POLCZER: Smith transforms into Alberta’s Blue-Eyed Sheikh

HOUSTON — You see all kinds at an international oil show — sultans, princes and rogues in bespoke suits. With egos to match.

But one person has been making her mark among the oil Illuminati with steely-eyed determination and a quiet sense of purpose.

And yes, those really are baby blues.

Since she got here in Texas on Monday, Premier Danielle Smith has carved out a niche both for Alberta and all of Canada at a venue where federal officials are conspicuous by their absence.

Not that they’d want to be here; the theme du jour is “realism” on both sides of the equation. And Canada’s federal government is living in fantasyland both politically and economically. But that’s another story.

The real story is the Dynamo of the North.

Far from the AHS scandal back home, the CERAWeek by S&P Global energy conference has been Smith’s chance to shine.

She’ll be giving a stand-up appearance on the main stage today, but she’s been busy working the back rooms and hustling and driving hard bargains with all the deft skill of a petro-baroness — one with 4.5 million barrels a day to play with.

Make no mistake, it hasn’t been easy. The shadow of US president Donald Trump looms large over the proceedings. Even if he doesn’t actually make an appearance, his presence is felt in every room.

Even the energy minister of Guyana — who also happens to be the commander of the armed forces — knows tariffs are coming. And with it a profound shakeup in global world oil order.

Smith has been on top of it all. A deal to supply LNG to Japan — to the chagrin of soon-to-be-deposed Environment Minister Steven — is just one example.

But more importantly, the move to take control of Alberta’s royalty barrels is a masterstroke, albeit one that few back home probably fully understand.

Put up your hand if you knew that Alberta is paid its oil royalties in kind, with actual oil. The Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission was set up in the Lougheed era when he put the squeeze to oil companies to sell those barrels back to oil companies.

Until now it‘a acted largely as a middleman, collecting cheques from third parties — usually connected to refineries — that actually sold the oil or sent it down the pipe.

But by taking direct control of those barrels, Smith can now sway those flows wherever she sees fit, in any direction.

That includes bypassing US refineries altogether and putting it on boats through the Gulf of Trump — or whatever the hell he wants to call it.

Truth be told, that does a lot more damage than a tariff ever will, forcing The Donald to replace those cheaper Canadian barrels with his own premium ones. 

That will cost refiners at least another 10%-15% — whatever the differential happens to be that day, and there's not a damn thing he can do about it.

Alberta government officials told The Western Standard this is precisely the scenario he hoped to avoid by putting a 10% tariff on Canadian oil instead of 25%.

Make no mistake, Smith is wading into the market on a scale Lougheed could have only dreamed. He didn’t have 5 million bpd to put on the table. But if he did, he'd surely do the same.

It still doesn’t solve the problem of intra-Canadian pipelines to the North, east and west, but Trump is scared of that too. Or ought to be. 

Because when that day comes — and after all his MAGA bluster it surely will — Alberta, and Canada will be in full control of its resource destiny.

No thanks to Ottawa. 

The term ‘sheikh’ is actually a somewhat derogatory term reserved for a ‘silly old man’. The feminine form is ‘shaykhah’ which denotes a woman of respect and power.

Alberta has one. With blue eyes.