EDMONTON — Calgary-Shaw residents will elect their new MLA on Monday, but with roughly one year remaining before the next provincial election, the race has grown beyond the electoral district and drawn attention from across Alberta. Monday’s byelection will not cost the UCP and Premier Danielle Smith their majority government, but after former MLA Rebecca Schulz announced her intention to resign, political pundits quickly dubbed the byelection a chance for parties to gauge their standing. Human Resources executive Mike Derry is seeking to retain the seat for the UCP, facing four opponents, including insurance worker Kyle Campbell of the Alberta NDP and Progressive Tory candidate Kyle Joseph. .Schulz won Calgary-Shaw with 56.3% of the vote in the 2023 provincial election, marking 10 of 11 elections in which the riding has elected a conservative candidate. The lone non-conservative winner came in 2015, when the Alberta NDP candidate won with 31.3% of the vote after the two conservatives got 30.7% and 30.4%. Questions have arisen in recent months, however, about whether Albertans on both sides of the political spectrum are growing frustrated with Smith and the UCP.Smith's approval rating sank to a tenure low at 39% in June, according to respondents to an Angus Reid Institute poll. However, the approval rating rebounded to 46% in July, consistent with her tenure average. .The usual topics of health care, education and immigration have lingered throughout the byelection, but Alberta's upcoming referendum and the independence movement could have the greatest influence. Polls suggest a majority of Albertans want to remain in Canada; however, that number narrows and even flips among UCP supporters. Derry has said he supports Alberta remaining in Canada. Regardless, the Alberta NDP have hammered the topic and said he might not support independence, but the individuals backing him do.Though Smith has said she supports Alberta remaining in Canada, she said the debate can no longer be delayed and that an independence referendum is needed because over 700,000 Albertans signed a petition calling for one. Her approach has not satisfied many Albertans, as a June Ipsos poll found that 58% of respondents disapprove of how Smith has handled the Alberta independence movement and the subsequent referendum. That figure jumped to 64% within Calgary..Calgary-Shaw's byelection results will serve as a partial indicator of whether frustration with the Alberta independence referendum and other policy issues has eroded the UCP's position in a riding it has traditionally controlled, or whether that concern is overblown. The by-election will also let the Progressive Tory Party and their candidate, Joseph, see whether their rebrand under new leader Peter Guthrie has translated into more support. The former Alberta Party did not run a candidate in Calgary-Shaw in the 2023 election, and they received 0.7% of the vote across Alberta. Since taking over as party leader in December after being axed from the UCP caucus, Guthrie has said the party is the only conservative option in Alberta, claiming the UCP has forgone traditional conservative values. He told the Western Standard in August that their goal is to provide a safe haven for progressive conservative voters who no longer feel that the UCP represents them. .If the Progressive Tory party becomes a significant player, the next question is whether it takes supporters from the UCP or NDP. Subtracting from the NDP would make it increasingly difficult for them to win the number of seats needed to dethrone the UCP. Conversely, individuals have said subtracting from the UCP could create a climate similar to the 2015 election, where conservative voters were split enough for the NDP to form government. Calgary-Shaw's byelection will give Albertans a glimpse of whether the Progressive Tory party has grown enough to affect Alberta’s political landscape, or whether those concerns have been overstated. However, regardless of how the results play out, the byelection will likely prompt Alberta's political leaders to recalibrate their strategies as they prepare to ramp up campaign messaging ahead of the 2027 election.
