And then there were two — or will be, if rumours on the imminent demise of the world’s original petroleum cabal hold true.
That’s because Big Oil may be poised for yet another seismic realignment as Shell quietly considers a historic takeover of its longtime British rival BP, potentially rewriting the rules of a global industry still dominated by the legacy of the Seven Sisters.
The Seven Sisters, as they were colloquially known before being entrusted with the moniker of ‘supermajor’, were comprised of the remnants of J.D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil trust along with Shell and the Anglo-Persian Oil Company (now BP) that controlled the world oil market for most of the 20th Century.
But successive retrenchments and the global financial crisis have seen that number steady dwindle to just three. Now, it appears set to fall to just two.
Shares of BP surged nearly 2.7% on Monday despite a London market holiday, buoyed by reports from Bloomberg that Shell is working with advisers to assess the mechanics of a possible acquisition.
With Brent crude now hovering near $61 per barrel and WTI dipping even lower, analysts said the low-price environment is fertile ground for well-capitalized supermajors like Shell to absorb weaker peers.
The deal, if it goes ahead, would be among the largest in oil industry history potentially worth £60 billion — CAD$110 billion — and could signal the start of a new era of consolidation amid falling crude prices and mounting pressure on the so-called ‘energy transition’.
BP has struggled to maintain its footing even as rivals Shell and Exxon-Mobil have pivoted back to conventional fossil fuels.
Its ill-fated net-zero pivot under former CEO Bernard Looney — who was forced to step aside in 2023 amid a sex scandal — alienated investors and left the company exposed just as rivals doubled down on traditional hydrocarbons.
In stark contrast, Shell has leaned into oil and gas under CEO Wael Sawan, who has prioritized share buybacks and disciplined spending, drawing both praise and criticism from investors and environmentalists alike.
New BP boss Murray Auchincloss, a veteran of Amoco Canada (itself a former Sister before BP absorbed it in 1998), has tried to reverse course with a renewed focus on oil and vowing asset sales.
But the market remains unconvinced. BP’s shares have plunged more than 30% over the past year, prompting activist investors to demand bold action.
But analysts said BP’s woes are long-standing stemming from years of poor management.
Still reeling from the Deepwater Horizon disaster of 2010 — which cost the company an estimated USD$65 billion in environmental payouts — BP has also seen its Russia ambitions unravel following its exit from Rosneft and other ventures after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
If Shell proceeds, the merger would not only consolidate key assets in the Gulf of Mexico, Australia’s North West Shelf, and Azerbaijan, but also fundamentally reshape the British and American energy sectors.
Analysts said it could be waiting for oil prices to weaken further before pulling the trigger on a bid.
Although both companies have largely shed their Canadian conventional and heavy oil assets, Shell remains the lead player in the massive LNG Canada project at Kitimat, which is expected to begin operation later this year.
Although BP has declined to comment on the takeover speculation, Shell’s Sawan didn’t rule it out in an interview with The Financial Times.
If Shell succeeds in taking over BP, it would mark not just a merger of two storied British firms, but a moment of reckoning for an industry wrestling with its future.
The Seven Sisters, once symbols of dominance — and even conspiracy — are being reshaped by a new calculus: market discipline, geopolitical risk, and the slow, grinding uncertainty of an energy transition in flux.
Before the 1973 oil crisis, those seven supermajors controlled about 85% of the world’s production and reserves.
As Shell and BP weigh their options, the next chapter in the oil world order may be written not in Riyadh, Washington, or Brussels — but in the boardrooms of London.
