Nationalist leader says independence is the best protection for Alberta oil during trade war

EDMONTON — Leading Alberta independence advocate Keith Wilson says voting for Alberta to hold a future binding referendum is the best way to protect Alberta's oil industry from being weaponized in Canada's trade war with the U.S. "If Albertans reject Option 2 and the threat of an independence referendum disappears, I believe Carney will have far more political room to put Alberta oil on the table," wrote Wilson in an X post on Tuesday. "If Option 2 succeeds, Ottawa has a very different problem. Suddenly, using Alberta’s economy as a bargaining chip risks pouring gasoline on an independence movement that has already demonstrated it can win at the ballot box." .Leaders across Canada have advocated for Prime Minister Mark Carney to impose an export tax on Alberta oil entering the U.S., claiming it is one of the most effective ways to put pressure on U.S. President Donald Trump in response to his 50% tariff on select Canadian goods. The issue, however, is that Alberta's economy has been largely sheltered from Trump's latest tariffs, which decreases the Albertans' desire to risk their oil industry in negotiations, including Premier Danielle Smith, who has vehemently opposed cutting the supply going to the U.S. Carney has also been reluctant to embrace the tactic, claiming that Canada must remain a reliable trading partner. The Alberta independence movement also looms over the trade war, and though Carney claims it has not factored into his decisions, Wilson and commentators argue otherwise. Wilson said dampening the independence movement by voting in October to remain in Canada will ease the pressure, helping to prevent Carney from risking the heartbeat of Alberta's economy, especially given Trump's added tariffs talking affect in January. "You do not have to support Alberta independence today to understand the value of leverage," Wilson wrote. "If you simply want a better deal for Alberta and do not want Ottawa sacrificing our economy to protect its political base in Central Canada, keeping the threat of independence alive forces Ottawa to think twice." .Political analysts have also urged Smith to delay the Alberta independence referendum in light of the trade war, arguing that it signals Canadian weakness and heightens the risk of U.S. meddling in the process. Wilson rejected the risk of U.S. interference, arguing that Trump inserting himself into the Alberta independence debate will only unite Canada, increasing the anti-American sentiment that was instrumental in Carney winning the last federal election. "It creates an external enemy, fuels a sense of Canadian nationalism, gives them someone else to blame for economic weakness and provides political cover for massive new government spending," Wilson wrote. "Trump does not need to say anything about Alberta. The trade war itself creates the pressure."

Nationalist leader says independence is the best protection for Alberta oil during trade war

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