Column updated at 4:05 pm MST with comments from Alberta Premier Danielle Smith.Nate Horner is said to be on his way out as Alberta Finance Minister, so I'm told by several senior sources in the UCP.Replacing him is (so they tell me) Jason Nixon, who currently hangs his hat as minister of assisted living and social services. But first, a little hedging and ass covering. None of this can be taken as gospel. This isn't a planned leak by the government. On the contrary, government officials were less than thrilled when I called to confirm the story. And they mostly denied it, best I can tell. My sources are strictly unnamed on background to protect their identities, as they are not authorized to speak for the government. They are reliable sources, but they can't be taken to the bank. And things can change, as this column will likely change any plans that might currently be in place. This is all an ass-covering way of saying that this cannot be taken to the bank, but if you were placing bets on Polymarket, it's probably a good roll of the dice. It's also worth noting that after publishing (the original version of this) column, Western Standard Reporter Will Vasseur asked Premier Danielle Smith about the matter. She deked the question and said that if any changes are made, it will be announced in a press release. But she certainly didn't deny it. Back to the substance of my column. Finance is unofficially the second most senior post in any Canadian government, so it's a major shakeup. That means a cabinet shuffle of some magnitude is in the offing. Horner has had the job since being appointed by Premier Smith in June 2023. He hasn't rocked the boat, but oversaw a strong $8.3 billion surplus for the 2024-25 fiscal year. His Budget 2025 projected a $5.2 billion deficit for 2025-26. His 2026 budget projects a big fiscal hole of $9.4 billion for 2026-27, although that will likely come down with the spiked world oil prices..His office declined any comment when the Western Standard reached out.Nixon's promotion to ride shotgun in Smith's coach is an interesting one. He has no financial or business background — as is traditional for finance ministers — but he is considered a strong political warhorse. First elected in 2015, he beat out incumbent MLA Joe Anglin for the Wildrose nomination in Rimbey–Rocky Mountain House–Sundre. He first served as Brian Jean's opposition house leader, a position focused more on the cut-and-thrust of parliamentary politics than on traditional ministerial policy portfolios. He fell out with Brian Jean when, in the United Conservative Party's first leadership race, he unexpectedly backed Jason Kenney. After the UCP's 2019 victory, Kenney made him his minister of environment and parks.Nixon found himself in controversy when, in June 2021, he was surreptitiously photographed alongside Jason Kenney and other ministers having dinner or drinks atop a rooftop patio during COVID-19 restrictions.As Kenney's leadership came under threat of a grassroots revolt, Nixon's own nomination was targeted as a proxy for the premier. The party controversially disqualified challenger Tim Hoven from running against Nixon, effectively ending the race without a vote. During the leadership race to replace Kenney, he was elevated to the finance portfolio as Travis Toews ran for the top job. It was a temporary summer gig, with little in the way of news made on that front, but he did rustle some feathers when he openly criticized then-leadership candidate Danielle Smith's Sovereignty Act while he was finance minister..“Telling Albertans that you can accomplish something that you can't accomplish is very problematic long term for our party,” Nixon said of the act. "I would caution anybody who wants to lead our party about overpromising things that we know that cannot be delivered.”And, “I would be surprised if a bill as described would pass inside the legislature.”In Nixon's defence, the Sovereignty Act presented to and passed by the legislature was a much toned-down version of what Smith had put forward during the leadership race. But it was breaking an unwritten rule of leadership races that cabinet ministers would not directly insert themselves into the back-and-forth politics of the contest.Nixon was excluded from the cabinet when Smith won the UCP leadership in 2022, along with several other ministers seen as part of Kenney's inner circle.At the time, Smith said, “There are a number of cabinet ministers who are seen to really be the hand of the former premier on a lot of files that caused our party a lot of problems.”When asked by Western Standard why they and Nixon were shuffled out, Smith said some ministers still need to resolve issues in their own ridings.But, she added, “If people are out, they’re not out forever.”That fig leaf was evidently genuine.After the UCP victory in the May 2023 election, Smith made good on her peace offering and returned Nixon to cabinet in the relatively junior post of minister of assisted living and social services. To my surprise, I've not heard any word of bad blood between Nixon and his one-time boss, Brian Jean. Smith must be happy with Nixon's performance so far to consider him for a promotion to the big finance post. Ass-covering again, several UCP officials denied that this is planned right now. The Western Standard does not report on rumours, but at this point, I'm getting conflicting reports from different people within the same government. So it's enough to pass on to you, dear reader. It's just not enough to bet the farm on.
