The Alberta United Conservative Party has hung onto most of the support that saw it win against the NDP almost one year ago, according to a poll conducted by Trend Research under the direction of Janet Brown Opinion Research (JBOR) on behalf of CBC News. CBC News reported Wednesday while the Alberta NDP does not have a permanent leader, Trend Research focused on the total available vote for the UCP and it. Total available vote is a figure based on the number of voters very or somewhat likely to look at voting for a party. Trend Research found the UCP was at 48%, and the NDP was at 45%. While the UCP leads the NDP, it won the 2023 election with 52.6% of the vote. JBOR founder Janet Brown said the results are good news for the UCP. “When you take out the people from my survey that didn't express an opinion, that aren’t really sure, I would say that it looks like the UCP has maintained the support that they had from the past election,” said Brown to CBC News. The UCP has begun to enact several major policies since Albertans re-elected it. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith did not campaign on bringing in the Alberta Pension Plan (APP) or a provincial police force during the election. Now Smith has indicated she might follow through on the APP and a provincial police force. Other proposals from Smith that have generated attention include the Alberta government’s gender identity policies, the Alberta Sovereignty Act, and Bill 20. Additionally, it has started to reform Alberta Health Services and has worked to change the electricity market. Brown said it “put a lot of legislation forward that Albertans don't yet know how they should be interpreting.” Right now, she said disapproval is stronger than approval. “But I think what this shows is that this can be a divisive government and the premier can be a divisive premier,” she said. “But she still has her base of support.”Brown pointed out there is good news for the NDP. Although the NDP does not have a permanent leader, she said it remains competitive. She added she thinks the data “says that voters are anxiously watching the NDP leadership race, and they’re watching to see how the NDP brings themselves back as a competitive force in Alberta politics.”Once a new NDP leader is selected, she predicted the numbers will not change much, as most people responding to the poll are likely imagining it being led by leadership candidate Naheed Nenshi. Trend Research asked respondents to rate Smith’s performance as premier on a scale of zero to 10. It said she had an overall average approval rating of 4.5/10. However, 35% had a high impression of her, giving her a score of 7/10 or higher. Two-fifths gave her a low score ranging from zero to three. Another 22% put her between four and six. It called on respondents to think back to the last election. It asked them if Smith is doing better, worse, or about the same as they believed she would at that time. Two-fifths said she was doing about the same as they expected, one-third put her at worse, and 23% felt she had done better. “When I look at these numbers, what I see is a leader who is quite polarizing,” said Brown.“She's got a strong base of people who like her, and she's got a strong base of people who dislike her.”The poll was conducted using telephones and online with 1,200 Albertan adults between May 1 and 15. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
