The Alberta United Conservative Party holds a 15 point lead over the NDP, according to a poll conducted by Abacus Data. “In reflecting on the findings of our recent survey, it’s clear that Premier Danielle Smith’s position in Alberta politics remains robust ten months into her mandate,” said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto in a Wednesday press release. “Retaining the support garnered in the last election, her government appears not only to have maintained its winning coalition, but also enjoys a reasonably favourable approval rating amidst challenging economic conditions.”If an election was held today, Abacus Data said 55% of Albertan adults would vote for the UCP. It added two-fifths would choose the Alberta NDP. Another 2% would vote for the Alberta Party and 2% would select another party. Since the last Alberta election, the UCP is up 2% and the NDP is down 4%. Regionally, it said the UCP is ahead by 8% in Calgary and 38% in communities outside of Calgary and Edmonton. In Edmonton, it found the NDP is ahead by 11%. The UCP leads by 22% among men, 7% among women and has a 39 point lead among Albertans aged 60+. Among those under 45 years old, the two parties are tied. When it comes to how Albertans feel about the performance of the government, 32% approve and 38% disapprove. Its net approval is -13% in Calgary, -20% in Edmonton and +11% in the rest of Alberta. Smith has a net approval rating of -2%, with 38% having a positive impression and 40% holding a negative opinion. Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley has a net score of -12%, with 31% having a positive impression and 43% holding a negative opinion. Abacus Data went on to say Alberta NDP leadership candidate Naheed Nenshi was the most well-known of those running. This is because 74% of Albertans had an impression of Nenshi. While Nenshi had a high percentage of those with an impression, NDP leadership candidate Kathleen Ganley came in second place (60%). This was followed by NDP leadership candidates Sarah Hoffman (49%), Gil McGowan (39%) and Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse (37%). Nenshi was the only candidate who had a clear net positive impression. With Nenshi, 31% of Albertans have a positive view of him compared to 23% with a negative one for a score of +8%. Ganley was the only other candidate with a net positive score (+1%). Nenshi's net scores were +14% in Calgary, +9% in Edmonton and -1% in the rest of Alberta. In contrast, Hoffman’s net scores are +2% in Edmonton, -6% in Calgary, and -3% in the rest of the province. While Nenshi was the best-performing NDP leadership candidate, the UCP would win against him in an election with 53% of the vote. The NDP would come in second place at 38%, the Alberta Party would receive 5% and another party would be at 4%. Coletto called the Alberta government being perceived "as having a distinct mission and vision, demonstrating effectiveness in its undertakings and maintaining focus on what many Albertans deem the right priorities, despite criticisms around certain initiatives such as the Alberta Pension Plan and ongoing disputes with Ottawa, which Albertans recognize as an area the government has focused on a lot.”With the NDP leadership race, he said it introduces an intriguing dynamic, particularly with Nenshi’s advantage with name recognition and favourability among the candidates. He acknowledged his endorsement from former NDP leadership candidate Rakhi Pancholi underscores his potential to translate personal brand into political capital. However, he said the broader challenge for the NDP “lies in positioning the party as a credible and appealing alternative to the United Conservative Party under Danielle Smith.” Despite a leadership race garnering national attention, the electoral test will be in persuading UCP supporters to change their votes. Coletto concluded by saying Smith’s brand — characterized by having a clear vision and a focus on priority issues for Albertans — sets a high bar. “The evolving political landscape in Alberta — shaped by both individual leadership qualities and collective party dynamics — continues to be a compelling study in contrasts and possibilities,” he said. Nenshi decided on March 11 he was out with the purple and in with the orange. READ MORE: UPDATED: Nenshi to run for Alberta NDP leaderHe confirmed he would enter the Alberta NDP leadership race. “We need a government that we can trust,” he said..The poll was conducted with 1,000 Albertan adults through a series of partner panels based on Lucid from March 16 to 21. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
