EDMONTON — Support for Alberta independence is decreasing, according to a new poll released on Friday, with 23% of respondents saying they intend to vote for option two on referendum day. A Janet Brown Opinion Research poll commissioned by CBC found that, among 1,200 Albertans contacted between Sept. 8 and 21, 72% intend to vote to remain in Canada, while 23% want the government to pursue a binding independence referendum. The survey was conducted over the phone, 70% mobile and 30% landline, and its sample is balanced between 400 respondents in each of Calgary, Edmonton, and the rest of Alberta. It reports a +/- 2.8% margin of error 19 out of 20 times. These results reflect a dip in support for Alberta independence compared with similar polling by Janet Brown for CBC in April, when 27% of respondents said they would vote for independence and 67% would like to remain in Canada. Alberta independence continues to have the greatest support outside of Alberta's major cities, with 27% of respondents saying they want a future binding referendum, compared to 22% in Edmonton and 21% in Calgary. Support for Alberta independence was lowest among respondents aged 65+ (16%) and 18–24 (18%). Those aged 45–65 were most likely to support option two (28%). .The UCP government-commissioned study on the economic and fiscal implications of Alberta independence was released during the survey collection period. The University of Calgary's School of Public Policy's report estimates that establishing a new country could cost between $50 billion and $170 billion during the first five years, separate from potential effects on economic growth and the provincial government's finances.It estimates that, if the exit is smooth, Alberta's debt would increase to between $209 billion and $324 billion after taking on Alberta's share of Canada's debt. Conversely, the difficult scenario estimates that Alberta's debt would rise to $442 billion, and an average annual deficit between $31 billion and $26 billion. The Alberta Transition Council, co-led by Alberta independence supporters Keith Wilson and Dennis Kalma, released their own cost estimates on Wednesday, placing the initial price tag at $4.9 billion, with a potential annual surplus between $22 billion and $32 billion. .Many nationalist supporters have shifted their campaign messaging in recent weeks, telling Albertans this is not a vote on leaving Canada, but a chance to give Premier Danielle Smith leverage to negotiate a better deal for Alberta within the confederation. Smith claims voting for option two on the Alberta independence referendum question is not the best way to give her leverage. “I keep telling them the best way to express it is to give me a mandate on those other nine questions," said Smith on Tuesday. "The same goes for leverage. I keep hearing that they think a high vote for independence will give me leverage, but I say I think we have better leverage by saying that we want to work on these nine things together.”.Federalist supporters in recent weeks have increased their push to get Albertans to turnout and vote in the referendum. Many believe low voter turnout would favour option two, because nearly every Alberta independence supporter will almost certainly vote in the referendum. Forever Canadian leader Thomas Lukaszuk, who has already been campaigning for Alberta to remain in Canada, officially announced his intention to "begin" advocating for Albertans to show up and vote for option one in the referendum. He previously said he was campaigning for "unity."
