More than half of Canadians say Alberta’s growing push to leave the country should be taken seriously, a new survey suggests, pushing Western independence back into the national spotlight.Fifty‑two percent of respondents in a Leger poll for the Association for Canadian Studies (ACS) said the threat of Alberta independence requires attention and is slightly higher than the share who worry about Quebec independence. ACS President Jack Jedwab called the finding “surprising.”“A lot more Canadians than I expected think Alberta’s separation threat is very serious,” said Jedwab. “They even rank it above the long standing debate over Quebec.”Concern is highest inside Alberta, where 63% say the rest of Canada should consider Premier Danielle Smith’s warnings that continued federal policies could spark an “unprecedented national unity crisis.” .Under Alberta law, a province‑wide referendum must be held if enough residents sign a petition demanding one.In neighbouring British Columbia, 51% think Alberta’s threat is serious, followed by 54% in Ontario, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan combined. Only 46% of Quebecers agree, the lowest share in the country, while 50% of Atlantic Canadians are worried.When the question shifts to Quebec sovereignty, views flip. Nearly 47% of Quebecers think their own province’s independence should be taken seriously, compared with 31% of Albertans and 32% of Atlantic Canadians.“Each region tends to see its own grievance as more pressing,” said Jedwab.Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals also face scepticism on national unity. .Just 34% of Canadians think his re‑elected government will make the country more cohesive, while 37% disagree, and 29% are unsure.Albertans are most doubtful at 52%, trailed by Manitoba and Saskatchewan at 39%, Quebec at 38%, BC at 35%, Atlantic Canada at 34%, and Ontario at 33%. In every province, at least one‑quarter of people still give the Liberals the benefit of the doubt. Jedwab said the numbers reflect a “polarizing election” and diverging regional expectations.Voting preferences colour the results. Almost 64% of Conservatives say Alberta independence must be taken seriously. .Liberal voters are also uneasy at 48%, as are 47% of NDP. Bloc Quebecois supporters show the least concern at roughly 32%.On the flip side, 51% of Bloc voters insist Quebec sovereignty remains a real threat, compared with 45% of Liberals, 44% of NDP, and 36% of Conservatives.Even where concern is high, most Canadians do not think either province has enough cause to quit Confederation. Fifty-two percent of Albertans believe their province holds legitimate grievances, but support drops to 37% in Manitoba and Saskatchewan and is near one‑third elsewhere.In Quebec, 51% see valid reasons to go, yet backing falls sharply outside the province. .Only 20% of Atlantic Canadians and about one‑quarter of Westerners agree.Jedwab warned that deepening partisan and regional divides could tempt politicians to “leverage separation sentiment” for electoral gain. “Whether that translates into concrete moves toward leaving Canada is the next big question,” said Jedwab.The telephone and online poll of 1,626 adults was conducted May 1–3. Because it is a nonprobability sample, no formal margin of error can be calculated, but a comparable random survey would carry a margin of plus or minus 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
