The Alberta NDP remains 14 points behind the United Conservative Party after leader Naheed Nenshi’s landslide win in the leadership race, according to a poll conducted by Abacus Data. CBC News Calgary reported Thursday the results were similar to the last poll Abacus Data published in March. Abacus Data said 54% of committed voters would vote for the Alberta UCP if an election was held now. It added 40% of committed voters would choose the NDP, and 6% would vote for another party. Since the March poll, the UCP is down one point and the NDP remains unchanged. “Despite Nenshi's landslide victory, he finds himself still well behind and clearly lots of work to do if he hopes to be the premier in over three years when the next election comes around,” said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto to CBC News Calgary. Although the UCP has the lead, Abacus Data said splitting the Alberta NDP from the federal party would change people’s opinion of it. “The biggest hurdle for the Alberta NDP is the fact that there's large numbers of Albertans in many parts of the province who wouldn't even consider voting NDP,” said Coletto. “If you want to send a signal that the Alberta version of this party is different from its federal counterpart, that might be a first step.”Nenshi confirmed a decision about a possible split could be made at the Alberta NDP Convention in the spring. Forty-nine percent of Albertans said they backed the split, and 21% were opposed to it. That included 51% of accessible Alberta NDP voters. Forty-nine percent of Alberta NDP voters and 43% of federal NDP voters said they backed the split. He spoke about conversations he had with voters during the Alberta NDP leadership race who said they did not want to support it because of its ties to the federal party. “That party has been pretty decisively opposed to the energy industry broadly speaking,” said Mount Royal University political science professor Lori Williams to CBC News Calgary. “A lot of people don't want to join the provincial NDP if that means also joining the federal NDP and appearing to support policies that they disagree with.”Abacus Data found the NDP was being perceived differently in Calgary and Edmonton after Nenshi won. Since his victory, the NDP has shrunk an eight-point gap in Calgary to four points. However, its lead in Edmonton has gone from 11 to two points. The UCP remains ahead outside of Calgary and Edmonton by 34 points. Coletto said Nenshi has more work to do in parts of Alberta outside of Calgary. In particular, he said he believes he has “to spend some more time getting people in Edmonton comfortable with him and getting to know him a little bit better.”While the NDP is behind at the moment, Coletto pointed out Nenshi has potential to defeat the UCP. Despite being well-known in some circles, Abacus Data said many Albertans are unfamiliar with him. Seventy-three percent of respondents in Calgary said they know him somewhat well compared to 44% in the rest of Alberta. Coletto said Albertans who know him like him. As he becomes more present in Alberta politics, he said he could turn into a major threat for Premier Danielle Smith. Since he is intelligent and knows how to win elections, he said he could be a tough opponent for Smith. He predicted the UCP knows this because it has started to advertise against him. Forty-two percent of Albertans said they approve of the Alberta government’s performance — up 10 points since March. Thirty-nine percent said they disapprove of it. Coletto concluded by saying the Alberta government has “got to feel pretty good about that.” This is because there are not many incumbents in democratic countries facing similar challenges to Alberta who can say that. “This is still a province that, if an election were today, would likely re-elect Ms. Smith and her party,” he said. “All the underlying numbers, beyond even the horse race, signal that she's in a good position right now.”Nenshi won the Alberta NDP leadership race on the first ballot with 62,746 out of 72,930 votes (86%) on June 22, demolishing his competition. READ MORE: UPDATED: Nenshi crowned new Alberta NDP leaderAlberta NDP MLA Kathleen Ganley (Calgary-Mountain View) came in second place with 5,890 votes (8.1%), MLA Sarah Hoffman (Edmonton-Glenora) finished third with 3,063 (4.2%), and MLA Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse (Edmonton-Rutherford) came fourth with 1,222 (1.7%). He said he was living a great life five months ago. The poll was conducted through a series of partner panels on Lucid among 1,000 Albertan adults from June 25 to 28. It had a margin of error of +/- 3.31 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
