EDMONTON — Leading Alberta independence advocate Keith Wilson says the risk of Alberta oil being used as ammunition in Canada's trade war with the U.S. shows why Alberta must leave Canada. "The instinctive reaction from Premier Ford in Ontario, Wab Kinew in Manitoba, and other premiers, and the federal government in Ottawa, when Canada is in trouble, when Canada has a challenge with its largest market, its largest trading partner, and wants to get into a fight and looks for its biggest, most powerful weapon," said Wilson in a video on Wednesday. "And what does it go to? It goes to the Alberta economy." .Alberta's 2026-27 fiscal update, released on Thursday, flipped an initially estimated $9.4 billion deficit into a now-forecasted $2 billion surplus, and the $11.4 billion swing was driven primarily by higher oil prices. Over 26% of Alberta's projected revenue in the 2026-27 fiscal year is expected to come from natural resources, and Wilson said an oil export tax would result in the loss of 100,000 jobs and the disappearance of Alberta's main revenue stream. Provincial premiers have called for Alberta's oil to be used in negotiations; however, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has vehemently shut down the option. The issue is that Prime Minister Mark Carney can impose an export tax on oil regardless of Smith's consent, and Wilson said that this reality reveals one of the flaws in the confederation. "Alberta would suffer tremendously if that were to be imposed to give leverage to help Ontario, Quebec," Wilson said. “All of this just underscores to me that Canada is not properly structured.""That Canada and the role and relationships of the provinces to Ottawa doesn't make sense anymore. It made sense when Alberta was starting out in 1905 and in 1930, where we needed the federal government. That's not the case anymore.".Wilson believes independence is necessary to stop Ontario and Quebec from effectively controlling what happens in Alberta. However, perhaps more crucial is Albertans keeping their own leverage, preventing the federal government from throwing Alberta's economy into a trade war with an opponent that has left it relatively untouched. "Let's say Carney holds his fire until after October 19th and doesn't impose this export tax," Wilson said. "He lays in the woods because he's worried that would fuel our side, and that would fuel the vote for option two on independence, but then, if it's a strong vote for option one, why wouldn't he immediately just go ahead and sacrifice our economy and our jobs?""Because we've said we're not going to stand up for ourselves. We've said you can push us over and we're okay with it. We're okay with more of the same. We're okay with the status quo."
