The Conservatives’ lead over the Liberals has gone down to 10 points, dropping five points since November 30, according to a poll conducted by Abacus Data. “It appears that the Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre have made themselves less acceptable to these past Liberal supporters over the past few weeks and may have even alienated a small portion of their own past supporters, pushing most back into the Liberal fold,” said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto in a Wednesday press release. “While the Conservatives still hold a sizeable 10-point lead, the likelihood they win a majority government is now up in the air if voter intentions as we measure them today were to materialize on election day.” The Liberals would finish in second place with 27% of the vote — up four points since November. After the Liberals was the NDP (19%). This was followed by the Bloc Quebecois (7%), Greens (5%), and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) (4%). Regionally, Abacus Data said the Conservatives have wide leads in the Prairies, lead by 10 points in British Columbia and are ahead by nine in Ontario. It said the Conservatives are eight points ahead of the Liberals in Atlantic Canada, and the Bloc Quebecois are ahead in Quebec by five. Demographically, the Conservatives lead among people aged 30 and older. Among the youngest cohort, the Liberals have opened up a seven point lead over the Conservatives. Abacus Data found no difference in vote intention between men and women. When people were asked if they would consider voting for each of the main political parties, it said 50% would support the Conservatives, 43% for the Liberals, 41% for the NDP, 28% for the Greens, and 19% for the PPC. In Quebec, 49% were open for voting for the Bloc Quebecois. For there to be a five point drop in Conservative support and a four point rise with the Liberals, it said some changes must be happening around public opinion. The evidence from this poll suggests this shift is likely more about reaction to the Conservatives and its decisions and behaviour over the last two weeks. For example, it found some core metrics from the Canadian government are unchanged. The mood of Canada, the government’s approval rating, the desire for change, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s personal image are unchanged from last month. Coletto said the results are “a reminder that the electorate is very much in flux and while the desire for change and general dissatisfaction with the Liberal government and Mr. Trudeau remains deeply problematic for the Liberals, the Conservatives cannot assume that voters are not also evaluating the alternatives.” As he has said from day one, a desire for change is insufficient for a government to be defeated. “These results suggest the Conservatives may have taken a step backwards in their mission to win a majority government, but the fundamental problems facing the Liberals still remain,” he said. This poll comes after Poilievre said on December 6 Trudeau “has ensured that your turkey dinner will have a big fat growing carbon tax caked on top of it.” READ MORE: WATCH: Poilievre says Trudeau is the Grinch who stole Christmas“That is not part of the recipe for turkey dinner that Canadians were looking for,” he said..After manipulation and intimidation by Trudeau, Poilievre said senators gutted Bill C-234, which would have reduced the carbon tax on farmers. Despite him saying he respected the independence of the Senate, he alleged certain senators received intimidating calls from him.The poll was conducted through partner panels with the Lucid exchange platform with 1,919 Canadian adults from December 7 to 12. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The Conservatives’ lead over the Liberals has gone down to 10 points, dropping five points since November 30, according to a poll conducted by Abacus Data. “It appears that the Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre have made themselves less acceptable to these past Liberal supporters over the past few weeks and may have even alienated a small portion of their own past supporters, pushing most back into the Liberal fold,” said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto in a Wednesday press release. “While the Conservatives still hold a sizeable 10-point lead, the likelihood they win a majority government is now up in the air if voter intentions as we measure them today were to materialize on election day.” The Liberals would finish in second place with 27% of the vote — up four points since November. After the Liberals was the NDP (19%). This was followed by the Bloc Quebecois (7%), Greens (5%), and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) (4%). Regionally, Abacus Data said the Conservatives have wide leads in the Prairies, lead by 10 points in British Columbia and are ahead by nine in Ontario. It said the Conservatives are eight points ahead of the Liberals in Atlantic Canada, and the Bloc Quebecois are ahead in Quebec by five. Demographically, the Conservatives lead among people aged 30 and older. Among the youngest cohort, the Liberals have opened up a seven point lead over the Conservatives. Abacus Data found no difference in vote intention between men and women. When people were asked if they would consider voting for each of the main political parties, it said 50% would support the Conservatives, 43% for the Liberals, 41% for the NDP, 28% for the Greens, and 19% for the PPC. In Quebec, 49% were open for voting for the Bloc Quebecois. For there to be a five point drop in Conservative support and a four point rise with the Liberals, it said some changes must be happening around public opinion. The evidence from this poll suggests this shift is likely more about reaction to the Conservatives and its decisions and behaviour over the last two weeks. For example, it found some core metrics from the Canadian government are unchanged. The mood of Canada, the government’s approval rating, the desire for change, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s personal image are unchanged from last month. Coletto said the results are “a reminder that the electorate is very much in flux and while the desire for change and general dissatisfaction with the Liberal government and Mr. Trudeau remains deeply problematic for the Liberals, the Conservatives cannot assume that voters are not also evaluating the alternatives.” As he has said from day one, a desire for change is insufficient for a government to be defeated. “These results suggest the Conservatives may have taken a step backwards in their mission to win a majority government, but the fundamental problems facing the Liberals still remain,” he said. This poll comes after Poilievre said on December 6 Trudeau “has ensured that your turkey dinner will have a big fat growing carbon tax caked on top of it.” READ MORE: WATCH: Poilievre says Trudeau is the Grinch who stole Christmas“That is not part of the recipe for turkey dinner that Canadians were looking for,” he said..After manipulation and intimidation by Trudeau, Poilievre said senators gutted Bill C-234, which would have reduced the carbon tax on farmers. Despite him saying he respected the independence of the Senate, he alleged certain senators received intimidating calls from him.The poll was conducted through partner panels with the Lucid exchange platform with 1,919 Canadian adults from December 7 to 12. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
