EDMONTON — Alberta independence leader Mitch Sylvestre says that, though the Alberta Prosperity Project forecasts a more prosperous Alberta nation, the independent financial estimates report commissioned by the UCP government is better than expected. "Actually, this report is quite a bit better than I thought it would be, to tell you the honest to good truth," said Sylvestre during an interview with the Western Standard on Wednesday. "I'm actually not disappointed with it, and I find it's quite a bit more realistic than the number that the premier put out there." .The UCP-appointed advisory panel released its report on Wednesday, based on an independent analysis by the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy, outlining the estimated economic and fiscal effects of an independent Alberta. Premier Danielle Smith suggested in June that an independent Alberta's start-up costs could be $400 billion.The analysis, which produced two estimates based on a "smooth" and "difficult" exit from Canada, estimated the initial price tag of an independent Alberta at between $50 billion and $170 billion. Including start-up costs and establishing Alberta's share of Canada's debt, the analysis estimates that Alberta's debt after five years would sit between $324 billion and $442 billion. With an annual average deficit between $2 billion and $25.7 billion. The longterm projects paint a different picture, however, as it estimates that after 20 years, Alberta's annual finances could sit between a $7.8 billion surplus and a $31.3 billion deficit. ."I thought that the numbers were quite a bit less than what the premier said they were going to be; I found that was interesting," Sylvestre said. "The other thing is that there's a smooth and basically a rough scenario on what would happen on the transfer of that, and I think the smooth scenario is much more aligned with what we thought it was going to be." The APP released their own financial estimates for an Alberta independence in 2025, and it suggested that Alberta could have between a $23.6 billion and $45.5 billion annual surplus after initial startup costs. Sylvestre said these and other estimates are models and depend on many factors and input values. However, overall, the estimates are positive because they spark conversation and educate Albertans about what an independent Alberta could look like. "I'm thinking that this is going to give Albertans the idea that the sky is not falling, and that's according to a report written by the government," Sylvestre said. "The sky will not fall, and as a consequence of this report, I think that people can understand that there is actually a real good chance that Alberta will be better off, which is exactly our position.".Sylvestre's APP colleague, Jeffrey Rath, has a different view of Wednesday's report. "Obviously, the million and a half tax dollars that Danielle Smith gave to her fellow travellers at the University of Calgary to write a phony report based on phony assumptions, you know, we'll see if it sure ends up being money well spent," said Rath during an interview with the Western Standard. The report states that an independent Alberta would take on $158.3 billion of Canada's debt, and Rath said no constitutional or legal requirement forces it to do so. "Why is there no talk about the federal government assuming the entirety of Alberta's debt?” Rath said. "The only because the only reason we have this debt is because of equalization.”"We're having to borrow money to provide social services in Alberta because the federal government is siphoning money out of Alberta to give it to Quebec, and the Maritimes, and now Ontario and Manitoba." .Rath also claims the analysis fails to factor in Alberta's ability to increase oil and gas production by abandoning current federal regulations and gaining more access to Asia via the US West Coast. The analysis does apply these factors in its "smooth" approach. This estimate still projects a short-term $2 billion annual deficit, which improves to $7.8 billion after 20 years. "This stupid report says, 'Oh, one of the big downsides of Alberta independence is that there won't be anybody from the rest of Canada coming to Alberta to fill jobs when Alberta's booming and they need extra employment,'" Rath said. "It's almost like the idiots that wrote that report have never heard of Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, or any places in the States where we could easily import additional workers. We don't need to bring people in from Newfoundland."The report estimates that after 20 years, employment could be nearly 0.7% higher and Alberta's economy more than 3.4% larger than it would have been had the province remained in Canada.Additionally, average annual wages could initially decrease by $1,200, but in the long term they could grow by $1,800 per year. In this scenario, Alberta's economy could shrink 2.2% in the short term, but rise 3.4% after 20 years. .Positive projections rely upon a smooth exit from Canada, and the estimates plummet if the transition is "difficult." Rath claims Alberta "picking up and leaving" could be "the best thing that could happen." Conversely, Sylvestre said Alberta has seen how negotiations with Ottawa typically go, but the two sides would eventually reach a smooth exit. Mainly because Canada will struggle without Alberta's money, and BC needs access to export their products through Alberta. "I think everybody is going to have a lot to gain and lose, and as a consequence to that, I think that the adults in the room should be able to come to a consensus on what's going to happen," Sylvestre said.
