holds a commanding lead over Premier Danielle Smith in terms of leader favourability, at 49% approval compared to just 37% for Smith. More telling is their relative unpopularity — or unfavorable ranking — which stands at 41% for Smith and just 24% for Nenshi, even in Calgary.Moreover, 58% of people think Alberta is going in the wrong direction compared to just 42% who think things are on track..“Results indicate that high unfavourability ratings for UCP leader Danielle Smith are hurting her party’s overall popular support. If a hypothetical election were to be held tomorrow, it would be likely that the NDP would form government due to the efficiency of their vote in seat-rich urban areas,” it said.According Sovereign North managing partner Cameron Davies, a previous Abacus poll in the first week of July that found the UCP with a commanding 14 point lead jibe with his firm’s findings in rural Alberta, but not the cities. In Calgary, 49% of voters favour the NDP compared to 45% for the UCP.In Edmonton — no surprise — it’s 57% for the NDP and 36% for the UCP.In an interview, Davies said the totals show the complete collapse of third parties such as the Greens or the upstart Alberta Party..Davies defended his firm’s results compared to other polls.“Look, it's not lost on me that the last provincial poll that came out shows very different numbers. We do our dead level best, and this is why we do only conduct live calls. We balance that with cell phones and landlines. We have sample sizes that try to reduce the margin of error as best, as best we can, and we're only talking to live people. These aren't online surveys. These aren't Interactive voice responses.” And he said it’s also quite common for a party with a new leader to enjoy a bump in the polls.Nonetheless, the numbers are surely cause for concern for the premier as she heads into a leadership review on November 2.Davies said the favourability numbers suggest Smith is relying on her party brand to maintain power while with Nenshi it’s the opposite — the NDP is clearly being buoyed by his presence as leader, similar to the role Rachel Notley played in contrasting an unpopular federal party..Davies said it’s not unexpected given that Nenshi pulled off a stunning leadership victory that energized the party and its core base.By contrast, Smith is a known quantity in Alberta politics and has had to grapple with some difficult policy decisions over the last legislative session including healthcare and the idea of pulling out of the Canada Pension Plan.Healthcare is traditionally a strong issue for the NDP, with 59% compared to 41% for the UCP, but even on affordability — traditionally a bread and butter issue for conservatives — 53% said they trust Nenshi compared to 47% for Smith.And though he said it’s no surprise that Nenshi would be more popular in Edmonton, Davies questioned the Calgary findings given his reputation as a “tax and spend” mayor. In that regard, he suspects Nenshi is benefitting from the unpopularity of current mayor Jyoti Gondek and a hint of nostalgia for his time as mayor..He also noted that the demographic makeup of the city itself has changed even since the May, 2023 election with the addition of almost 100,000 newcomers.“I think when we look at favorability, the only metric that you can compare it to, that's an inter-party situation… where is the party after and then where is the leader at? And that's often, sometimes something that even parties do when they are looking at candidates in general elections,” he said.“Does the candidate give us a boost in this particular riding or not, or does the party carry the day in that riding? And so I think that's something that that political analysts will have to look at on the UCP side and and really do a deep dive into where are those unfavorable numbers. And why?” Total responses from those self- identifying as decided voters were 2,861. Within this, 922 resided in the City of Calgary and 763 resided in the City of Edmonton. The sample’s data has been weighted to reflect the age/sex composition in Alberta as per the 2021 Census.
