Alberta has an ally in its fight against Ottawa’s proposed ‘clean’ electricity regulations: Ontario. .That’s because phasing out clean Alberta natural gas from Ontario’s power grid would cost the average household about $3,300 per year by 2030 in higher electricity costs, according to a new report from Toronto-based policy think tank LFX Associates..In addition to a 60% jump in residential power bills, eliminating natural gas would cause a 3% to 3.6% drop in GDP at a cost of up to 25,000 jobs with no discernible impact on greenhouse gas emissions, according to Ross McKitrick, a professor of economics at the University of Guelph..“Eliminating natural gas from the grid would yield no measurable benefits on Ontario’s air quality or the global climate,” he wrote. .Air pollution from Ontario’s electricity sector already fell by 98% between 1991 and 2020 and contributes just under 0.008% of total global GHG emissions.. Ontario electricity emissionsOntario’s electricity sector emissions are down 98% from 2000 levels. .Even though gas only supplies about 10% of Ontario’s grid-connected power supply — unlike Alberta where it’s closer to 80% — removing it would vastly increase the risk of blackouts and brownouts during peak periods of demand and force the province to rely on equally unreliable imports from Quebec..By contrast, almost all the natural gas used in Ontario is shipped down the TC Energy mainline that hooks into Alberta's NOVA system..“Even if there were great environmental benefits to be expected from removing gas-fired generation from the supply mix… it would simply not be feasible if Ontario is to maintain a reliable electricity system,” he added.. Ontario power sourcesOntario power sources .“Thus when we ask what it would ‘cost’ to phase out natural gas, we must bear in mind that the answer is not simply a dollar amount, but it is also a set of implications for the reliability of the power grid.”.Numbers used in the study were culled from Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO). Alberta’s own Alberta Electricity System Operator (AESO) on Thursday will detail its own findings on the implications resulting from the proposed federal clean electricity regulations..Dan McTeague, president of Canadians for Affordable Energy and a former Ontario Liberal MP, called it “foolish” and “shortsighted” virtue signalling..“We’ve seen the baseless push from the green movement to eliminate natural gas from the grid and, as this report confirms, it is sheer madness,” he said..“Ontario has one of the cleanest grids in the world. Natural gas in Ontario contributes less than a rounding error in global GHGs. Phasing out natural gas is virtue signaling which will only lead to less affordable energy in Ontario with zero net environmental benefits.” McTeague added..In addition to higher costs and lost jobs, the change would also result in lower government surpluses and possibly push it into deficit after 2030..That’s not stopping local politicians across the country from moving ahead with plans to ‘decarbonize’ the electricity system..In Ontario, 34 municipalities have passed resolutions requesting the government phase-out natural gas plants. After December 31 it will be illegal to replace existing furnaces with any sort of heating system powered by fossil fuels in Quebec. .And in Nanaimo, BC new homes won't be allowed to have natural gas as a primary heat source as of July 1, 2024..“Governments across Canada should heed the warnings laid out in this report,” McTeague added. “Canada’s grid is as reliable and affordable as it is because of fossil fuels. This push to remove natural gas from the grid is foolish and shortsighted.”
