EDMONTON — Alberta Premier Danielle Smith took to the stage in Edmonton Friday night to address the faithful of her United Conservative Party, expecting the usually loving flow of applause that she is used to from this audience. She instead found herself trying to stay in the saddle of an unexpectedly wild bucking horse.It was during the so-called "bear pit session" that she was faced with a rather hostile question from Alberta Prosperity Project independence leader Jeffrey Rath. Instead of querying the premier, he put the question to the room."Who here believes in a free and independent Alberta? Stand up and raise your hands!"The unscheduled straw poll drew rapturous response, with at least three-fourths of the room jumping to their feet and loudly proclaiming their support for Alberta independence..It was a touching moment. I had to rub my eyes to make sure that it wasn't William Wallace that I spotted charging across the convention floor in Alberta-blue war paint..Independent and mainstream media alike quickly pointed to this as an unofficial endorsement of the party’s membership for independence. It was something that Premier Smith had hoped to avoid, having worked with party brass to vote against holding a debate at the convention on independence months earlier. That decision clearly failed to put the genie back in the bottle.Smith responded calmly, making the case that it wasn't time to give up on Canada, particularly now that she signed the Alberta-Ottawa energy agreement with Prime Minister Mark Carney. She clearly worked hard negotiating an agreement that would see Alberta’s oil exports doubled, and which she feels is in Alberta’s best interest. But it came with a steep price tag from Ottawa attached, including a massive increase to the industrial carbon tax. This is a tacit acceptance by Alberta’s UCP government of Ottawa's right to set a minimum tax on carbon emissions, at least on the industrial, non-consumer side. Despite the conditions set by Ottawa, Smith clearly feels that this was a huge win for her and for Alberta..And so the premier was taken aback when the crowd roundly booed — not her per se, but her comments. They clearly do not like the deal. They see it as selling out to Ottawa. She is asking an angry army that she has led onto the field to now sheath their swords and trust the enemy. She doubled-down on her defence of the pipeline agreement in her keynote address Saturday morning, linking it to tampering down the fervor of the nationalists.“Let us not throw in the towel and give up on our country just as the battle has turned in our favour and victory is in sight.” Again, it was not received well. More boos, albeit sprinkled with some applause. .Smith made the error of believing that the independence movement can be satiated with some victories on the pipeline and oil production file. That might be true with some nationalists in the business class, but to most nationalists, pipeline and oil production problems are a symptom of national rot that is deeply set in the federal state. It isn’t about getting a pipeline built for them. It is about unchaining themselves from a dying man.Speaking with party members before and after the bear-pit with Smith, the sentiment was almost unanimously against the Alberta-Ottawa accord. This was surprising, to me at least. Members of political parties who care enough to show up to conventions normally tend to have a high degree of deference to the wishes of the leader. But this is no ordinary political party right now. The United Conservative Party was founded in 2017 — on paper at least — as an explicitly federalist party, but there was always an undercurrent of sovereigntist or even independence support emanating mostly from the former Wildrose wing. That undercurrent began to rise to the surface as the leadership of former premier Jason Kenney ran into trouble beginning in 2020-2021. By the time he was ousted, it was strong enough to propel Danielle Smith to the leadership and premiership with the promise of her Sovereignty Act. .The re-election of the federal Liberals to power for yet another term added yet more fuel to the fire. Smith responded sensibly by amending the citizens’ initiative legislation to set the bar at a more reasonable level for triggering a referendum — for any issue, including independence. Thanks to the help of Alison Redford’s former deputy, Thomas Lukaszuk, he has unwittingly ensured that Albertans will vote in such an independence referendum, likely in 2026. Smith knows that a majority of her members and voters back independence, but that a sizeable minority do not. She is trying desperately to avoid allowing the issue to split the party and her government. Forces lining up on the federalist side of the referendum will be less divided: the federal and Alberta NDP, the federal Liberals, and inevitably, the federal Conservatives. .That leaves three major political machines and most of the economic and social establishment lined up against the independence cause, with only a motley crew of grassroots activists against them. If the independence movement is to have any hope of winning this fight, they will need a major political machine of their own. Most nationalists very much want to enlist the UCP in their crusade, and care less about the internal political fallout that would likely result. Smith has repeatedly said that this is a debate for Albertans and not for political parties. That’s fair to a point, but she is arguing that her party should be the only party not engaged in what amounts to an existential struggle for the future of Alberta itself. None of the other parties — federal and provincial — are likely to sit on the sidelines. Short of local constituency associations forcing a special general meeting on the issue, it’s unlikely that nationalist members will be able to force the issue. But this has clearly created a major problem for the premier. .She could follow the advice of Calgary Herald columnist Don Braid and “tell the separatists there’s no room for them in the party. They should either change their spots or check out.”That option would almost certainly result in the premier suffering the same fate as her predecessor, Jason Kenney. And it’s unlikely that Smith would believe that doing so is right in the first place. So, scratch that idea. The premier has to ride the wild horse that she rode in on. Not getting bucked off is going to be a challenge with no easy answer.
