The most indomitable force in Canadian conservative politics came to sudden end last night. Jason Kenney has never lost anything before. Not even close..Not one of his seven elections as a federal MP, or their accompanying nominations. Not the PC leadership race. Not the Wildrose-PC merger war. Not the UCP leadership race. Not his by-election. Not the 2019 Alberta election that saw him crowned premier. In all of those contests, his opponents were lucky to get close enough to taste the dust from his heels. .Many of his supporters believed he would win his leadership review vote because, well, he always wins. It's a logical fallacy that could be made of the Roman Empire, until it couldn't. .Most pundits didn't really take notice that there was anything amiss in Toryland until roughly nine months ago, but the seeds of Kenney's undoing were planted much earlier. And those seeds were not simply libertarian and populist outrage at his lockdowns and mandatory mask and vaccine orders..Friends make the worst enemies.Soon after winning the UCP leadership, Kenney showed early signs loyalty was a one-way street for him. Those who would fight for him would be rewarded, only so long as they were useful at the moment. Over the first two years of his leadership, he made a growing list of enemies out of those who were recently friends. .Those dissidents were not sore-losers from the defeated Brian Jean camp, although the Jean team certainly kept the embers of their fight burning in belief that their man was cheated in 2017. Much of this would be manifest in Take Back Alberta, made up mostly of former Kenney allies. By the fall of 2021, those two camps would form an alliance that would eventually topple the premier. .Alberta is different — really different .Kenney is a political creature of Stephen Harper's federal Conservative Party. Despite the Alberta/Reform roots of some of that party, Alberta politics — and Alberta — are fundamentally different creatures..For most of its history, "the base" or the right flank of the Reform Party and federal Conservative Party have been social conservatives. Kenney was born of this part of the conservative coalition, and made himself its darling. But federal social conservatives are a remarkably easy group to pacify. With such low expectations, most social conservatives are willing to accept a policy of stalemate that can be surmised as "Don't make it any worse than it is now.".A little rhetorical respect and a few token policy wins at the margins are normally enough to keep them happy and voting, and often times donating and volunteering. .When Kenney returned to Alberta to forge and lead the UCP, he believed the Alberta conservative coalition was not fundamentally different than the national one. Maybe a few degrees to the right of it, but still configured much the same. .It's not. Kenney and I argued about this several times, and I clearly lost. .The Alberta conservative coalition contains the moderate urban and transactional political elements that defined the former federal and Alberta Progressive Conservative Parties, but the other side — the Wildrose side — was much more complex than a straightforward parallel with the Reform Party. .Like the Reform Party, the Wildrose contained social conservatives, but it was hardly the only large and passionate force in it. It contained autonomists (many of whom are now fully-fledged sovereigntists), and libertarians. .Kenney tapped into all of these groups in his unity campaign and subsequent elections as UCP leader and premier. .But as premier, he struck a significantly more centrist approach. He believed rhetoric and a few token policy actions were enough to appease these groups, as social conservatives are normally willing to accept at the federal level..A sheep in wolves' clothing .When the Wexit movement exploded in the days following the 2019 federal election that saw Justin Trudeau re-elected, Kenney recognized the discontent and struck up the Fair Deal Panel. It signalled under Kenney's leadership Alberta would launch a campaign to achieve maximum autonomy in Canada, short of independence much as Quebec did. But the report fell short, advocating some distance from Ottawa, but far short of expectations. .In the rest of Kenney's time as premier, he would only implement a few token items in it. He appointed an Alberta Chief Firearms Officer, which has the potential to do good, if they want to. And he called a referendum to remove Equalization from the constitution. .But from the beginning, Kenney undercut the leverage of this action by saying the vote wasn't really about abolishing equalization, but about obtaining leverage to tweak the formula. It left little negotiating leverage to be had with Ottawa when Albertans voted 62% to scrap it. .The Alberta Firsters in his party and voter base expected him to jump on a plane the next day to Ottawa and brow-beat Trudeau until he got them the "fair deal" he promised them. But he didn't. It was total and complete silence. Alberta held a referendum on equalization, and its government didn't lift a finger to do anything about it. .Kenney's inaction on this front in no small measure led to the rise on his right flank of the Wildrose Independence Party. .For many who had supported Kenney, they began to see him as a sheep in wolves clothing..COVID authoritarianism vs. the libertarians.COVID-19 was a disruptive policy force in Alberta, more so than anywhere else in Canada, by far. .Repeated lockdowns, police attacking kids for playing hockey, shuttering small businesses with brute force, arresting pastors, raiding churches that refused to close down, forced masking, and mandatory vaccines. Each of these actions by his government outraged libertarians and many social conservatives. They weren't just upset he broke his promise on some obscure policy like income tax bracket creep. His core supporters saw him as an authoritarian attacking their core liberties. ."I want a new base".When a rancher in central Alberta held an "illegal" rodeo to protest against Kenney's lockdowns, he told his caucus "If they are our base, I want a new base.".Kenney defended himself, arguing that these measures were lighter and shorter than in other provinces; but therein lays the fundamental problem with Kenney's leadership — Alberta is, at its core, different than other provinces. .Ontario conservatives — by-and-large — may have been upset with Doug Ford's COVID-19 crackdowns, but the Ontario conservative culture is, at its core, loyalist Toryism. It's British in character and values stability and competency as its chief virtues. .Alberta's conservative culture draws much of its inspiration from the American revolution, prizing liberty and restraint of government power as its chief virtues. .Kenney would likely have gotten away with his COVID-19 crackdown if he was the premier of any other province in Canada. But he wasn't. He was (and still technically is) the premier of Alberta. .Tokenism and rhetoric without substantive action may have pacified social conservatives with low expectations at the federal level for nearly two decades of his political career, but it was wholly unsuitable to the much more unruly political culture of Alberta. ."I'm not as bad as the NDP" was not a sufficient argument to save his leadership when he raised the hopes and expectations of his supporters to such high levels..Overconfidence.There were a few troublemakers in the party. When UCP MLA Todd Loewen publicly called for Kenney's resignation, the premier moved swiftly to have him removed from the caucus. While he was at it, he also sacked Drew Barnes, who had made increasingly public comments about supporting Alberta independence, or at least strict autonomy..The entire episode was live-blogged on the Western Standard, exposing every lurid detail of the confidential meeting. Kenney may have believed the dissidents were gone, but the next day leaks from his caucus — and his own office — to the Western Standard kept coming. His purge failed to remove but a few of the dissidents in his ranks, and allowed for the two rebel MLAs to speak more freely than ever. .When the UCP met for its annual general meeting in November of 2021, a small group of dissidents put their names forward for election to the party's executive. Kenney's easy victory over them gave him and his team a belief the rebels were paper tigers. They had lots of talk and increasingly got some press beyond the Western Standard, but they were just a few Brian Jean sore-losers and crackpot conspiracy theorists that couldn't mount a serious political threat, so went the reasoning..Little did Kenney know the executive election at that AGM was not a coordinated effort, and had next to no organization put into it. Their belief it was a pitched battle gave them a massive sense of overconfidence that would prove fatal when the real fight came..When enough rebel constituency associations succeeded in forcing a leadership review vote, Kenney's loyalist executive decided upon an in-person vote in Red Deer. They believed his legendary reputation as a political organizer would give him a major advantage in having delegates signed up, paid, registered, and transported to-and-from the polling station. .“The lunatics are trying to take over the asylum." .Unbeknownst to Kenney and his team, Take Back Alberta — his former friends — were prepared and equipped to fight him on his own tuft. Their town halls — often several in a single evening — popped up like gofers in different cities, small towns, villages, and even barns in every corner of Alberta. .Kenney shrugged this off, claiming he had the support of "broad mainstream conservatives" and that "some are angry with a government that promoted safe and effective vaccines." .It was a wild missing of the mark. A great many mainstream conservatives were turning on Kenney, and most of those angry at him were not vexed at his support for vaccines. They were miffed at him for forcing vaccines on them against their personal choices, and a great many other authoritarian COVID policies. .The annoyance at government COVID-19 policies had already caught fire and sparked the Freedom Convoy, led mostly by Albertans. Soon after its arrival in Ottawa, Erin O'Toole was toppled as federal Conservative leader. The premier's office in Edmonton eyed this development uneasily. .It was not until about a week before the membership cut-off for the Red Deer vote that the Kenney camp appeared to take any notice the threat against them was real. .In a leaked audio recording of Kenney speaking to his staff, he labeled his opponents "lunatics" and right-wing "extremists". .“The lunatics are trying to take over the asylum." .He told a group of visible and religious minorities in northeast Calgary that his opponents are fuelled by "racism, hatred, and intolerance.".To a great many, it smacked of Hillary Clinton's "basket of deplorables," and Justin Trudeau's "fringe minority" with "unacceptable views.".It was a stunning tactic for the man who hailed himself as the great uniter of conservatives to label those opposing his continued leadership as unfit for participation in party democracy. Kenney's argument that he was the only man who could keep the United Conservative Party united began to appear increasingly out of step with his own words. .In the background to all of this, nominations for Kenney-allied MLAs began to open. Unexpectedly — for them at least — serious challengers emerged running on anti-Kenney platforms, selling huge numbers of memberships. Unsurprising, the party brass disqualified these challengers against Jason Nixon and Joseph Schow on the flimsiest of grounds. While this may have protected Kenney allies against losing their nominations, it swelled the party ranks with even more angry members looking to settle a score with the premier. .Overtime.As the membership cut-off approached, 15,000 people registered to vote in Red Deer. From the data I was provided, the result would not have been even close. The premier would have struggled to break above 30%. .The in-person vote was designed to play to Kenney's strength as an organizer, but it's real effect was to advantage the side with the most motivation. You can guess which side that was. .So his executive voted to scrap the in-person vote altogether, and moved to a mail-in vote. While some accommodation needed to be made for the unprecedented number of voters, they changed the rules of the game entirely. .They gave Kenney an entire extra month in which to campaign, and to put some distance between the vote and the stench of his unpopular COVID policies. .The Kenney campaign was wracked by allegations of misdeeds, common among them the bulk-buying of memberships in ethnic communities on single credit cards..D-Day.When we began our live broadcast of the leadership review vote last night, the party promised that the results would be released some time between 4 p.m. and 6 p.m. MST. I predicted if the results came early, it would have been good news for the premier, but a later result would be an omen of doom. .The results came very late, at 6:40 pm, and for what seems like good reason. At 51% of the vote — even after favourably rewriting the rules — it was clearly impossible for Kenney to lead the party forward. No leader of any party in Canada has been able to successfully continue leading a party with at least 70% at a minimum. .Kenney had given every indication that he would attempt to hang onto power with even the narrowest margin of victory, consequences to the unity of the United Conservative Party be damned. And make no mistake, it certainly would have meant the end of a united conservative party in Alberta. .Much to my surprise, he resigned. He was humble, and even graceful in a very difficult moment. .Moving on.Well, he sort of resigned. .As Don Braid of the Calgary Herald writes in his column, Kenney intends to stay on as a caretaker leader and premier until his successor is elected. Even running to succeed himself isn't off the table, however staff close to him tell me it is unlikely. .Kenney is without a doubt the most internally divisive leader any of Alberta's conservative parties have ever had. His desire to stick around a while longer is probably motivated by a desire to do a few last popular things to try and build some kind of positive legacy for posterity. .But it would be at odds with the desire of the party to move on and Kenney's stated goal of putting the past behind them..The two as-yet front runners for Kenney's successor — Brian Jean and Danielle Smith — are both openly anti-Kenney. There's a good chance they will run against the record of the sitting premier, and it could prove a bit awkward with him hanging around the place like a guest who's stayed too long after everyone else left the party. For the good of the party, Kenney should allow his caucus to select an interim leader and premier to mind the furniture until a full-time replacement is elected. .And for God's sake, pause the phony nomination races until the new leader is elected. .David versus Goliath .Kenney never lost; until he did. He was very likely the most celebrated force of political nature in Canada; a man who has never been stopped. Nobody could beat him. But he's beat. .In all his many battles against federal Liberals, Brian Jean, and merger-refuseniks, he crushed them all. It was only against his former supporters who once believed he was their champion did he finally break. .Now Kenney joins the ranks of the three PC premier that preceded him: a single, incomplete term. Not since Ralph Klein nearly 20 years ago has a conservative premier even been given the opportunity to stand for re-election. Since then, Ed Stelmach, Alison Redford, and Jim Prentice have only had a single kick at the can. As Kenney used to say of Rachel Notley, "one and done.".It's entirely possible (and I think increasingly likely) Alberta's conservatives are ungovernable as a single, monolithic party, and Jason Kenney is only the latest to fail at this unenviable task.
