FILDEBRANDT: Danielle Smith says Carney has a "limited window" as independence picks up steam

It's the tightest of ropes that Alberta Premier Smith is walking on. She is trying her damndest to keep both the federalists and the Alberta nationalists at peace with one another inside the United Conservative Party tent. It's going to be a toughy, but it seems to be working. For now. I sat down with the premier on Wednesday to tease out her address of May 5, where she took on the looming independence question. In that address, Smith condensed down her nine demands for redress to four: pipeline access to the three coasts, equalization and transfer reform, repeal of anti-energy and development legislation, and no federal export taxes on Alberta oil and gas. .WATCH: Danielle Smith on Alberta Independence.Notably absent from that list was constitutional reform, which sees Alberta and Saskatchewan treated as second-class citizens in both House of Commons and Senate representation. As mild and achievable as I thought those demands were, others say the feds couldn't possibly meet them..When asked what happens next if the six months she gave the feds elapses without progress, she was... diplomatic."I hope that doesn't happen."She doesn't take the news well that Trudeau's environment and climate change minister, Steven Guilbeault is still around Carney's cabinet table, now in charge of further regulating the media."I have grave concern that Steven Guilbeault is still mouthing off.""He's lying frankly, saying that the Trans Mountain Pipeline is only 40% full and there's no need to build new pipelines. He's dead wrong, and he needs to be corrected. Trans Mountain Pipeline is 80% used.".She's just warming up."The worry that I have is the freelancing that we see on the extreme voices in the Liberal caucus, and I don't think we have a very clear idea of whether or not there has been a pivot and change of direction. I want to see action, not talk. And the talk I'm hearing so far is not encouraging."Polling shows the left in Alberta is almost uniformly federalist. On the other side, a substantial majority of conservatives would vote for independence, but that still leaves a sizeable minority of her party’s supporters who remain federalists. Keeping those two warring factions together inside the big blue tent will be difficult, but the premier thinks she can do it."It's a compromise. You pass policy on things that you can agree with, and you are silent on things that you don't agree on."."The citizen-initiated referendum process is one mechanism to be able to allow for citizens to be able to identify issues that matter and put them to a general vote of the electorate, and so I'm watching those movements just along with everyone else. And acknowledging them is not the same as endorsing them."That's true. But what if the independence question comes to a vote at the next UCP AGM, forcing the issue? Smith says she hopes it won't because it would be a violation of the agreement between the Wildrose and PC parties that created the UCP, which declared support for "constitutional sovereignty within a united Canada."Correct, however that wording was rejected by UCP members at its founding convention. At present, there appears to be nothing in the UCP's constitution or statement of principles that weds the party to federalism.Smith's first real test of keeping the independence movement an intramural matter will be the by-election in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, triggered by the resignation of Speaker Nathan Cooper to take a post as Alberta's representative in Washington. That constituency made waves in 1982 when voters there elected Gordon Kesler of the Western Canada Concept Party... in a by-election..That sound you hear is the constellation of nascent independence parties smacking their lips at the chance to repeat history.As the Western Standard reported in a scoop today, the premier will appoint Tara Sawyer to carry the UCP banner there. This heads off a federalist v. nationalist battle for the party's local nomination at the pass, but has the potential to create an opening for a candidate openly in support of independence.Will the premier's willingness to let independence be put to a ballot via citizen's initiative be enough to keep the local seditionists satisfied? Or is the prospect of Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills electing an open nationalist just too tempting a grenade to throw?Smith's not driving the independence train, but she warns that Carney had better act fast before too many Albertans hop on."I think we just have to accept the reality here that there's some really angry and upset Albertans who don't think that there has been a change at the federal level, which is why I think that the prime minister has a limited window here to demonstrate a true pivot.".The day after mostly Eastern voters returned the Liberals to power for a fourth term, Smith said, "As premier, I will not permit the status quo to continue."If the status quo does in fact continue, would she step in to lead the independence movement?"No. I would say that's a conversation for Albertans to lead and Albertans to have." The premier says it's her job to fight for Alberta's constitutional rights as a sovereign entity within Canada.Smith says she's confident she can succeed in righting Alberta's place in the federation. I'm markedly less optimistic. Generations of Westerners have fought the good fight and failed. It's difficult to see how success could be reached now, but it's Smith's job and mandate to try. In the meantime, the independence train is pulling out of the station. Fast.

FILDEBRANDT: Danielle Smith says Carney has a "limited window" as independence picks up steam

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