New poll showcases little support for Alberta independence, highlights Smith's unenviable position

EDMONTON – Albertans still show limited support for Alberta independence, according to a new Angus Reid Institute survey, which also highlights an internal struggle among UCP supporters. The ARI online survey of 979 Albertans found that 65% would vote to keep Alberta in Canada if an independence vote were held at the time of polling, Feb. 2 to 6, compared to 29% who would vote to leave. These figures align with many pollster surveys released in 2026, with the level of independence support among respondents typically around 30%, though it has ranged from 18% to 41%.Further underscoring the ARI respondents' limited appetite for Alberta independence, 8% said they would "definitely" vote to leave Canada, compared with 57% who would "definitely" vote to stay. .Premier Danielle Smith has maintained a position on Alberta independence: she favours a "sovereign Alberta within a united Canada." At the same time, she has opened the door and refused to block a vote on Alberta independence."She uses this word salad, 'A sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.' What the hell does that mean?" said Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi on Feb. 3.For months, the Alberta NDP has called on Smith and the UCP MLAs to clarify their position on independence, but they have refused to take the bait, likely because doing so would alienate nearly half of their voters, whichever way they support.The UCP's hesitation is potentially justified, as the ARI survey showed a clear divide among UCP supporters. It showed that although 57% of respondents would vote for Alberta to leave, a non-insignificant number would support Alberta remaining in Canada. .Smith's approach appears to have satisfied UCP supporters, as the ARI survey found that 67% approved of how she has handled the debate thus far. Province-wide, however, 37% have approved of how she has handled it. Conversely, the survey found that Prime Minister Mark Carney had the highest approval rating among respondents at 44%. While Nenshi had 40% approval. .As for why Alberta should, or shouldn't, leave Canada, support for the primary reasons the province should remain was consistent with how respondents would vote in a referendum. However, a discrepancy was observed in the number of individuals who would lean towards voting for Alberta to remain in Canada, despite supporting many of the pro-independence arguments. Including 88% of respondents agreeing with the pro-independence argument that "Alberta gives more to Canada than it gets from being a part of it." The ARI survey also addressed the idea of Alberta joining the United States, which has regained momentum following reports that leaders of the Alberta independence movement have met with U.S. State Department officials and received verbal support for the movement. According to the ARI survey, 68% of respondents believed that Alberta becoming a U.S. state would be a bad thing, while 17% believed it would be good.