A new poll released Wednesday by the Angus Reid Institute shows the UCP has taken the lead over the NDP, but the battle remains for Calgary between Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley for voters..As attack ads reign, new data from the non-profit ARI finds the UCP with a seven-point lead over the NDP in vote intention..Half (51%) of 18- to 34-year-olds say they would vote NDP if the election were today. That's the only age group for whom the NDP is the preferred party, however. The UCP holds a 53% to 38% advantage among Albertans aged 35 to 54 and a 57% to 37% lead among those over the age of 54.."Voting turnout is typically lower for younger voters in Canadian elections," the Angus Reid Institute said.."Approaching three-in-five (57%) men approve of Smith while one-third (34%) hold a favourable view of Notley. Women have a more positive assessment of Notley (48%) than Smith (36%).".The Angus Reid Institute said Calgary remains contested ground, as the infrastructure pledges flow from Smith, and Notley establishes her party’s campaign headquarters in the city, decamping from the party’s traditional stronghold of Edmonton.."In Calgary, the two parties are statistically tied in vote intent – 46% for the UCP, 43% for the NDP," the Angus Reid Institute said.."The NDP does hold an advantage in the province’s largest city: their leader is viewed more positively than Smith. More than two in five (44%) Calgarians say they have a positive impression of Notley while fewer than two-in-five (39%) approve of Smith’s performance as premier so far.".The Angus Reid Institute said in both vote intent and impressions of party leadership, the gap is much wider elsewhere in the province.."The NDP typically performed strongly in Edmonton. Nineteen of the party’s current 23 seats in the legislature are in Edmonton — including one in the Edmonton-adjacent St. Albert. There, Notley holds a significant advantage in appraisal over Smith," the Angus Reid Institute said.."She also holds a slight edge in Calgary, where the NDP will be looking to reclaim some of the seats it won in 2015, but lost in 2019. Outside the province’s two largest cities, however, Smith is viewed much more favourably than her opponent. In Edmonton, the NDP holds an advantage in both, while outside of the two major cities, the UCP is far ahead.".The Angus Reid Institute said while the cost of living remains a dominant issue in the province — 70% of Albertans select it as a top issue — there are divergent priorities among likely voters for the two leading parties..The Angus Reid Institute noted those who say they intend to vote NDP are much more concerned about health care, education and the environment than those who say they would vote UCP if an election were held today.."Meanwhile, likely UCP voters prioritize the economy, energy policy and government spending at higher rates," the Angus Reid Institute said..The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from March 6-13, 2023 among a representative randomized sample of 827 Albertan adults who are members of the Angus Reid Forum..For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by the Angus Reid Institute.
